UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Netherlands vs Serbia: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Netherlands 2-1 Serbia. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Netherlands was the model's favourite outcome (67%). The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (9.1%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): missed.
Match analysis
Netherlands vs Serbia was played on Sunday, October 4, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven. Before kick-off, our model gave Netherlands a 67% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Serbia 12%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (15.2%), ahead of 2-0 (14.4%) and 1-1 (9.6%).
Netherlands are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 6. Serbia have not won any of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 5 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 14. Recent momentum is clearly with Netherlands. On average Netherlands score 1.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Serbia score 0.60 and concede 2.80. In the table, Netherlands sit 2nd with 5 points from 3 games, Serbia 4th with 0 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Netherlands, 0 for Serbia and 0 draws. The most recent ended Serbia 1-2 Netherlands (Sep 27, 2026). In double chance terms, "Netherlands or draw" stands at 88%, "Serbia or draw" at 33% and "no draw" at 79%.
In short : Netherlands are tipped by our AI model in this Netherlands v Serbia (67%). In the table, Netherlands (2nd, 5 pts) host Serbia (4th, 0 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Netherlands – Serbia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (15.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 57% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Netherlands 1-0 Serbia | 15.2% |
| Netherlands 2-0 Serbia | 14.4% |
| Netherlands 1-1 Serbia | 9.6% |
| Netherlands 3-0 Serbia | 9.1% |
| Netherlands 2-1 Serbia | 9.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.52 goals in total (1.89 for Netherlands, 0.63 for Serbia): over 2.5 goals has a 46% probability and both teams to score 40%. Netherlands keep a clean sheet in 53% of scenarios, Serbia in 15%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Netherlands expected goals | 1.89 |
| Serbia expected goals | 0.63 |
| Both teams to score | 40% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% |
| Netherlands clean sheet | 53% |
| Serbia clean sheet | 15% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Netherlands
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Greece · UEFA Nations League | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Serbia · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Germany · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Morocco · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Tunisia · FIFA World Cup | 3-1 | W |
Serbia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Germany · UEFA Nations League | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Netherlands · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Greece · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Mexico · International Friendlies | 1-5 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Cape Verde · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| Serbia | 4 | 0 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Serbia 1-2 Netherlands | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
Netherlands
No absences reported.
Serbia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Netherlands
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Verbruggen5/5
- D. Dumfries5/5
- V. van Dijk5/5
- C. Gakpo4/5
- C. Summerville4/5
- M. van de Ven4/5
- R. Gravenberch4/5
- B. Brobbey3/5
- T. Reijnders3/5
- F. de Jong2/5
- J. P. van Hecke2/5
Serbia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Živković3/5
- A. Stankovic2/5
- D. Tadić2/5
- F. Kostić2/5
- F. Stankovic2/5
- K. Nedeljković2/5
- L. Jović2/5
- N. Gudelj2/5
- N. Maksimović2/5
- S. Babić2/5
- S. Erakovic2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Azerbaijan 1-0 LithuaniaOct 4, 2026
- Malta 1-0 AndorraOct 4, 2026
- Kosovo 1-1 AustriaOct 4, 2026
- Portugal 2-1 NorwayOct 4, 2026
- Wales 0-1 DenmarkOct 4, 2026
- Greece 0-0 GermanyOct 4, 2026
- Ireland 1-1 IsraelOct 4, 2026
- Cyprus 2-1 LatviaOct 5, 2026
- Italy 3-1 TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
- France 4-1 BelgiumOct 5, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Netherlands vs Serbia prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Netherlands a 67% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Serbia 12%. Netherlands are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Netherlands vs Serbia?
1-0 (15.2%), followed by 2-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (9.6%), 3-0 (9.1%) and 2-1 (9.1%).
Will both teams score in Netherlands vs Serbia?
The probability that both Netherlands and Serbia score is 40%. Netherlands have a 53% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Serbia 15%.
How many goals should we expect in Netherlands vs Serbia?
The model expects 2.52 goals (1.89 for Netherlands, 0.63 for Serbia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 46%, over 3.5 goals 25%.
When and where is Netherlands vs Serbia played?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven.
What form are Netherlands and Serbia in?
Netherlands: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded). Serbia: 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 14 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Netherlands and Serbia?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Netherlands, 0 for Serbia and 0 draws. The most recent ended Serbia 1-2 Netherlands (Sep 27, 2026).
What was the Netherlands vs Serbia result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Netherlands 2-1 Serbia. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Netherlands was the model's favourite outcome (67%). The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (9.1%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): missed.
How is the Netherlands vs Serbia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.89 for Netherlands, 0.63 for Serbia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Netherlands predictions
- All Serbia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology