UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Greece vs Germany prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Greece vs Germany match is scheduled on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). With a 62% win probability, Greece go in as strong favourites against Germany (19%), with the draw rated at 19%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (9.4%), ahead of 1-1 (7.9%) and 2-0 (7.5%).
Greece have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Germany have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Germany. On average Greece score 0.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Germany score 2.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, Greece sit 1st with 3 points from 1 games, Germany 2nd with 1 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Greece, 2 for Germany and 0 draws. The most recent ended Germany 2-1 Greece (Jun 7, 2024). In double chance terms, "Greece or draw" stands at 81%, "Germany or draw" at 38% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Our model backs Greece to edge Germany (62% probability). In the table, Greece (1st, 3 pts) host Germany (2nd, 1 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 70%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Greece – Germany. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 39% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Greece 2-1 Germany | 9.4% |
| Greece 1-1 Germany | 7.9% |
| Greece 2-0 Germany | 7.5% |
| Greece 3-1 Germany | 7.4% |
| Greece 1-0 Germany | 6.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.63 goals in total (2.38 for Greece, 1.25 for Germany): over 2.5 goals has a 70% probability and both teams to score 65%. Everything points to an open game. Greece keep a clean sheet in 29% of scenarios, Germany in 9%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Greece expected goals | 2.38 |
| Germany expected goals | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | 65% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% |
| Greece clean sheet | 29% |
| Germany clean sheet | 9% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Greece
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Serbia · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Italy · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Sweden · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Hungary · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Paraguay · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
Germany
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 2026 | Paraguay · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Ecuador · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Ivory Coast · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Curaçao · FIFA World Cup | 7-1 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | United States · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greece | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Germany | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2024 | Germany 2-1 Greece | International Friendlies |
| Jun 22, 2012 | Germany 4-2 Greece | Euro Championship |
Out and doubtful
Greece
No absences reported.
Germany
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Greece
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Tzolis5/5
- D. Kourbelis4/5
- P. Retsos4/5
- G. Vagiannidis3/5
- K. Koulierakis3/5
- K. Mavropanos3/5
- K. Tsimikas3/5
- K. Tzolakis3/5
- V. Pavlidis3/5
- A. Bakasetas2/5
- A. Douvikas2/5
Germany
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Pavlovic5/5
- F. Nmecha5/5
- F. Wirtz5/5
- J. Kimmich5/5
- J. Tah5/5
- K. Havertz5/5
- L. Sane5/5
- J. Musiala4/5
- M. Neuer4/5
- N. Brown4/5
- N. Schlotterbeck3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Portugal – NorwayOct 4, 2026
- Wales – DenmarkOct 4, 2026
- Ireland – IsraelOct 4, 2026
- Netherlands – SerbiaOct 4, 2026
- Cyprus – LatviaOct 5, 2026
- Italy – TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Greece vs Germany prediction?
Our AI gives Greece a 62% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Germany 19%. Greece are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Greece vs Germany?
2-1 (9.4%), followed by 1-1 (7.9%), 2-0 (7.5%), 3-1 (7.4%) and 1-0 (6.3%).
Will both teams score in Greece vs Germany?
The probability that both Greece and Germany score is 65%. Greece have a 29% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Germany 9%.
How many goals should we expect in Greece vs Germany?
The model expects 3.63 goals (2.38 for Greece, 1.25 for Germany). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 88%, over 2.5 goals 70%, over 3.5 goals 49%.
When and where is Greece vs Germany played?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Greece and Germany in?
Greece: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 5 conceded). Germany: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Greece and Germany?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Greece, 2 for Germany and 0 draws. The most recent ended Germany 2-1 Greece (Jun 7, 2024).
How is the Greece vs Germany prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.38 for Greece, 1.25 for Germany) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Greece predictions
- All Germany predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology