UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
North Macedonia vs Scotland prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the North Macedonia vs Scotland match is scheduled on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). The edge goes to North Macedonia (53%), ahead of the draw (26%) and a Scotland win (21%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (14.4%), ahead of 1-1 (12.1%) and 2-0 (10.9%).
North Macedonia have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 1 and conceding 15. Over their last 5 matches, Scotland have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Scotland. On average North Macedonia score 0.20 and concede 3.00 goals per game; Scotland score 1.80 and concede 1.00.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between North Macedonia and Scotland: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "North Macedonia or draw" stands at 79%, "Scotland or draw" at 47% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : North Macedonia are tipped by our AI model in this North Macedonia v Scotland (53%). On recent form, North Macedonia have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5 while Scotland have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as North Macedonia – Scotland. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 56% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| North Macedonia 1-0 Scotland | 14.4% |
| North Macedonia 1-1 Scotland | 12.1% |
| North Macedonia 2-0 Scotland | 10.9% |
| North Macedonia 0-0 Scotland | 9.5% |
| North Macedonia 2-1 Scotland | 9.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.35 goals in total (1.51 for North Macedonia, 0.84 for Scotland): over 2.5 goals has a 42% probability and both teams to score 44%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. North Macedonia keep a clean sheet in 43% of scenarios, Scotland in 22%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| North Macedonia expected goals | 1.51 |
| Scotland expected goals | 0.84 |
| Both teams to score | 44% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% |
| North Macedonia clean sheet | 43% |
| Scotland clean sheet | 22% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
North Macedonia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 2026 | Türkiye · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
| May 29, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Ireland · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Denmark · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-4 | L |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Wales · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-7 | L |
Scotland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | Brazil · FIFA World Cup | 0-3 | L |
| Jun 19, 2026 | Morocco · FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Haiti · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Bolivia · International Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
| May 30, 2026 | Curaçao · International Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Macedonia | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Scotland | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between North Macedonia and Scotland: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
North Macedonia
No absences reported.
Scotland
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
North Macedonia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Elmas5/5
- G. Zajkov5/5
- S. Dimitrievski5/5
- D. Velkovski4/5
- B. Miovski3/5
- E. Bardhi3/5
- E. Rastoder3/5
- J. Atanasov3/5
- S. Herrera3/5
- A. Stojcevski2/5
- D. Churlinov2/5
Scotland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Robertson5/5
- A. Gunn4/5
- B. Gannon-Doak4/5
- J. Hendry4/5
- L. Ferguson4/5
- L. Shankland4/5
- S. McTominay4/5
- A. Hickey3/5
- C. Adams3/5
- G. Hanley3/5
- J. McGinn3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the North Macedonia vs Scotland prediction?
Our AI gives North Macedonia a 53% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Scotland 21%. North Macedonia are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for North Macedonia vs Scotland?
1-0 (14.4%), followed by 1-1 (12.1%), 2-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (9.1%).
Will both teams score in North Macedonia vs Scotland?
The probability that both North Macedonia and Scotland score is 44%. North Macedonia have a 43% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Scotland 22%.
How many goals should we expect in North Macedonia vs Scotland?
The model expects 2.35 goals (1.51 for North Macedonia, 0.84 for Scotland). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 68%, over 2.5 goals 42%, over 3.5 goals 21%.
When and where is North Macedonia vs Scotland played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are North Macedonia and Scotland in?
North Macedonia: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 15 conceded). Scotland: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded).
How is the North Macedonia vs Scotland prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.51 for North Macedonia, 0.84 for Scotland) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All North Macedonia predictions
- All Scotland predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology