UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Finland vs Albania: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Finland 2-1 Albania. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Finland at 45%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.1%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
Match analysis
Finland and Albania met on Saturday, October 3, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Helsinki Olympic Stadium, Helsinki. Before kick-off, our model gave Finland a 45% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Albania 29%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.3%), followed by 1-0 (10.9%) and 2-1 (9.1%).
Finland have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Albania have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Finland score 1.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Albania score 1.00 and concede 0.60. In the table, Finland sit 2nd with 4 points from 2 games, Albania 1st with 6 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Finland and Albania: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Finland or draw" stands at 71%, "Albania or draw" at 55% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Finland are favourites for this Finland v Albania, with a 45% win probability from our model. On recent form, Finland have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Albania have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Finland – Albania. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Finland 1-1 Albania | 12.3% |
| Finland 1-0 Albania | 10.9% |
| Finland 2-1 Albania | 9.1% |
| Finland 0-1 Albania | 8.4% |
| Finland 2-0 Albania | 8.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.47 expected goals for Finland and 1.13 for Albania, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Finland keep a clean sheet in 32% of scenarios, Albania in 23%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Finland expected goals | 1.47 |
| Albania expected goals | 1.13 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| Finland clean sheet | 32% |
| Albania clean sheet | 23% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Finland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Belarus · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 26, 2026 | San Marino · UEFA Nations League | 7-0 | W |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Hungary · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Germany · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Cape Verde · FIFA Series | 1-1 | D |
Albania
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | San Marino · UEFA Nations League | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Belarus · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Luxembourg · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Israel · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Ukraine · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finland | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Albania | 1 | 6 | 2 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Finland and Albania: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Finland
No absences reported.
Albania
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Finland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Walta5/5
- V. Koski5/5
- J. Pohjanpalo4/5
- A. Markhiev3/5
- A. Suhonen3/5
- L. Hradecky3/5
- R. Mahuta3/5
- T. Keskinen3/5
- T. Miettinen3/5
- A. Marhiev2/5
- J. Lähteenmäki2/5
Albania
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Djimsiti5/5
- K. Asllani5/5
- A. Hoxha4/5
- E. Hysaj4/5
- M. Mitaj4/5
- A. Sherri3/5
- M. Uzuni3/5
- Q. Laci3/5
- Y. Ramadani3/5
- A. Broja2/5
- A. Ismajli2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Belgium 3-0 TürkiyeOct 2, 2026
- Faroe Islands 1-1 SlovakiaOct 2, 2026
- Ukraine 0-3 Northern IrelandOct 2, 2026
- Croatia 0-7 EnglandOct 3, 2026
- Estonia 1-0 LuxembourgOct 3, 2026
- Belarus 4-0 San MarinoOct 3, 2026
- Iceland 3-0 BulgariaOct 3, 2026
- Spain 3-1 CzechiaOct 3, 2026
- Switzerland 2-1 SloveniaOct 3, 2026
- North Macedonia 0-2 ScotlandOct 3, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Finland vs Albania prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Finland a 45% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Albania 29%. Finland are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Finland vs Albania?
1-1 (12.3%), followed by 1-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.4%) and 2-0 (8.0%).
Will both teams score in Finland vs Albania?
The probability that both Finland and Albania score is 52%. Finland have a 32% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Albania 23%.
How many goals should we expect in Finland vs Albania?
The model expects 2.60 goals (1.47 for Finland, 1.13 for Albania). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is Finland vs Albania played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Helsinki Olympic Stadium, Helsinki.
What form are Finland and Albania in?
Finland: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded). Albania: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 3 conceded).
What was the Finland vs Albania result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Finland 2-1 Albania. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Finland at 45%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.1%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
How is the Finland vs Albania prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.47 for Finland, 1.13 for Albania) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Finland predictions
- All Albania predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology