UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Iceland vs Bulgaria prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Iceland vs Bulgaria match is scheduled on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time). The edge goes to Iceland (46%), ahead of the draw (26%) and a Bulgaria win (28%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.2%), ahead of 1-0 (10.9%) and 2-1 (9.2%).
Iceland have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 11. Over their last 5 matches, Bulgaria have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 15 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Bulgaria. On average Iceland score 0.60 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Bulgaria score 3.00 and concede 1.20.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Iceland and Bulgaria: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Iceland or draw" stands at 72%, "Bulgaria or draw" at 54% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Iceland are favourites for this Iceland v Bulgaria, with a 46% win probability from our model. On recent form, Iceland have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5 while Bulgaria have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Iceland – Bulgaria. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Iceland 1-1 Bulgaria | 12.2% |
| Iceland 1-0 Bulgaria | 10.9% |
| Iceland 2-1 Bulgaria | 9.2% |
| Iceland 2-0 Bulgaria | 8.2% |
| Iceland 0-1 Bulgaria | 8.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.62 goals in total (1.50 for Iceland, 1.12 for Bulgaria): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Iceland keep a clean sheet in 33% of scenarios, Bulgaria in 22%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Iceland expected goals | 1.50 |
| Bulgaria expected goals | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Iceland clean sheet | 33% |
| Bulgaria clean sheet | 22% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Iceland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2026 | Argentina · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Japan · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Haiti · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Canada · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Mexico · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
Bulgaria
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Moldova · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Montenegro · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Indonesia · FIFA Series | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Solomon Islands · FIFA Series | 10-2 | W |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Georgia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iceland | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bulgaria | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Iceland and Bulgaria: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Iceland
No absences reported.
Bulgaria
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Iceland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- H. Magnusson3/5
- K. Hlynsson3/5
- L. Tomasson3/5
- M. E. Ellertsson3/5
- A. F. Baldursson2/5
- B. Willumsson2/5
- D. L. Gretarsson2/5
- D. Thorhallsson2/5
- E. Olafsson2/5
- G. Sigurdsson2/5
- H. Haraldsson2/5
Bulgaria
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Z. Dimitrov4/5
- A. Kraev3/5
- D. Velkovski3/5
- F. Krastev3/5
- M. Petkov3/5
- T. Ivanov3/5
- D. Mitov2/5
- D. Naumov2/5
- E. Tsenov2/5
- G. Rusev2/5
- H. Petrov2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Belgium – TürkiyeOct 2, 2026
- Faroe Islands – SlovakiaOct 2, 2026
- Finland – AlbaniaOct 3, 2026
- Croatia – EnglandOct 3, 2026
- Estonia – LuxembourgOct 3, 2026
- Belarus – San MarinoOct 3, 2026
- Spain – CzechiaOct 3, 2026
- Switzerland – SloveniaOct 3, 2026
- North Macedonia – ScotlandOct 3, 2026
- Azerbaijan – LithuaniaOct 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Iceland vs Bulgaria prediction?
Our AI gives Iceland a 46% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Bulgaria 28%. Iceland are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Iceland vs Bulgaria?
1-1 (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (8.2%) and 0-1 (8.2%).
Will both teams score in Iceland vs Bulgaria?
The probability that both Iceland and Bulgaria score is 52%. Iceland have a 33% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bulgaria 22%.
How many goals should we expect in Iceland vs Bulgaria?
The model expects 2.62 goals (1.50 for Iceland, 1.12 for Bulgaria). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Iceland vs Bulgaria played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Iceland and Bulgaria in?
Iceland: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 11 conceded). Bulgaria: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 6 conceded).
How is the Iceland vs Bulgaria prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.50 for Iceland, 1.12 for Bulgaria) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Iceland predictions
- All Bulgaria predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology