UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Portugal vs Norway: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Portugal 2-1 Norway. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Portugal was the model's favourite outcome (83%). The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.4%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (35%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): correct.
Match analysis
Portugal vs Norway was played on Sunday, October 4, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Estádio do Dragão, Porto. Before kick-off, our model gave Portugal a 83% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Norway 5%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (15.8%), ahead of 3-0 (13.6%) and 1-0 (12.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Portugal have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Norway have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with Portugal. On average Portugal score 1.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Norway score 1.60 and concede 1.80. In the table, Portugal sit 1st with 9 points from 3 games, Norway 3rd with 3 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Portugal have averaged 1.41 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.86 for Norway.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Portugal, 0 for Norway and 0 draws. The most recent ended Norway 1-2 Portugal (Sep 27, 2026). In double chance terms, "Portugal or draw" stands at 95%, "Norway or draw" at 17% and "no draw" at 88%.
In short : Portugal are favourites for this Portugal v Norway, with a 83% win probability from our model. In the table, Portugal (1st, 9 pts) host Norway (3rd, 3 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Portugal – Norway. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (15.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 58% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Portugal 2-0 Norway | 15.8% |
| Portugal 3-0 Norway | 13.6% |
| Portugal 1-0 Norway | 12.2% |
| Portugal 4-0 Norway | 8.7% |
| Portugal 2-1 Norway | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.05 goals in total (2.58 for Portugal, 0.47 for Norway): over 2.5 goals has a 59% probability and both teams to score 35%. Everything points to an open game. Portugal keep a clean sheet in 63% of scenarios, Norway in 8%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Portugal expected goals | 2.58 |
| Norway expected goals | 0.47 |
| Both teams to score | 35% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% |
| Portugal clean sheet | 63% |
| Norway clean sheet | 8% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Portugal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Denmark · UEFA Nations League | 4-2 | W |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Norway · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Wales · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Spain · FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Croatia · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
Norway
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Wales · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Portugal · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Denmark · UEFA Nations League | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 11, 2026 | England · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Brazil · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 1 | 9 | 3 |
| Norway | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Norway 1-2 Portugal | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
Portugal
No absences reported.
Norway
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Portugal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Vitinha4/5
- Diogo Costa3/5
- João Cancelo3/5
- Nuno Mendes3/5
- Pedro Neto3/5
- Renato Veiga3/5
- Rúben Dias3/5
- B. Fernandes2/5
- Bruno Fernandes2/5
- C. Ronaldo2/5
- D. Costa2/5
Norway
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Haaland5/5
- J. Ryerson5/5
- K. Ajer5/5
- S. Berge5/5
- T. Heggem5/5
- P. Berg4/5
- A. Nusa3/5
- A. Schjelderup3/5
- F. Aursnes3/5
- M. Ødegaard3/5
- Ø. Nyland3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Azerbaijan 1-0 LithuaniaOct 4, 2026
- Malta 1-0 AndorraOct 4, 2026
- Kosovo 1-1 AustriaOct 4, 2026
- Wales 0-1 DenmarkOct 4, 2026
- Greece 0-0 GermanyOct 4, 2026
- Ireland 1-1 IsraelOct 4, 2026
- Netherlands 2-1 SerbiaOct 4, 2026
- Cyprus 2-1 LatviaOct 5, 2026
- Italy 3-1 TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
- France 4-1 BelgiumOct 5, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Portugal vs Norway prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Portugal a 83% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Norway 5%. Portugal are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Portugal vs Norway?
2-0 (15.8%), followed by 3-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (12.2%), 4-0 (8.7%) and 2-1 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Portugal vs Norway?
The probability that both Portugal and Norway score is 35%. Portugal have a 63% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Norway 8%.
How many goals should we expect in Portugal vs Norway?
The model expects 3.05 goals (2.58 for Portugal, 0.47 for Norway). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 81%, over 2.5 goals 59%, over 3.5 goals 36%.
When and where is Portugal vs Norway played?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Estádio do Dragão, Porto.
What form are Portugal and Norway in?
Portugal: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded). Norway: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Portugal and Norway?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Portugal, 0 for Norway and 0 draws. The most recent ended Norway 1-2 Portugal (Sep 27, 2026).
What was the Portugal vs Norway result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Portugal 2-1 Norway. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Portugal was the model's favourite outcome (83%). The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.4%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (35%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): correct.
How is the Portugal vs Norway prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.58 for Portugal, 0.47 for Norway) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Portugal predictions
- All Norway predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology