UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Netherlands vs Serbia prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Netherlands vs Serbia match is scheduled on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). With a 62% win probability, Netherlands go in as strong favourites against Serbia (16%), with the draw rated at 22%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (12.4%), ahead of 2-0 (11.8%) and 1-1 (10.3%).
Netherlands are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 13 and conceding 6. Serbia have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 14. Recent momentum is clearly with Netherlands. On average Netherlands score 2.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Serbia score 0.80 and concede 2.80. In the table, Netherlands sit 3rd with 1 points from 1 games, Serbia 4th with 0 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Netherlands and Serbia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Netherlands or draw" stands at 84%, "Serbia or draw" at 38% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Netherlands are tipped by our AI model in this Netherlands v Serbia (62%). In the table, Netherlands (3rd, 1 pts) host Serbia (4th, 0 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Netherlands – Serbia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Netherlands 1-0 Serbia | 12.4% |
| Netherlands 2-0 Serbia | 11.8% |
| Netherlands 1-1 Serbia | 10.3% |
| Netherlands 2-1 Serbia | 9.8% |
| Netherlands 3-0 Serbia | 7.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.73 goals in total (1.90 for Netherlands, 0.83 for Serbia): over 2.5 goals has a 51% probability and both teams to score 48%. Netherlands keep a clean sheet in 44% of scenarios, Serbia in 15%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Netherlands expected goals | 1.90 |
| Serbia expected goals | 0.83 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Netherlands clean sheet | 44% |
| Serbia clean sheet | 15% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Netherlands
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2026 | Morocco · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Tunisia · FIFA World Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Sweden · FIFA World Cup | 5-1 | W |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Japan · FIFA World Cup | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Uzbekistan · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Serbia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Greece · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Mexico · International Friendlies | 1-5 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Cape Verde · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Saudi Arabia · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Spain · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Serbia | 4 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Netherlands and Serbia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Netherlands
No absences reported.
Serbia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Netherlands
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Verbruggen5/5
- C. Gakpo5/5
- D. Dumfries5/5
- F. de Jong5/5
- J. P. van Hecke5/5
- R. Gravenberch5/5
- V. van Dijk5/5
- D. Malen4/5
- M. van de Ven4/5
- T. Reijnders4/5
- B. Brobbey3/5
Serbia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Stankovic4/5
- S. Erakovic3/5
- S. Pavlovic3/5
- V. Birmancevic3/5
- A. Terzic2/5
- F. Stankovic2/5
- N. Milenkovic2/5
- S. Milinkovic-Savic2/5
- A. Avdic1/5
- A. Mitrovic1/5
- A. Zivkovic1/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Azerbaijan – LithuaniaOct 4, 2026
- Malta – AndorraOct 4, 2026
- Kosovo – AustriaOct 4, 2026
- Portugal – NorwayOct 4, 2026
- Wales – DenmarkOct 4, 2026
- Greece – GermanyOct 4, 2026
- Ireland – IsraelOct 4, 2026
- Cyprus – LatviaOct 5, 2026
- Italy – TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
- France – BelgiumOct 5, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Netherlands vs Serbia prediction?
Our AI gives Netherlands a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Serbia 16%. Netherlands are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Netherlands vs Serbia?
1-0 (12.4%), followed by 2-0 (11.8%), 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 3-0 (7.5%).
Will both teams score in Netherlands vs Serbia?
The probability that both Netherlands and Serbia score is 48%. Netherlands have a 44% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Serbia 15%.
How many goals should we expect in Netherlands vs Serbia?
The model expects 2.73 goals (1.90 for Netherlands, 0.83 for Serbia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is Netherlands vs Serbia played?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Netherlands and Serbia in?
Netherlands: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 6 conceded). Serbia: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 14 conceded).
How is the Netherlands vs Serbia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.90 for Netherlands, 0.83 for Serbia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Netherlands predictions
- All Serbia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology