UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Switzerland vs Slovenia prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Switzerland take on Slovenia on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. Switzerland start as favourites with a 51% chance of victory; Slovenia are given 24% and the draw 25%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (12.3%), followed by 1-1 (12.1%) and 2-0 (9.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Switzerland have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Slovenia have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 7. Switzerland therefore arrive in far better shape than Slovenia. On average Switzerland score 1.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Slovenia score 1.20 and concede 1.40.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Switzerland, 0 for Slovenia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Slovenia 0-0 Switzerland (Oct 13, 2025). In double chance terms, "Switzerland or draw" stands at 76%, "Slovenia or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Our model backs Switzerland to edge Slovenia (51% probability). On recent form, Switzerland have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Slovenia have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 49%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Switzerland – Slovenia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Switzerland 1-0 Slovenia | 12.3% |
| Switzerland 1-1 Slovenia | 12.1% |
| Switzerland 2-0 Slovenia | 9.6% |
| Switzerland 2-1 Slovenia | 9.4% |
| Switzerland 0-0 Slovenia | 8.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.55 expected goals for Switzerland and 0.98 for Slovenia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 46% and "both teams to score" at 49%. Switzerland keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Slovenia in 21%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Switzerland expected goals | 1.55 |
| Slovenia expected goals | 0.98 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% |
| Switzerland clean sheet | 38% |
| Slovenia clean sheet | 21% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Switzerland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 12, 2026 | Argentina · FIFA World Cup | 1-3 | L |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Colombia · FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | D |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Algeria · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Canada · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · FIFA World Cup | 4-1 | W |
Slovenia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Croatia · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Cyprus · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Montenegro · International Friendlies | 3-2 | W |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Hungary · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Sweden · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenia | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | Slovenia 0-0 Switzerland | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Switzerland 3-0 Slovenia | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
Out and doubtful
Switzerland
No absences reported.
Slovenia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Switzerland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Embolo4/5
- G. Kobel4/5
- G. Xhaka4/5
- M. Akanji4/5
- N. Elvedi4/5
- R. Freuler4/5
- R. Rodriguez4/5
- D. Ndoye3/5
- D. Zakaria2/5
- F. Rieder2/5
- J. Manzambi2/5
Slovenia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Sturm5/5
- J. Bijol5/5
- A. Gnezda Cerin4/5
- E. Janza4/5
- V. Drkusic4/5
- Z. Vipotnik4/5
- I. Vekic3/5
- M. Ratnik3/5
- T. Elsnik3/5
- Z. Karnicnik3/5
- A. Sporar2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Belarus – San MarinoOct 3, 2026
- Iceland – BulgariaOct 3, 2026
- Spain – CzechiaOct 3, 2026
- North Macedonia – ScotlandOct 3, 2026
- Azerbaijan – LithuaniaOct 4, 2026
- Malta – AndorraOct 4, 2026
- Kosovo – AustriaOct 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Switzerland vs Slovenia prediction?
Our AI gives Switzerland a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Slovenia 24%. Switzerland are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Switzerland vs Slovenia?
1-0 (12.3%), followed by 1-1 (12.1%), 2-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.4%) and 0-0 (8.0%).
Will both teams score in Switzerland vs Slovenia?
The probability that both Switzerland and Slovenia score is 49%. Switzerland have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Slovenia 21%.
How many goals should we expect in Switzerland vs Slovenia?
The model expects 2.53 goals (1.55 for Switzerland, 0.98 for Slovenia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 46%, over 3.5 goals 25%.
When and where is Switzerland vs Slovenia played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Switzerland and Slovenia in?
Switzerland: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded). Slovenia: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Switzerland and Slovenia?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Switzerland, 0 for Slovenia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Slovenia 0-0 Switzerland (Oct 13, 2025).
How is the Switzerland vs Slovenia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.55 for Switzerland, 0.98 for Slovenia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Switzerland predictions
- All Slovenia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology