UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Switzerland vs Slovenia: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Switzerland 2-1 Slovenia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Switzerland at 49%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.9%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (42%): missed.
Match analysis
Switzerland and Slovenia met on Saturday, October 3, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Swissporarena, Lucerne. Before kick-off, our model gave Switzerland a 49% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Slovenia 24%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (13.7%), followed by 1-1 (12.6%) and 2-0 (9.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Switzerland have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Slovenia have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Switzerland score 1.80 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Slovenia score 1.40 and concede 1.00. In the table, Switzerland sit 1st with 6 points from 2 games, Slovenia 2nd with 4 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Switzerland, 0 for Slovenia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Slovenia 0-0 Switzerland (Oct 13, 2025). In double chance terms, "Switzerland or draw" stands at 76%, "Slovenia or draw" at 51% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Our model backs Switzerland to edge Slovenia (49% probability). On recent form, Switzerland have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Slovenia have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Switzerland – Slovenia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 54% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Switzerland 1-0 Slovenia | 13.7% |
| Switzerland 1-1 Slovenia | 12.6% |
| Switzerland 2-0 Slovenia | 9.7% |
| Switzerland 0-0 Slovenia | 9.6% |
| Switzerland 2-1 Slovenia | 8.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.42 expected goals for Switzerland and 0.92 for Slovenia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 42% and "both teams to score" at 46%. Few goals are expected here. Switzerland keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Slovenia in 24%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Switzerland expected goals | 1.42 |
| Slovenia expected goals | 0.92 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% |
| Switzerland clean sheet | 40% |
| Slovenia clean sheet | 24% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Switzerland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Scotland · UEFA Nations League | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 26, 2026 | North Macedonia · UEFA Nations League | 3-0 | W |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Argentina · FIFA World Cup | 1-3 | L |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Colombia · FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | D |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Algeria · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
Slovenia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | North Macedonia · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Scotland · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Croatia · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Cyprus · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Montenegro · International Friendlies | 3-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 1 | 6 | 2 |
| Slovenia | 2 | 4 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | Slovenia 0-0 Switzerland | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Switzerland 3-0 Slovenia | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
Out and doubtful
Switzerland
No absences reported.
Slovenia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Switzerland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Ndoye5/5
- G. Kobel5/5
- M. Akanji5/5
- N. Elvedi5/5
- R. Freuler5/5
- A. Jashari3/5
- B. Embolo3/5
- D. Zakaria3/5
- F. Rieder3/5
- G. Xhaka3/5
- J. Manzambi3/5
Slovenia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Bijol5/5
- J. Oblak4/5
- Z. Vipotnik4/5
- D. Brekalo3/5
- D. Sturm3/5
- A. Čerin2/5
- A. Gnezda Cerin2/5
- D. Šturm2/5
- E. Janza2/5
- E. Janža2/5
- M. Ratnik2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Finland 2-1 AlbaniaOct 3, 2026
- Croatia 0-7 EnglandOct 3, 2026
- Estonia 1-0 LuxembourgOct 3, 2026
- Belarus 4-0 San MarinoOct 3, 2026
- Iceland 3-0 BulgariaOct 3, 2026
- Spain 3-1 CzechiaOct 3, 2026
- North Macedonia 0-2 ScotlandOct 3, 2026
- Azerbaijan 1-0 LithuaniaOct 4, 2026
- Malta 1-0 AndorraOct 4, 2026
- Kosovo 1-1 AustriaOct 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Switzerland vs Slovenia prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Switzerland a 49% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Slovenia 24%. Switzerland are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Switzerland vs Slovenia?
1-0 (13.7%), followed by 1-1 (12.6%), 2-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.6%) and 2-1 (8.9%).
Will both teams score in Switzerland vs Slovenia?
The probability that both Switzerland and Slovenia score is 46%. Switzerland have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Slovenia 24%.
How many goals should we expect in Switzerland vs Slovenia?
The model expects 2.34 goals (1.42 for Switzerland, 0.92 for Slovenia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 68%, over 2.5 goals 42%, over 3.5 goals 21%.
When and where is Switzerland vs Slovenia played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Swissporarena, Lucerne.
What form are Switzerland and Slovenia in?
Switzerland: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 3 conceded). Slovenia: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Switzerland and Slovenia?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Switzerland, 0 for Slovenia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Slovenia 0-0 Switzerland (Oct 13, 2025).
What was the Switzerland vs Slovenia result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Switzerland 2-1 Slovenia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Switzerland at 49%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.9%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (42%): missed.
How is the Switzerland vs Slovenia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.42 for Switzerland, 0.92 for Slovenia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Switzerland predictions
- All Slovenia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology