UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Portugal vs Norway prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Portugal vs Norway match is scheduled on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). The edge goes to Portugal (51%), ahead of the draw (23%) and a Norway win (26%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (10.8%), ahead of 2-1 (9.7%) and 1-0 (9.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Portugal have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, Norway have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 10. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Portugal score 1.60 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Norway score 1.80 and concede 2.00. In the table, Portugal sit 2nd with 3 points from 1 games, Norway 1st with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Portugal have averaged 1.59 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.36 for Norway.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Portugal and Norway: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Portugal or draw" stands at 74%, "Norway or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Portugal are favourites for this Portugal v Norway, with a 51% win probability from our model. In the table, Portugal (2nd, 3 pts) host Norway (1st, 3 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Portugal – Norway. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Portugal 1-1 Norway | 10.8% |
| Portugal 2-1 Norway | 9.7% |
| Portugal 1-0 Norway | 9.0% |
| Portugal 2-0 Norway | 8.1% |
| Portugal 1-2 Norway | 6.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.00 goals in total (1.80 for Portugal, 1.20 for Norway): over 2.5 goals has a 58% probability and both teams to score 58%. Portugal keep a clean sheet in 30% of scenarios, Norway in 17%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Portugal expected goals | 1.80 |
| Norway expected goals | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | 58% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% |
| Portugal clean sheet | 30% |
| Norway clean sheet | 17% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Portugal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Wales · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Spain · FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Croatia · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Colombia · FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | D |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Uzbekistan · FIFA World Cup | 5-0 | W |
Norway
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Denmark · UEFA Nations League | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 11, 2026 | England · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Brazil · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Ivory Coast · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 26, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 1-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Norway | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Portugal and Norway: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Portugal
No absences reported.
Norway
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Portugal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Vitinha5/5
- B. Fernandes4/5
- C. Ronaldo4/5
- D. Costa4/5
- J. Cancelo4/5
- N. Mendes4/5
- P. Neto4/5
- R. Dias4/5
- R. Veiga4/5
- J. Neves3/5
- Joao Felix3/5
Norway
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- P. Berg5/5
- E. Haaland4/5
- K. Ajer4/5
- S. Berge4/5
- T. Heggem4/5
- A. Nusa3/5
- A. Sorloth3/5
- D. Wolfe3/5
- J. Ryerson3/5
- M. Odegaard3/5
- O. Nyland3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Netherlands – SerbiaOct 4, 2026
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Portugal vs Norway prediction?
Our AI gives Portugal a 51% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Norway 26%. Portugal are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Portugal vs Norway?
1-1 (10.8%), followed by 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%), 2-0 (8.1%) and 1-2 (6.5%).
Will both teams score in Portugal vs Norway?
The probability that both Portugal and Norway score is 58%. Portugal have a 30% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Norway 17%.
How many goals should we expect in Portugal vs Norway?
The model expects 3.00 goals (1.80 for Portugal, 1.20 for Norway). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 80%, over 2.5 goals 58%, over 3.5 goals 35%.
When and where is Portugal vs Norway played?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Portugal and Norway in?
Portugal: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 2 conceded). Norway: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 10 conceded).
How is the Portugal vs Norway prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.80 for Portugal, 1.20 for Norway) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Portugal predictions
- All Norway predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology