UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Azerbaijan 1-0 Lithuania. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lithuania (44%), while victory for Azerbaijan was rated at only 30%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (8.5%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.
Match analysis
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania was played on Sunday, October 4, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Bakcell Arena, Baku. Before kick-off, our model gave Azerbaijan a 30% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lithuania 44%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.4%), ahead of 0-1 (10.8%) and 1-2 (9.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Azerbaijan have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Lithuania have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 3. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Azerbaijan score 0.80 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Lithuania score 1.40 and concede 0.60. In the table, Azerbaijan sit 2nd with 2 points from 2 games, Lithuania 1st with 4 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Azerbaijan, 0 for Lithuania and 1 draw. The most recent ended Azerbaijan 0-0 Lithuania (Mar 25, 2019). In double chance terms, "Azerbaijan or draw" stands at 56%, "Lithuania or draw" at 70% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Lithuania are tipped by our AI model in this Azerbaijan v Lithuania (44%). In the table, Azerbaijan (2nd, 2 pts) host Lithuania (1st, 4 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Azerbaijan – Lithuania. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Azerbaijan 1-1 Lithuania | 12.4% |
| Azerbaijan 0-1 Lithuania | 10.8% |
| Azerbaijan 1-2 Lithuania | 9.0% |
| Azerbaijan 1-0 Lithuania | 8.5% |
| Azerbaijan 0-2 Lithuania | 7.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.60 goals in total (1.15 for Azerbaijan, 1.45 for Lithuania): over 2.5 goals has a 48% probability and both teams to score 52%. Azerbaijan keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Lithuania in 32%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Azerbaijan expected goals | 1.15 |
| Lithuania expected goals | 1.45 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| Azerbaijan clean sheet | 24% |
| Lithuania clean sheet | 32% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Azerbaijan
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Liechtenstein · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Lithuania · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Tajikistan · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 9, 2026 | San Marino · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Malta · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
Lithuania
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Andorra · International Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Azerbaijan · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Liechtenstein · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Estonia · Baltic Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Latvia · Baltic Cup | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Azerbaijan | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Lithuania | 1 | 4 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2019 | Azerbaijan 0-0 Lithuania | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Azerbaijan
No absences reported.
Lithuania
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Azerbaijan
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Balayev4/5
- E. Mahmudov3/5
- M. Emreli3/5
- T. Bayramov3/5
- A. Isayev2/5
- A. Krivotsyuk2/5
- A. Xaybulayev2/5
- E. Badalov2/5
- R. Abbasov2/5
- R. Dadashov2/5
- R. Dashdamirov2/5
Lithuania
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Utkus4/5
- G. Gineitis4/5
- J. Lasickas4/5
- M. Vorobjovas4/5
- D. Sluta3/5
- E. Jankauskas3/5
- T. Svedkauskas3/5
- V. Armalas3/5
- A. Kucys2/5
- A. Kučys2/5
- A. Tutyškinas2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Spain 3-1 CzechiaOct 3, 2026
- Switzerland 2-1 SloveniaOct 3, 2026
- North Macedonia 0-2 ScotlandOct 3, 2026
- Malta 1-0 AndorraOct 4, 2026
- Kosovo 1-1 AustriaOct 4, 2026
- Portugal 2-1 NorwayOct 4, 2026
- Wales 0-1 DenmarkOct 4, 2026
- Greece 0-0 GermanyOct 4, 2026
- Ireland 1-1 IsraelOct 4, 2026
- Netherlands 2-1 SerbiaOct 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Azerbaijan vs Lithuania prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Azerbaijan a 30% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lithuania 44%. Lithuania are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
1-1 (12.4%), followed by 0-1 (10.8%), 1-2 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.5%) and 0-2 (7.8%).
Will both teams score in Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
The probability that both Azerbaijan and Lithuania score is 52%. Azerbaijan have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lithuania 32%.
How many goals should we expect in Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
The model expects 2.60 goals (1.15 for Azerbaijan, 1.45 for Lithuania). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is Azerbaijan vs Lithuania played?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Bakcell Arena, Baku.
What form are Azerbaijan and Lithuania in?
Azerbaijan: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 4 conceded). Lithuania: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Azerbaijan and Lithuania?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Azerbaijan, 0 for Lithuania and 1 draw. The most recent ended Azerbaijan 0-0 Lithuania (Mar 25, 2019).
What was the Azerbaijan vs Lithuania result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Azerbaijan 1-0 Lithuania. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lithuania (44%), while victory for Azerbaijan was rated at only 30%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (8.5%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.
How is the Azerbaijan vs Lithuania prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.15 for Azerbaijan, 1.45 for Lithuania) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Azerbaijan predictions
- All Lithuania predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology