UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Ireland vs Israel: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Ireland 1-1 Israel. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Ireland (71%), while a draw was rated at only 18%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.7%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (57%): missed.
Match analysis
Ireland and Israel met on Sunday, October 4, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Gradski Stadion, Backa Topola. Before kick-off, our model gave Ireland a 71% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Israel 11%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (12.5%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Ireland have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Israel have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 8. Ireland therefore arrive in far better shape than Israel. On average Ireland score 1.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Israel score 0.80 and concede 1.60. In the table, Ireland sit 3rd with 4 points from 3 games, Israel 4th with 1 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Ireland, 0 for Israel and 0 draws. The most recent ended Israel 0-3 Ireland (Sep 27, 2026). In double chance terms, "Ireland or draw" stands at 89%, "Israel or draw" at 29% and "no draw" at 82%.
In short : Ireland are favourites for this Ireland v Israel, with a 71% win probability from our model. On recent form, Ireland have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Israel have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Ireland – Israel. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ireland 2-0 Israel | 12.5% |
| Ireland 1-0 Israel | 11.4% |
| Ireland 2-1 Israel | 9.5% |
| Ireland 3-0 Israel | 9.2% |
| Ireland 1-1 Israel | 8.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.20 expected goals for Ireland and 0.76 for Israel, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 57% and "both teams to score" at 47%. Ireland keep a clean sheet in 47% of scenarios, Israel in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Ireland expected goals | 2.20 |
| Israel expected goals | 0.76 |
| Both teams to score | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% |
| Ireland clean sheet | 47% |
| Israel clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Ireland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Austria · UEFA Nations League | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Israel · UEFA Nations League | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Kosovo · UEFA Nations League | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Canada · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| May 28, 2026 | Qatar · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
Israel
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Kosovo · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Ireland · UEFA Nations League | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Austria · UEFA Nations League | 1-3 | L |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Albania · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Georgia · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ireland | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Israel | 4 | 1 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Israel 0-3 Ireland | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
Ireland
No absences reported.
Israel
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Ireland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- T. Parrott5/5
- C. Kelleher4/5
- J. Abankwah4/5
- C. Coventry3/5
- C. Ogbene3/5
- D. O'Shea3/5
- J. Molumby3/5
- J. Moylan3/5
- L. Scales3/5
- A. Idah2/5
- F. Azaz2/5
Israel
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Peretz5/5
- N. Stoioanov5/5
- A. Khalaili4/5
- M. Solomon4/5
- O. Gloukh4/5
- R. Revivo4/5
- D. Peretz3/5
- G. Kanichowsky3/5
- D. Turgeman2/5
- Daniel Peretz2/5
- Dor Peretz2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Azerbaijan 1-0 LithuaniaOct 4, 2026
- Malta 1-0 AndorraOct 4, 2026
- Kosovo 1-1 AustriaOct 4, 2026
- Portugal 2-1 NorwayOct 4, 2026
- Wales 0-1 DenmarkOct 4, 2026
- Greece 0-0 GermanyOct 4, 2026
- Netherlands 2-1 SerbiaOct 4, 2026
- Cyprus 2-1 LatviaOct 5, 2026
- Italy 3-1 TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
- France 4-1 BelgiumOct 5, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Ireland vs Israel prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Ireland a 71% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Israel 11%. Ireland are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Ireland vs Israel?
2-0 (12.5%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 3-0 (9.2%) and 1-1 (8.7%).
Will both teams score in Ireland vs Israel?
The probability that both Ireland and Israel score is 47%. Ireland have a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Israel 11%.
How many goals should we expect in Ireland vs Israel?
The model expects 2.96 goals (2.20 for Ireland, 0.76 for Israel). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 80%, over 2.5 goals 57%, over 3.5 goals 34%.
When and where is Ireland vs Israel played?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Gradski Stadion, Backa Topola.
What form are Ireland and Israel in?
Ireland: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded). Israel: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Ireland and Israel?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Ireland, 0 for Israel and 0 draws. The most recent ended Israel 0-3 Ireland (Sep 27, 2026).
What was the Ireland vs Israel result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Ireland 1-1 Israel. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Ireland (71%), while a draw was rated at only 18%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.7%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (57%): missed.
How is the Ireland vs Israel prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.20 for Ireland, 0.76 for Israel) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Ireland predictions
- All Israel predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology