UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Belarus vs San Marino prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Belarus take on San Marino on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. The edge goes to Belarus (58%), ahead of the draw (23%) and a San Marino win (19%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.7%), ahead of 1-1 (10.9%) and 2-0 (10.6%).
Belarus are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 4. San Marino have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 13. Recent momentum is clearly with Belarus. On average Belarus score 1.80 and concede 0.80 goals per game; San Marino score 0.80 and concede 2.60.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Belarus and San Marino: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Belarus or draw" stands at 81%, "San Marino or draw" at 42% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Belarus are tipped by our AI model in this Belarus v San Marino (58%). On recent form, Belarus have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5 while San Marino are struggling (4 losses in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Belarus – San Marino. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Belarus 1-0 San Marino | 11.7% |
| Belarus 1-1 San Marino | 10.9% |
| Belarus 2-0 San Marino | 10.6% |
| Belarus 2-1 San Marino | 9.8% |
| Belarus 0-0 San Marino | 6.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.73 goals in total (1.80 for Belarus, 0.93 for San Marino): over 2.5 goals has a 51% probability and both teams to score 51%. Belarus keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, San Marino in 17%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Belarus expected goals | 1.80 |
| San Marino expected goals | 0.93 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Belarus clean sheet | 40% |
| San Marino clean sheet | 17% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Belarus
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Burkina Faso · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Syria · International Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Armenia · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Cyprus · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Greece · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-0 | D |
San Marino
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Azerbaijan · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bangladesh · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Andorra · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Faroe Islands · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Romania · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-7 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belarus | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| San Marino | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Belarus and San Marino: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Belarus
No absences reported.
San Marino
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Belarus
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Ebong5/5
- A. Shumansky4/5
- E. Yablonskiy4/5
- V. Gromyko4/5
- Z. Volkov4/5
- F. Lapoukhov3/5
- K. Pechenin3/5
- P. Pavlyuchenko2/5
- P. Zabelin2/5
- R. Begunov2/5
- R. Lisakovich2/5
San Marino
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Colombo5/5
- N. Giacopetti5/5
- A. Tosi4/5
- L. Capicchioni4/5
- M. Cevoli4/5
- N. Nanni4/5
- A. Golinucci3/5
- F. Fabbri3/5
- L. Lazzari3/5
- M. Pasolini3/5
- S. Pancotti3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Faroe Islands – SlovakiaOct 2, 2026
- Finland – AlbaniaOct 3, 2026
- Croatia – EnglandOct 3, 2026
- Estonia – LuxembourgOct 3, 2026
- Iceland – BulgariaOct 3, 2026
- Spain – CzechiaOct 3, 2026
- Switzerland – SloveniaOct 3, 2026
- North Macedonia – ScotlandOct 3, 2026
- Azerbaijan – LithuaniaOct 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Belarus vs San Marino prediction?
Our AI gives Belarus a 58% chance of winning, the draw 23% and San Marino 19%. Belarus are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Belarus vs San Marino?
1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.5%).
Will both teams score in Belarus vs San Marino?
The probability that both Belarus and San Marino score is 51%. Belarus have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, San Marino 17%.
How many goals should we expect in Belarus vs San Marino?
The model expects 2.73 goals (1.80 for Belarus, 0.93 for San Marino). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is Belarus vs San Marino played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Belarus and San Marino in?
Belarus: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 4 conceded). San Marino: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 13 conceded).
How is the Belarus vs San Marino prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.80 for Belarus, 0.93 for San Marino) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Belarus predictions
- All San Marino predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology