UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: Azerbaijan vs Lithuania kicks off on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time). Nothing is settled in advance: the AI gives Azerbaijan 35%, Lithuania 39% and the draw 26%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.6%), ahead of 0-1 (10.1%) and 1-0 (9.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Azerbaijan have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Lithuania have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Azerbaijan score 2.00 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Lithuania score 1.00 and concede 0.80.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Azerbaijan and Lithuania: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Azerbaijan or draw" stands at 61%, "Lithuania or draw" at 65% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Azerbaijan host Lithuania in a tight contest where a draw stays on the table (26%). On recent form, Azerbaijan have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Lithuania have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Azerbaijan – Lithuania. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Azerbaijan 1-1 Lithuania | 12.6% |
| Azerbaijan 0-1 Lithuania | 10.1% |
| Azerbaijan 1-0 Lithuania | 9.4% |
| Azerbaijan 1-2 Lithuania | 8.4% |
| Azerbaijan 2-1 Lithuania | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.59 goals in total (1.25 for Azerbaijan, 1.34 for Lithuania): over 2.5 goals has a 48% probability and both teams to score 53%. Azerbaijan keep a clean sheet in 26% of scenarios, Lithuania in 29%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Azerbaijan expected goals | 1.25 |
| Lithuania expected goals | 1.34 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| Azerbaijan clean sheet | 26% |
| Lithuania clean sheet | 29% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Azerbaijan
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | San Marino · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Malta · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Sierra Leone · FIFA Series | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | St. Lucia · FIFA Series | 6-1 | W |
| Nov 16, 2025 | France · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-3 | L |
Lithuania
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Liechtenstein · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Estonia · Baltic Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Latvia · Baltic Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Georgia · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Moldova · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Azerbaijan | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Lithuania | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Azerbaijan and Lithuania: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Azerbaijan
No absences reported.
Lithuania
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Azerbaijan
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Badalov4/5
- E. Mahmudov4/5
- Q. Aliyev4/5
- R. Dadashov4/5
- A. Krivotsyuk3/5
- B. Huseynov3/5
- E. Cafarquliyev3/5
- E. Safarov3/5
- R. Dashdamirov3/5
- A. Isayev2/5
- K. Aliyev2/5
Lithuania
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Utkus5/5
- G. Gineitis5/5
- J. Lasickas5/5
- M. Vorobjovas5/5
- A. Kucys4/5
- V. Armalas4/5
- D. Sluta2/5
- E. Gertmonas2/5
- E. Jankauskas2/5
- E. Kloniunas2/5
- G. Sirgedas2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- North Macedonia – ScotlandOct 3, 2026
- Malta – AndorraOct 4, 2026
- Kosovo – AustriaOct 4, 2026
- Portugal – NorwayOct 4, 2026
- Wales – DenmarkOct 4, 2026
- Greece – GermanyOct 4, 2026
- Ireland – IsraelOct 4, 2026
- Netherlands – SerbiaOct 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Azerbaijan vs Lithuania prediction?
Our AI gives Azerbaijan a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lithuania 39%. Lithuania are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
1-1 (12.6%), followed by 0-1 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.4%), 1-2 (8.4%) and 2-1 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
The probability that both Azerbaijan and Lithuania score is 53%. Azerbaijan have a 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lithuania 29%.
How many goals should we expect in Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
The model expects 2.59 goals (1.25 for Azerbaijan, 1.34 for Lithuania). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is Azerbaijan vs Lithuania played?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Azerbaijan and Lithuania in?
Azerbaijan: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 8 conceded). Lithuania: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 4 conceded).
How is the Azerbaijan vs Lithuania prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.25 for Azerbaijan, 1.34 for Lithuania) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Azerbaijan predictions
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