UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Croatia vs England prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Croatia vs England match is scheduled on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time). It is a tight call: 30% for Croatia, 26% for the draw and 44% for England. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.5%), followed by 0-1 (11.2%) and 1-2 (8.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Croatia have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, England have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 14 and conceding 10. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Croatia score 1.60 and concede 1.60 goals per game; England score 2.80 and concede 2.00. Over their recent games, Croatia have averaged 1.03 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.55 for England.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Croatia, 2 for England and 1 draw. The most recent ended England 1-0 Croatia (Jun 13, 2021). In double chance terms, "Croatia or draw" stands at 56%, "England or draw" at 70% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : England are tipped by our AI model in this Croatia v England (44%). On recent form, Croatia have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while England are in good shape (4 wins in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Croatia – England. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Croatia 1-1 England | 12.5% |
| Croatia 0-1 England | 11.2% |
| Croatia 1-2 England | 8.9% |
| Croatia 1-0 England | 8.8% |
| Croatia 0-2 England | 8.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.12 expected goals for Croatia and 1.42 for England, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 47% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Croatia keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, England in 33%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Croatia expected goals | 1.12 |
| England expected goals | 1.42 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% |
| Croatia clean sheet | 24% |
| England clean sheet | 33% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Croatia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 3, 2026 | Portugal · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Ghana · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Panama · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 17, 2026 | England · FIFA World Cup | 2-4 | L |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Slovenia · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
England
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 6-4 | W |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Argentina · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Norway · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Mexico · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 1, 2026 | DR Congo · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| England | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2021 | England 1-0 Croatia | Euro Championship |
| Nov 18, 2018 | England 2-1 Croatia | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 12, 2018 | Croatia 0-0 England | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 11, 2018 | Croatia 2-1 England | FIFA World Cup |
Out and doubtful
Croatia
No absences reported.
England
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Croatia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Livakovic5/5
- I. Perisic5/5
- J. Stanisic5/5
- L. Modric5/5
- J. Sutalo4/5
- M. Baturina4/5
- M. Kovacic4/5
- M. Pongracic4/5
- A. Budimir3/5
- J. Gvardiol3/5
- M. Pasalic3/5
England
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Rice4/5
- E. Anderson4/5
- H. Kane4/5
- J. Bellingham4/5
- J. Pickford4/5
- M. Guehi4/5
- A. Gordon3/5
- E. Konsa3/5
- N. O'Reilly3/5
- D. Spence2/5
- J. Stones2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Spain – CzechiaOct 3, 2026
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- North Macedonia – ScotlandOct 3, 2026
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Croatia vs England prediction?
Our AI gives Croatia a 30% chance of winning, the draw 26% and England 44%. England are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Croatia vs England?
1-1 (12.5%), followed by 0-1 (11.2%), 1-2 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.8%) and 0-2 (8.0%).
Will both teams score in Croatia vs England?
The probability that both Croatia and England score is 51%. Croatia have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, England 33%.
How many goals should we expect in Croatia vs England?
The model expects 2.54 goals (1.12 for Croatia, 1.42 for England). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 47%, over 3.5 goals 25%.
When and where is Croatia vs England played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Croatia and England in?
Croatia: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded). England: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Croatia and England?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Croatia, 2 for England and 1 draw. The most recent ended England 1-0 Croatia (Jun 13, 2021).
How is the Croatia vs England prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.12 for Croatia, 1.42 for England) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Croatia predictions
- All England predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology