UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Ireland vs Israel prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Ireland vs Israel match is scheduled on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). Ireland start as favourites with a 51% chance of victory; Israel are given 24% and the draw 25%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Ireland have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, Israel have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Ireland score 1.40 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Israel score 1.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, Ireland sit 3rd with 0 points from 1 games, Israel 4th with 0 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ireland and Israel: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Ireland or draw" stands at 76%, "Israel or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Ireland are favourites for this Ireland v Israel, with a 51% win probability from our model. On recent form, Ireland have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Israel have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Ireland – Israel. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ireland 1-1 Israel | 11.8% |
| Ireland 1-0 Israel | 11.4% |
| Ireland 2-1 Israel | 9.5% |
| Ireland 2-0 Israel | 9.3% |
| Ireland 0-1 Israel | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.62 expected goals for Ireland and 1.03 for Israel, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Ireland keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Israel in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Ireland expected goals | 1.62 |
| Israel expected goals | 1.03 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Ireland clean sheet | 36% |
| Israel clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Ireland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Kosovo · UEFA Nations League | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Canada · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| May 28, 2026 | Qatar · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| May 16, 2026 | Grenada · International Friendlies | 5-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | North Macedonia · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
Israel
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Austria · UEFA Nations League | 1-3 | L |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Albania · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Georgia · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Moldova · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 4-1 | W |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Lithuania · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ireland | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Israel | 4 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ireland and Israel: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Ireland
No absences reported.
Israel
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Ireland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Ogbene5/5
- J. Molumby4/5
- T. Parrott4/5
- C. Kelleher3/5
- D. O'Shea3/5
- J. Abankwah3/5
- J. Knight3/5
- L. Scales3/5
- N. Collins3/5
- S. Coleman3/5
- C. Coventry2/5
Israel
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Peretz4/5
- E. Peretz4/5
- O. Gloukh4/5
- R. Revivo4/5
- E. Dasa3/5
- G. Kanichowsky3/5
- N. Stoioanov3/5
- S. Lemkin3/5
- A. Khalaili2/5
- D. Turgeman2/5
- M. Solomon2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Azerbaijan – LithuaniaOct 4, 2026
- Malta – AndorraOct 4, 2026
- Kosovo – AustriaOct 4, 2026
- Portugal – NorwayOct 4, 2026
- Wales – DenmarkOct 4, 2026
- Greece – GermanyOct 4, 2026
- Netherlands – SerbiaOct 4, 2026
- Cyprus – LatviaOct 5, 2026
- Italy – TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
- France – BelgiumOct 5, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Ireland vs Israel prediction?
Our AI gives Ireland a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Israel 24%. Ireland are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Ireland vs Israel?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.3%) and 0-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Ireland vs Israel?
The probability that both Ireland and Israel score is 52%. Ireland have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Israel 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Ireland vs Israel?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.62 for Ireland, 1.03 for Israel). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Ireland vs Israel played?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Ireland and Israel in?
Ireland: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 2 conceded). Israel: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded).
How is the Ireland vs Israel prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.62 for Ireland, 1.03 for Israel) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Ireland predictions
- All Israel predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology