UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Iceland vs Bulgaria: 3-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Iceland 3-0 Bulgaria. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Iceland was the model's favourite outcome (80%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (11.5%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (63%): correct.
Match analysis
Iceland vs Bulgaria was played on Saturday, October 3, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Ice Rink Laugardalur, Reykjavik. Before kick-off, our model gave Iceland a 80% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Bulgaria 7%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (13.2%), ahead of 3-0 (11.5%) and 1-0 (10.1%).
Iceland have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 6. Bulgaria have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Iceland score 1.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Bulgaria score 0.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Iceland sit 1st with 4 points from 2 games, Bulgaria 4th with 1 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Iceland and Bulgaria: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Iceland or draw" stands at 93%, "Bulgaria or draw" at 20% and "no draw" at 87%.
In short : Iceland are favourites for this Iceland v Bulgaria, with a 80% win probability from our model. On recent form, Iceland have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Bulgaria have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Iceland – Bulgaria. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Iceland 2-0 Bulgaria | 13.2% |
| Iceland 3-0 Bulgaria | 11.5% |
| Iceland 1-0 Bulgaria | 10.1% |
| Iceland 2-1 Bulgaria | 8.4% |
| Iceland 4-0 Bulgaria | 7.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.26 goals in total (2.62 for Iceland, 0.64 for Bulgaria): over 2.5 goals has a 63% probability and both teams to score 44%. Everything points to an open game. Iceland keep a clean sheet in 53% of scenarios, Bulgaria in 7%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Iceland expected goals | 2.62 |
| Bulgaria expected goals | 0.64 |
| Both teams to score | 44% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% |
| Iceland clean sheet | 53% |
| Bulgaria clean sheet | 7% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Iceland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Luxembourg · UEFA Nations League | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Estonia · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Argentina · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Japan · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Haiti · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Bulgaria
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Estonia · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Luxembourg · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Moldova · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Montenegro · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Indonesia · FIFA Series | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iceland | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| Bulgaria | 4 | 1 | 2 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Iceland and Bulgaria: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Iceland
No absences reported.
Bulgaria
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Iceland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- H. Haraldsson3/5
- L. Tomasson3/5
- A. F. Baldursson2/5
- A. Guðjohnsen2/5
- D. Grétarsson2/5
- D. L. Gretarsson2/5
- D. Thorhallsson2/5
- H. Magnusson2/5
- H. R. Valdimarsson2/5
- H. Valdimarsson2/5
- Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson2/5
Bulgaria
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Velkovski5/5
- L. Petkov4/5
- Z. Dimitrov4/5
- D. Naumov3/5
- I. Turitsov3/5
- K. Dimitrov3/5
- M. Petkov3/5
- T. Ivanov3/5
- A. Kraev2/5
- B. Tsonev2/5
- E. Tsenov2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Belgium 3-0 TürkiyeOct 2, 2026
- Faroe Islands 1-1 SlovakiaOct 2, 2026
- Finland 2-1 AlbaniaOct 3, 2026
- Croatia 0-7 EnglandOct 3, 2026
- Estonia 1-0 LuxembourgOct 3, 2026
- Belarus 4-0 San MarinoOct 3, 2026
- Spain 3-1 CzechiaOct 3, 2026
- Switzerland 2-1 SloveniaOct 3, 2026
- North Macedonia 0-2 ScotlandOct 3, 2026
- Azerbaijan 1-0 LithuaniaOct 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Iceland vs Bulgaria prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Iceland a 80% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Bulgaria 7%. Iceland are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Iceland vs Bulgaria?
2-0 (13.2%), followed by 3-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (8.4%) and 4-0 (7.5%).
Will both teams score in Iceland vs Bulgaria?
The probability that both Iceland and Bulgaria score is 44%. Iceland have a 53% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bulgaria 7%.
How many goals should we expect in Iceland vs Bulgaria?
The model expects 3.26 goals (2.62 for Iceland, 0.64 for Bulgaria). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 84%, over 2.5 goals 63%, over 3.5 goals 41%.
When and where is Iceland vs Bulgaria played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Ice Rink Laugardalur, Reykjavik.
What form are Iceland and Bulgaria in?
Iceland: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 6 conceded). Bulgaria: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 5 conceded).
What was the Iceland vs Bulgaria result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Iceland 3-0 Bulgaria. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Iceland was the model's favourite outcome (80%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (11.5%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (63%): correct.
How is the Iceland vs Bulgaria prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.62 for Iceland, 0.64 for Bulgaria) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Iceland predictions
- All Bulgaria predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology