UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Malta vs Andorra: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Malta 1-0 Andorra. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Malta was the model's favourite outcome (83%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.5%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (66%): missed.
Match analysis
Malta vs Andorra was played on Sunday, October 4, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Ta'Qali National Stadium, Takali. Before kick-off, our model gave Malta a 83% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Andorra 5%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (13.2%), ahead of 3-0 (12.2%) and 1-0 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Malta have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 4. Andorra have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 8. Recent momentum is clearly with Malta. On average Malta score 1.60 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Andorra score 0.60 and concede 1.60. In the table, Malta sit 1st with 4 points from 2 games, Andorra 3rd with 1 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Malta, 0 for Andorra and 2 draws. The most recent ended Malta 0-0 Andorra (Nov 19, 2024). In double chance terms, "Malta or draw" stands at 95%, "Andorra or draw" at 17% and "no draw" at 88%.
In short : Malta are favourites for this Malta v Andorra, with a 83% win probability from our model. On recent form, Malta have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Andorra have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Malta – Andorra. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Malta 2-0 Andorra | 13.2% |
| Malta 3-0 Andorra | 12.2% |
| Malta 1-0 Andorra | 9.5% |
| Malta 4-0 Andorra | 8.5% |
| Malta 2-1 Andorra | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.38 goals in total (2.78 for Malta, 0.60 for Andorra): over 2.5 goals has a 66% probability and both teams to score 42%. Everything points to an open game. Malta keep a clean sheet in 55% of scenarios, Andorra in 6%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Malta expected goals | 2.78 |
| Andorra expected goals | 0.60 |
| Both teams to score | 42% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% |
| Malta clean sheet | 55% |
| Andorra clean sheet | 6% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Malta
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Gibraltar · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Liechtenstein · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Andorra · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Azerbaijan · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Slovakia · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
Andorra
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Lithuania · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Gibraltar · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Malta · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Kosovo · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Liechtenstein · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malta | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| Andorra | 3 | 1 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2024 | Malta 0-0 Andorra | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 10, 2024 | Andorra 0-1 Malta | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 14, 2020 | Malta 3-1 Andorra | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 10, 2020 | Andorra 0-0 Malta | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
Malta
No absences reported.
Andorra
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Malta
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Satariano3/5
- J. C. Corbalan3/5
- J. Mbong3/5
- K. Ewurum3/5
- K. Shaw3/5
- M. Guillaumier3/5
- T. Teuma3/5
- E. Pepe2/5
- H. Bonello2/5
- R. Al Tumi2/5
- Y. Chouaref2/5
Andorra
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Aron Rodrigo2/5
- B. Borra Font2/5
- E. Izquierdo2/5
- Éric Izquierdo2/5
- I. Alvarez2/5
- I. Oliveira2/5
- Iker Álvarez2/5
- M. San Nicolas2/5
- Max Llovera2/5
- Moisés San Nicolás2/5
- P. Babot2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Spain 3-1 CzechiaOct 3, 2026
- Switzerland 2-1 SloveniaOct 3, 2026
- North Macedonia 0-2 ScotlandOct 3, 2026
- Azerbaijan 1-0 LithuaniaOct 4, 2026
- Kosovo 1-1 AustriaOct 4, 2026
- Portugal 2-1 NorwayOct 4, 2026
- Wales 0-1 DenmarkOct 4, 2026
- Greece 0-0 GermanyOct 4, 2026
- Ireland 1-1 IsraelOct 4, 2026
- Netherlands 2-1 SerbiaOct 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Malta vs Andorra prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Malta a 83% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Andorra 5%. Malta are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Malta vs Andorra?
2-0 (13.2%), followed by 3-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (9.5%), 4-0 (8.5%) and 2-1 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Malta vs Andorra?
The probability that both Malta and Andorra score is 42%. Malta have a 55% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Andorra 6%.
How many goals should we expect in Malta vs Andorra?
The model expects 3.38 goals (2.78 for Malta, 0.60 for Andorra). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 85%, over 2.5 goals 66%, over 3.5 goals 44%.
When and where is Malta vs Andorra played?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Ta'Qali National Stadium, Takali.
What form are Malta and Andorra in?
Malta: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 4 conceded). Andorra: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Malta and Andorra?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Malta, 0 for Andorra and 2 draws. The most recent ended Malta 0-0 Andorra (Nov 19, 2024).
What was the Malta vs Andorra result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Malta 1-0 Andorra. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Malta was the model's favourite outcome (83%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.5%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (66%): missed.
How is the Malta vs Andorra prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.78 for Malta, 0.60 for Andorra) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Malta predictions
- All Andorra predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology