UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Estonia vs Luxembourg prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Estonia take on Luxembourg on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. The edge goes to Estonia (52%), ahead of the draw (25%) and a Luxembourg win (23%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.7%), ahead of 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Estonia have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Luxembourg have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 2. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Estonia score 1.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Luxembourg score 1.20 and concede 0.40.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Estonia and Luxembourg: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Estonia or draw" stands at 77%, "Luxembourg or draw" at 48% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Estonia are favourites for this Estonia v Luxembourg, with a 52% win probability from our model. On recent form, Estonia have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Luxembourg have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Estonia – Luxembourg. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Estonia 1-1 Luxembourg | 11.7% |
| Estonia 1-0 Luxembourg | 11.5% |
| Estonia 2-1 Luxembourg | 9.6% |
| Estonia 2-0 Luxembourg | 9.4% |
| Estonia 0-1 Luxembourg | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.66 goals in total (1.64 for Estonia, 1.02 for Luxembourg): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 52%. Estonia keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Luxembourg in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Estonia expected goals | 1.64 |
| Luxembourg expected goals | 1.02 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Estonia clean sheet | 36% |
| Luxembourg clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Estonia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Lithuania · Baltic Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Faroe Islands · Baltic Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Rwanda · FIFA Series | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Kenya · FIFA Series | 1-1 | D |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Cyprus · International Friendlies | 4-2 | W |
Luxembourg
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Albania · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Italy · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Malta · UEFA Nations League | 3-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Malta · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Northern Ireland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luxembourg | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Estonia and Luxembourg: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Estonia
No absences reported.
Luxembourg
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Estonia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Tougjas4/5
- K. Hussar3/5
- P. Kristal3/5
- K. Hein2/5
- K. Kait2/5
- K. Palumets2/5
- M. Kolobov2/5
- M. Kuusk2/5
- M. Mannilaan2/5
- M. Soomets2/5
- T. Tammik2/5
Luxembourg
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Martins3/5
- D. Carlson3/5
- D. Sinani3/5
- L. Jans3/5
- S. Korac3/5
- A. Dardari2/5
- A. Moris2/5
- Aiman Dardari2/5
- Anthony Moris2/5
- Danel Sinani2/5
- Dirk Carlson2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Belgium – TürkiyeOct 2, 2026
- Faroe Islands – SlovakiaOct 2, 2026
- Finland – AlbaniaOct 3, 2026
- Croatia – EnglandOct 3, 2026
- Belarus – San MarinoOct 3, 2026
- Iceland – BulgariaOct 3, 2026
- Spain – CzechiaOct 3, 2026
- Switzerland – SloveniaOct 3, 2026
- North Macedonia – ScotlandOct 3, 2026
- Azerbaijan – LithuaniaOct 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Estonia vs Luxembourg prediction?
Our AI gives Estonia a 52% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Luxembourg 23%. Estonia are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Estonia vs Luxembourg?
1-1 (11.7%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (9.4%) and 0-1 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in Estonia vs Luxembourg?
The probability that both Estonia and Luxembourg score is 52%. Estonia have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Luxembourg 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Estonia vs Luxembourg?
The model expects 2.66 goals (1.64 for Estonia, 1.02 for Luxembourg). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Estonia vs Luxembourg played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Estonia and Luxembourg in?
Estonia: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded). Luxembourg: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 2 conceded).
How is the Estonia vs Luxembourg prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.64 for Estonia, 1.02 for Luxembourg) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Estonia predictions
- All Luxembourg predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology