UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Finland vs Albania prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Finland vs Albania match is scheduled on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time). Finland start as favourites with a 56% chance of victory; Albania are given 20% and the draw 24%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 1-1 (11.2%) and 2-0 (10.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Finland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Albania have not won any of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 5 defeats), scoring 1 and conceding 7. Finland therefore arrive in far better shape than Albania. On average Finland score 1.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Albania score 0.20 and concede 1.40.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Finland and Albania: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Finland or draw" stands at 80%, "Albania or draw" at 44% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Finland are favourites for this Finland v Albania, with a 56% win probability from our model. On recent form, Finland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Albania are struggling (5 losses in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Finland – Albania. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Finland 1-0 Albania | 11.8% |
| Finland 1-1 Albania | 11.2% |
| Finland 2-0 Albania | 10.3% |
| Finland 2-1 Albania | 9.8% |
| Finland 0-0 Albania | 6.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.75 expected goals for Finland and 0.95 for Albania, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 51% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Finland keep a clean sheet in 39% of scenarios, Albania in 17%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Finland expected goals | 1.75 |
| Albania expected goals | 0.95 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Finland clean sheet | 39% |
| Albania clean sheet | 17% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Finland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Hungary · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Germany · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Cape Verde · FIFA Series | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | New Zealand · FIFA Series | 2-0 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Andorra · International Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
Albania
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Luxembourg · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Israel · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Ukraine · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Poland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-2 | L |
| Nov 16, 2025 | England · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finland | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Albania | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Finland and Albania: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Finland
No absences reported.
Albania
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Finland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Markhiev4/5
- A. Suhonen4/5
- L. Walta4/5
- V. Koski4/5
- J. Pohjanpalo3/5
- L. Hradecky3/5
- N. Alho3/5
- N. Skytta3/5
- R. Mahuta3/5
- O. Antman2/5
- T. Miettinen2/5
Albania
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Hoxha5/5
- B. Djimsiti5/5
- E. Hysaj5/5
- K. Asllani5/5
- Q. Laci5/5
- M. Mitaj4/5
- M. Uzuni4/5
- N. Bajrami3/5
- T. Strakosha3/5
- Y. Ramadani3/5
- A. Ajeti2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Belgium – TürkiyeOct 2, 2026
- Faroe Islands – SlovakiaOct 2, 2026
- Ukraine – Northern IrelandOct 2, 2026
- Croatia – EnglandOct 3, 2026
- Estonia – LuxembourgOct 3, 2026
- Belarus – San MarinoOct 3, 2026
- Iceland – BulgariaOct 3, 2026
- Spain – CzechiaOct 3, 2026
- Switzerland – SloveniaOct 3, 2026
- North Macedonia – ScotlandOct 3, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Finland vs Albania prediction?
Our AI gives Finland a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Albania 20%. Finland are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Finland vs Albania?
1-0 (11.8%), followed by 1-1 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.7%).
Will both teams score in Finland vs Albania?
The probability that both Finland and Albania score is 51%. Finland have a 39% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Albania 17%.
How many goals should we expect in Finland vs Albania?
The model expects 2.70 goals (1.75 for Finland, 0.95 for Albania). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is Finland vs Albania played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Finland and Albania in?
Finland: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded). Albania: 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 7 conceded).
How is the Finland vs Albania prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.75 for Finland, 0.95 for Albania) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Finland predictions
- All Albania predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology