UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Estonia vs Luxembourg: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Estonia 1-0 Luxembourg. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Estonia was the model's favourite outcome (38%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (9.9%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.
Match analysis
Estonia vs Luxembourg was played on Saturday, October 3, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn. Before kick-off, our model gave Estonia a 38% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Luxembourg 36%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.6%), ahead of 1-0 (9.9%) and 0-1 (9.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Estonia have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 3 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Luxembourg have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Estonia score 0.60 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Luxembourg score 1.20 and concede 1.00. In the table, Estonia sit 3rd with 2 points from 2 games, Luxembourg 2nd with 3 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Estonia and Luxembourg: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Estonia or draw" stands at 64%, "Luxembourg or draw" at 62% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Estonia and Luxembourg meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 26%). On recent form, Estonia have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Luxembourg have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Estonia – Luxembourg. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Estonia 1-1 Luxembourg | 12.6% |
| Estonia 1-0 Luxembourg | 9.9% |
| Estonia 0-1 Luxembourg | 9.6% |
| Estonia 2-1 Luxembourg | 8.3% |
| Estonia 1-2 Luxembourg | 8.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.58 goals in total (1.31 for Estonia, 1.27 for Luxembourg): over 2.5 goals has a 48% probability and both teams to score 53%. Estonia keep a clean sheet in 28% of scenarios, Luxembourg in 27%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Estonia expected goals | 1.31 |
| Luxembourg expected goals | 1.27 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| Estonia clean sheet | 28% |
| Luxembourg clean sheet | 27% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Estonia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Bulgaria · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Iceland · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Lithuania · Baltic Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Faroe Islands · Baltic Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Rwanda · FIFA Series | 0-2 | L |
Luxembourg
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Iceland · UEFA Nations League | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bulgaria · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Albania · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Italy · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Malta · UEFA Nations League | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Luxembourg | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Estonia and Luxembourg: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Estonia
No absences reported.
Luxembourg
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Estonia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- K. Hein4/5
- E. Tougjas3/5
- M. Kuusk3/5
- M. Soomets3/5
- P. Kristal3/5
- K. Hussar2/5
- K. Mets2/5
- K. Palumets2/5
- Karel Mustmaa2/5
- M. Käit2/5
- M. Kolobov2/5
Luxembourg
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Carlson4/5
- L. Jans4/5
- V. Thill4/5
- A. Moris3/5
- Aiman Dardari3/5
- D. Sinani3/5
- F. Bohnert3/5
- C. Martins2/5
- E. Mahmutović2/5
- H. Kadamani2/5
- J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Belgium 3-0 TürkiyeOct 2, 2026
- Faroe Islands 1-1 SlovakiaOct 2, 2026
- Finland 2-1 AlbaniaOct 3, 2026
- Croatia 0-7 EnglandOct 3, 2026
- Belarus 4-0 San MarinoOct 3, 2026
- Iceland 3-0 BulgariaOct 3, 2026
- Spain 3-1 CzechiaOct 3, 2026
- Switzerland 2-1 SloveniaOct 3, 2026
- North Macedonia 0-2 ScotlandOct 3, 2026
- Azerbaijan 1-0 LithuaniaOct 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Estonia vs Luxembourg prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Estonia a 38% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Luxembourg 36%. Estonia are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Estonia vs Luxembourg?
1-1 (12.6%), followed by 1-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.6%), 2-1 (8.3%) and 1-2 (8.0%).
Will both teams score in Estonia vs Luxembourg?
The probability that both Estonia and Luxembourg score is 53%. Estonia have a 28% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Luxembourg 27%.
How many goals should we expect in Estonia vs Luxembourg?
The model expects 2.58 goals (1.31 for Estonia, 1.27 for Luxembourg). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is Estonia vs Luxembourg played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn.
What form are Estonia and Luxembourg in?
Estonia: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 3 conceded). Luxembourg: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 5 conceded).
What was the Estonia vs Luxembourg result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Estonia 1-0 Luxembourg. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Estonia was the model's favourite outcome (38%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (9.9%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.
How is the Estonia vs Luxembourg prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.31 for Estonia, 1.27 for Luxembourg) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Estonia predictions
- All Luxembourg predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology