UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Greece vs Germany: 0-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Greece 0-0 Germany. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Greece (72%), while a draw was rated at only 18%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.4%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (45%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): missed.
Match analysis
Greece vs Germany was played on Sunday, October 4, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki. Before kick-off, our model gave Greece a 72% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Germany 10%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (13.3%), ahead of 1-0 (12.0%) and 3-0 (9.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, Greece have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Germany have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Greece. On average Greece score 1.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Germany score 1.00 and concede 1.00. In the table, Greece sit 1st with 7 points from 3 games, Germany 3rd with 4 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Greece, 2 for Germany and 0 draws. The most recent ended Germany 2-1 Greece (Jun 7, 2024). In double chance terms, "Greece or draw" stands at 90%, "Germany or draw" at 28% and "no draw" at 82%.
In short : Our model backs Greece to edge Germany (72% probability). In the table, Greece (1st, 7 pts) host Germany (3rd, 4 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 56%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Greece – Germany. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 53% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Greece 2-0 Germany | 13.3% |
| Greece 1-0 Germany | 12.0% |
| Greece 3-0 Germany | 9.8% |
| Greece 2-1 Germany | 9.3% |
| Greece 1-1 Germany | 8.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.92 goals in total (2.22 for Greece, 0.70 for Germany): over 2.5 goals has a 56% probability and both teams to score 45%. Greece keep a clean sheet in 50% of scenarios, Germany in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Greece expected goals | 2.22 |
| Germany expected goals | 0.70 |
| Both teams to score | 45% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% |
| Greece clean sheet | 50% |
| Germany clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Greece
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Netherlands · UEFA Nations League | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Germany · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Serbia · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Italy · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Sweden · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
Germany
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Serbia · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Greece · UEFA Nations League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Netherlands · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Paraguay · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Ecuador · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greece | 1 | 7 | 3 |
| Germany | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2024 | Germany 2-1 Greece | International Friendlies |
| Jun 22, 2012 | Germany 4-2 Greece | Euro Championship |
Out and doubtful
Greece
No absences reported.
Germany
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Greece
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Tzolis5/5
- P. Retsos5/5
- K. Mavropanos4/5
- K. Tsimikas4/5
- K. Tzolakis4/5
- V. Pavlidis4/5
- C. Zafeiris3/5
- D. Kourbelis3/5
- G. Vagiannidis3/5
- K. Karetsas3/5
- A. Tetteh2/5
Germany
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Nmecha4/5
- J. Kimmich4/5
- J. Tah4/5
- F. Wirtz3/5
- K. Havertz3/5
- N. Brown3/5
- A. Pavlovic2/5
- A. Rudiger2/5
- K. Adeyemi2/5
- K. Schade2/5
- L. Sane2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Azerbaijan 1-0 LithuaniaOct 4, 2026
- Malta 1-0 AndorraOct 4, 2026
- Kosovo 1-1 AustriaOct 4, 2026
- Portugal 2-1 NorwayOct 4, 2026
- Wales 0-1 DenmarkOct 4, 2026
- Ireland 1-1 IsraelOct 4, 2026
- Netherlands 2-1 SerbiaOct 4, 2026
- Cyprus 2-1 LatviaOct 5, 2026
- Italy 3-1 TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
- France 4-1 BelgiumOct 5, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Greece vs Germany prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Greece a 72% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Germany 10%. Greece are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Greece vs Germany?
2-0 (13.3%), followed by 1-0 (12.0%), 3-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%) and 1-1 (8.4%).
Will both teams score in Greece vs Germany?
The probability that both Greece and Germany score is 45%. Greece have a 50% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Germany 11%.
How many goals should we expect in Greece vs Germany?
The model expects 2.92 goals (2.22 for Greece, 0.70 for Germany). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 34%.
When and where is Greece vs Germany played?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki.
What form are Greece and Germany in?
Greece: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded). Germany: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Greece and Germany?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Greece, 2 for Germany and 0 draws. The most recent ended Germany 2-1 Greece (Jun 7, 2024).
What was the Greece vs Germany result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Greece 0-0 Germany. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Greece (72%), while a draw was rated at only 18%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.4%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (45%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): missed.
How is the Greece vs Germany prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.22 for Greece, 0.70 for Germany) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Greece predictions
- All Germany predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology