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UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)

Belarus vs San Marino: 4-0 result and AI prediction review

BelarusBelarus4 – 0San MarinoSan Marino

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Belarus 4-0 San Marino. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Belarus was the model's favourite outcome (56%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): correct.

Match analysis

Belarus vs San Marino was played on Saturday, October 3, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Illovszky Rudolf Stadion, Budapest. Before kick-off, our model gave Belarus a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and San Marino 20%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.8%), ahead of 1-1 (11.2%) and 2-0 (10.3%).

Over their last 5 matches, Belarus have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 6. San Marino have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 14. Recent momentum is clearly with Belarus. On average Belarus score 1.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; San Marino score 0.40 and concede 2.80. In the table, Belarus sit 3rd with 1 points from 2 games, San Marino 4th with 0 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Belarus, 0 for San Marino and 0 draws. The most recent ended San Marino 0-2 Belarus (Nov 18, 2018). In double chance terms, "Belarus or draw" stands at 80%, "San Marino or draw" at 44% and "no draw" at 76%.

In short : Belarus are tipped by our AI model in this Belarus v San Marino (56%). In the table, Belarus (3rd, 1 pts) host San Marino (4th, 0 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

56%
Belarus (Win)
24%
Draw
20%
San Marino (Win)

Double chance

80%
Belarus or draw
44%
San Marino or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Belarus – San Marino. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Belarus 1-0 San Marino11.8%
Belarus 1-1 San Marino11.2%
Belarus 2-0 San Marino10.3%
Belarus 2-1 San Marino9.8%
Belarus 0-0 San Marino6.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.70 goals in total (1.75 for Belarus, 0.95 for San Marino): over 2.5 goals has a 51% probability and both teams to score 51%. Belarus keep a clean sheet in 39% of scenarios, San Marino in 17%.

Probability
Belarus expected goals1.75
San Marino expected goals0.95
Both teams to score51%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Belarus clean sheet39%
San Marino clean sheet17%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Belarus

DateOpponentScore
Sep 29, 2026Finland · UEFA Nations League0-0D
Sep 26, 2026Albania · UEFA Nations League0-2L
Jun 9, 2026Burkina Faso · International Friendlies2-2D
Jun 5, 2026Syria · International Friendlies4-1W
Mar 29, 2026Armenia · International Friendlies2-1W

San Marino

DateOpponentScore
Sep 29, 2026Albania · UEFA Nations League0-3L
Sep 26, 2026Finland · UEFA Nations League0-7L
Jun 9, 2026Azerbaijan · International Friendlies1-2L
Jun 5, 2026Bangladesh · International Friendlies1-2L
Mar 31, 2026Andorra · International Friendlies0-0D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Belarus312
San Marino402

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Nov 18, 2018San Marino 0-2 BelarusUEFA Nations League
Sep 8, 2018Belarus 5-0 San MarinoUEFA Nations League

Out and doubtful

Belarus

No absences reported.

San Marino

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Belarus

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • M. Ebong5/5
  • Z. Volkov5/5
  • K. Pechenin4/5
  • A. Selyava3/5
  • A. Shumansky3/5
  • F. Lapoukhov3/5
  • V. Gromyko3/5
  • V. Kalinin3/5
  • A. Kontsevoy2/5
  • E. Yablonskiy2/5
  • G. Barkovskiy2/5

San Marino

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • E. Colombo5/5
  • L. Capicchioni5/5
  • M. Cevoli5/5
  • N. Nanni5/5
  • A. Tosi4/5
  • M. Pasolini4/5
  • N. Giacopetti4/5
  • G. Benvenuti3/5
  • L. Lazzari3/5
  • S. Zannoni3/5
  • A. Golinucci2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Belarus vs San Marino prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Belarus a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and San Marino 20%. Belarus are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Belarus vs San Marino?

1-0 (11.8%), followed by 1-1 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.7%).

Will both teams score in Belarus vs San Marino?

The probability that both Belarus and San Marino score is 51%. Belarus have a 39% chance of keeping a clean sheet, San Marino 17%.

How many goals should we expect in Belarus vs San Marino?

The model expects 2.70 goals (1.75 for Belarus, 0.95 for San Marino). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.

When and where is Belarus vs San Marino played?

Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Illovszky Rudolf Stadion, Budapest.

What form are Belarus and San Marino in?

Belarus: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded). San Marino: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 14 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Belarus and San Marino?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Belarus, 0 for San Marino and 0 draws. The most recent ended San Marino 0-2 Belarus (Nov 18, 2018).

What was the Belarus vs San Marino result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Belarus 4-0 San Marino. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Belarus was the model's favourite outcome (56%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): correct.

How is the Belarus vs San Marino prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.75 for Belarus, 0.95 for San Marino) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained