UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Spain vs Czechia: 3-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Spain 3-1 Czechia. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Spain was the model's favourite outcome (95%). The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (4.7%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (28%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (81%): correct.
Match analysis
Spain vs Czechia was played on Saturday, October 3, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo. Before kick-off, our model gave Spain a 95% chance of winning, the draw 4% and Czechia 1%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (13.9%), ahead of 4-0 (13.9%) and 5-0 (11.1%).
Spain are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 12 and conceding 4. Czechia have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 10. Recent momentum is clearly with Spain. On average Spain score 2.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Czechia score 0.60 and concede 2.00. In the table, Spain sit 1st with 6 points from 2 games, Czechia 4th with 0 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Spain have averaged 1.88 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.77 for Czechia.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Spain, 0 for Czechia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Spain 2-0 Czechia (Jun 12, 2022). In double chance terms, "Spain or draw" stands at 99%, "Czechia or draw" at 5% and "no draw" at 96%.
In short : Spain are tipped by our AI model in this Spain v Czechia (95%). On recent form, Spain are in good shape (5 wins in 5) while Czechia are struggling (4 losses in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 3-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Spain – Czechia. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 57% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spain 3-0 Czechia | 13.9% |
| Spain 4-0 Czechia | 13.9% |
| Spain 5-0 Czechia | 11.1% |
| Spain 2-0 Czechia | 10.4% |
| Spain 6-0 Czechia | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.34 goals in total (4.00 for Spain, 0.34 for Czechia): over 2.5 goals has a 81% probability and both teams to score 28%. Everything points to an open game. Spain keep a clean sheet in 71% of scenarios, Czechia in 2%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Spain expected goals | 4.00 |
| Czechia expected goals | 0.34 |
| Both teams to score | 28% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 63% |
| Spain clean sheet | 71% |
| Czechia clean sheet | 2% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Spain
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Croatia · UEFA Nations League | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 26, 2026 | England · UEFA Nations League | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Argentina · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 14, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Belgium · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
Czechia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | England · UEFA Nations League | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Croatia · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Mexico · FIFA World Cup | 0-3 | L |
| Jun 18, 2026 | South Africa · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 12, 2026 | South Korea · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 1 | 6 | 2 |
| Czechia | 4 | 0 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2022 | Spain 2-0 Czechia | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 5, 2022 | Czechia 2-2 Spain | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 13, 2016 | Spain 1-0 Czechia | Euro Championship |
Out and doubtful
Spain
No absences reported.
Czechia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Spain
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Lamine Yamal5/5
- Rodri4/5
- A. Baena3/5
- A. Laporte3/5
- D. Olmo3/5
- F. Ruiz3/5
- M. Cucurella3/5
- M. Oyarzabal3/5
- P. Cubarsi3/5
- P. Porro3/5
- U. Simon3/5
Czechia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- V. Coufal4/5
- L. Krejci3/5
- M. Kovar3/5
- R. Hranac3/5
- A. Hlozek2/5
- A. Hložek2/5
- A. Karabec2/5
- A. Sojka2/5
- J. Sláma2/5
- L. Cerv2/5
- L. Červ2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Finland 2-1 AlbaniaOct 3, 2026
- Croatia 0-7 EnglandOct 3, 2026
- Estonia 1-0 LuxembourgOct 3, 2026
- Belarus 4-0 San MarinoOct 3, 2026
- Iceland 3-0 BulgariaOct 3, 2026
- Switzerland 2-1 SloveniaOct 3, 2026
- North Macedonia 0-2 ScotlandOct 3, 2026
- Azerbaijan 1-0 LithuaniaOct 4, 2026
- Malta 1-0 AndorraOct 4, 2026
- Kosovo 1-1 AustriaOct 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Spain vs Czechia prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Spain a 95% chance of winning, the draw 4% and Czechia 1%. Spain are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Spain vs Czechia?
3-0 (13.9%), followed by 4-0 (13.9%), 5-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.4%) and 6-0 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Spain vs Czechia?
The probability that both Spain and Czechia score is 28%. Spain have a 71% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Czechia 2%.
How many goals should we expect in Spain vs Czechia?
The model expects 4.34 goals (4.00 for Spain, 0.34 for Czechia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 93%, over 2.5 goals 81%, over 3.5 goals 63%.
When and where is Spain vs Czechia played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo.
What form are Spain and Czechia in?
Spain: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 4 conceded). Czechia: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Spain and Czechia?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Spain, 0 for Czechia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Spain 2-0 Czechia (Jun 12, 2022).
What was the Spain vs Czechia result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Spain 3-1 Czechia. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Spain was the model's favourite outcome (95%). The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (4.7%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (28%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (81%): correct.
How is the Spain vs Czechia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for Spain, 0.34 for Czechia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Spain predictions
- All Czechia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology