UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Croatia vs England: 0-7 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Croatia 0-7 England. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Croatia (38%), while victory for England was rated at only 35%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): missed.
Match analysis
Croatia and England met on Saturday, October 3, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Stadion Rujevica, Rijeka. Before kick-off, our model gave Croatia a 38% chance of winning, the draw 27% and England 35%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.8%), followed by 1-0 (10.4%) and 0-1 (10.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Croatia have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, England have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 13 and conceding 10. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Croatia score 1.40 and concede 1.60 goals per game; England score 2.60 and concede 2.00. In the table, Croatia sit 3rd with 3 points from 2 games, England 2nd with 3 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Croatia have averaged 1.14 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.38 for England.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Croatia, 3 for England and 1 draw. The most recent ended England 4-2 Croatia (Jun 17, 2026). In double chance terms, "Croatia or draw" stands at 65%, "England or draw" at 62% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Croatia host England in a tight contest where a draw stays on the table (27%). In the table, Croatia (3rd, 3 pts) host England (2nd, 3 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Croatia – England. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Croatia 1-1 England | 12.8% |
| Croatia 1-0 England | 10.4% |
| Croatia 0-1 England | 10.0% |
| Croatia 2-1 England | 8.2% |
| Croatia 0-0 England | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.28 expected goals for Croatia and 1.23 for England, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 46% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Croatia keep a clean sheet in 29% of scenarios, England in 28%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Croatia expected goals | 1.28 |
| England expected goals | 1.23 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% |
| Croatia clean sheet | 29% |
| England clean sheet | 28% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Croatia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Spain · UEFA Nations League | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Czechia · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Portugal · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Ghana · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Panama · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
England
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Czechia · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Spain · UEFA Nations League | 2-3 | L |
| Jul 18, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 6-4 | W |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Argentina · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Norway · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| England | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | England 4-2 Croatia | FIFA World Cup |
| Jun 13, 2021 | England 1-0 Croatia | Euro Championship |
| Nov 18, 2018 | England 2-1 Croatia | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 12, 2018 | Croatia 0-0 England | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 11, 2018 | Croatia 2-1 England | FIFA World Cup |
Out and doubtful
Croatia
No absences reported.
England
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Croatia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Livakovic3/5
- I. Perisic3/5
- J. Gvardiol3/5
- J. Stanisic3/5
- J. Sutalo3/5
- L. Modric3/5
- M. Baturina3/5
- M. Kovacic3/5
- M. Pongracic3/5
- A. Budimir2/5
- D. Livaković2/5
England
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Gordon4/5
- E. Anderson4/5
- H. Kane4/5
- B. Saka3/5
- D. Rice3/5
- E. Konsa3/5
- J. Bellingham3/5
- M. Guehi3/5
- M. Rogers3/5
- D. Spence2/5
- J. Pickford2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Belgium 3-0 TürkiyeOct 2, 2026
- Faroe Islands 1-1 SlovakiaOct 2, 2026
- Finland 2-1 AlbaniaOct 3, 2026
- Estonia 1-0 LuxembourgOct 3, 2026
- Belarus 4-0 San MarinoOct 3, 2026
- Iceland 3-0 BulgariaOct 3, 2026
- Spain 3-1 CzechiaOct 3, 2026
- Switzerland 2-1 SloveniaOct 3, 2026
- North Macedonia 0-2 ScotlandOct 3, 2026
- Azerbaijan 1-0 LithuaniaOct 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Croatia vs England prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Croatia a 38% chance of winning, the draw 27% and England 35%. Croatia are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 0-7.
What is the most likely correct score for Croatia vs England?
1-1 (12.8%), followed by 1-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (8.2%) and 0-0 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Croatia vs England?
The probability that both Croatia and England score is 51%. Croatia have a 29% chance of keeping a clean sheet, England 28%.
How many goals should we expect in Croatia vs England?
The model expects 2.51 goals (1.28 for Croatia, 1.23 for England). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 46%, over 3.5 goals 25%.
When and where is Croatia vs England played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Stadion Rujevica, Rijeka.
What form are Croatia and England in?
Croatia: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 8 conceded). England: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Croatia and England?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Croatia, 3 for England and 1 draw. The most recent ended England 4-2 Croatia (Jun 17, 2026).
What was the Croatia vs England result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Croatia 0-7 England. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Croatia (38%), while victory for England was rated at only 35%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): missed.
How is the Croatia vs England prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.28 for Croatia, 1.23 for England) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Croatia predictions
- All England predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology