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UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)

Malta vs Andorra prediction: correct score and AI tips

MaltaMalta–AndorraAndorra

Match analysis

UEFA Nations League: the Malta vs Andorra match is scheduled on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time). With a 84% win probability, Malta go in as strong favourites against Andorra (5%), with the draw rated at 11%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (13.0%), ahead of 3-0 (12.7%) and 4-0 (9.2%).

Over their last 5 matches, Malta have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 8. Andorra have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Malta score 1.00 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Andorra score 0.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, Malta sit 1st with 3 points from 1 games, Andorra 3rd with 0 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.

In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Malta, 0 for Andorra and 2 draws. The most recent ended Malta 0-0 Andorra (Nov 19, 2024). In double chance terms, "Malta or draw" stands at 95%, "Andorra or draw" at 16% and "no draw" at 89%.

In short : Malta are favourites for this Malta v Andorra, with a 84% win probability from our model. On recent form, Malta have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Andorra have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

84%
Malta (Win)
11%
Draw
5%
Andorra (Win)

Double chance

95%
Malta or draw
16%
Andorra or draw
89%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Malta – Andorra. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Malta 2-0 Andorra13.0%
Malta 3-0 Andorra12.7%
Malta 4-0 Andorra9.2%
Malta 1-0 Andorra8.9%
Malta 2-1 Andorra7.4%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.49 goals in total (2.92 for Malta, 0.57 for Andorra): over 2.5 goals has a 68% probability and both teams to score 41%. Everything points to an open game. Malta keep a clean sheet in 57% of scenarios, Andorra in 5%.

Probability
Malta expected goals2.92
Andorra expected goals0.57
Both teams to score41%
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Over 3.5 goals46%
Malta clean sheet57%
Andorra clean sheet5%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Malta

DateOpponentScore
Sep 24, 2026Andorra · UEFA Nations League2-1W
Jun 5, 2026Azerbaijan · International Friendlies2-0W
Jun 1, 2026Slovakia · International Friendlies1-2L
Mar 31, 2026Luxembourg · UEFA Nations League0-3L
Mar 26, 2026Luxembourg · UEFA Nations League0-2L

Andorra

DateOpponentScore
Sep 24, 2026Malta · UEFA Nations League1-2L
Jun 7, 2026Kosovo · International Friendlies0-3L
Jun 4, 2026Liechtenstein · International Friendlies2-0W
May 29, 2026Iraq · International Friendlies0-1L
Mar 31, 2026San Marino · International Friendlies0-0D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Malta131
Andorra301

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Nov 19, 2024Malta 0-0 AndorraUEFA Nations League
Sep 10, 2024Andorra 0-1 MaltaUEFA Nations League
Nov 14, 2020Malta 3-1 AndorraUEFA Nations League
Oct 10, 2020Andorra 0-0 MaltaUEFA Nations League

Out and doubtful

Malta

No absences reported.

Andorra

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Malta

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Alexander Satariano3/5
  • Enrico Pepe3/5
  • Henry Bonello3/5
  • Irvin Cardona3/5
  • Matthew Guillaumier3/5
  • Paul Mbong3/5
  • Ryan Camenzuli3/5
  • Ylyas Chouaref3/5
  • Zach Muscat3/5
  • A. Satariano2/5
  • J. C. Corbalan2/5

Andorra

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • I. Oliveira4/5
  • M. San Nicolas4/5
  • E. Izquierdo3/5
  • G. Lopez3/5
  • M. Llovera3/5
  • O. Remolins3/5
  • P. Babot3/5
  • A. Martinez2/5
  • A. Rodrigo Tapia2/5
  • A. Ruiz2/5
  • B. Borra Font2/5

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Malta vs Andorra prediction?

Our AI gives Malta a 84% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Andorra 5%. Malta are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for Malta vs Andorra?

2-0 (13.0%), followed by 3-0 (12.7%), 4-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.9%) and 2-1 (7.4%).

Will both teams score in Malta vs Andorra?

The probability that both Malta and Andorra score is 41%. Malta have a 57% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Andorra 5%.

How many goals should we expect in Malta vs Andorra?

The model expects 3.49 goals (2.92 for Malta, 0.57 for Andorra). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 68%, over 3.5 goals 46%.

When and where is Malta vs Andorra played?

Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.

What form are Malta and Andorra in?

Malta: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 8 conceded). Andorra: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Malta and Andorra?

In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Malta, 0 for Andorra and 2 draws. The most recent ended Malta 0-0 Andorra (Nov 19, 2024).

How is the Malta vs Andorra prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.92 for Malta, 0.57 for Andorra) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained