UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, October 2, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Belgium vs Türkiye prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Belgium take on Türkiye on Friday, October 2, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. Nothing is settled in advance: the AI gives Belgium 43%, Türkiye 37% and the draw 20%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (7.3%), ahead of 2-2 (7.3%) and 1-1 (6.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Belgium have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Türkiye have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Belgium score 2.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Türkiye score 1.80 and concede 1.20. Over their recent games, Belgium have averaged 1.92 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.25 for Türkiye.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Belgium and Türkiye: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Belgium or draw" stands at 63%, "Türkiye or draw" at 57% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : An evenly-matched game between Belgium and Türkiye: our model sees no clear favourite. On recent form, Belgium have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Türkiye have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 78%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Belgium – Türkiye. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (7.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 33% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Belgium 2-1 Türkiye | 7.3% |
| Belgium 2-2 Türkiye | 7.3% |
| Belgium 1-1 Türkiye | 6.7% |
| Belgium 1-2 Türkiye | 6.7% |
| Belgium 3-1 Türkiye | 5.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.16 goals in total (2.17 for Belgium, 1.99 for Türkiye): over 2.5 goals has a 78% probability and both teams to score 77%. Everything points to an open game. Belgium keep a clean sheet in 14% of scenarios, Türkiye in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Belgium expected goals | 2.17 |
| Türkiye expected goals | 1.99 |
| Both teams to score | 77% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60% |
| Belgium clean sheet | 14% |
| Türkiye clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Belgium
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 2026 | Spain · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 7, 2026 | United States · FIFA World Cup | 4-1 | W |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Senegal · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jun 27, 2026 | New Zealand · FIFA World Cup | 5-1 | W |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Iran · FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | D |
Türkiye
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | United States · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Paraguay · FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Australia · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Venezuela · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 1, 2026 | North Macedonia · International Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Türkiye | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Belgium and Türkiye: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Belgium
No absences reported.
Türkiye
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Belgium
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Mechele4/5
- L. Trossard4/5
- M. De Cuyper4/5
- T. Courtois4/5
- Y. Tielemans4/5
- C. De Ketelaere3/5
- K. De Bruyne3/5
- T. Castagne3/5
- A. Theate2/5
- H. Vanaken2/5
- J. Doku2/5
Türkiye
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Bardakci4/5
- A. Guler4/5
- O. Kokcu4/5
- U. Cakir4/5
- B. Yilmaz3/5
- E. Elmali3/5
- I. Yuksek3/5
- O. Kabak3/5
- Z. Celik3/5
- D. Gul2/5
- F. Kadioglu2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Belgium vs Türkiye prediction?
Our AI gives Belgium a 43% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Türkiye 37%. Belgium are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Belgium vs Türkiye?
2-1 (7.3%), followed by 2-2 (7.3%), 1-1 (6.7%), 1-2 (6.7%) and 3-1 (5.3%).
Will both teams score in Belgium vs Türkiye?
The probability that both Belgium and Türkiye score is 77%. Belgium have a 14% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Türkiye 11%.
How many goals should we expect in Belgium vs Türkiye?
The model expects 4.16 goals (2.17 for Belgium, 1.99 for Türkiye). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 92%, over 2.5 goals 78%, over 3.5 goals 60%.
When and where is Belgium vs Türkiye played?
Friday, October 2, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Belgium and Türkiye in?
Belgium: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 6 conceded). Türkiye: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded).
How is the Belgium vs Türkiye prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.17 for Belgium, 1.99 for Türkiye) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Belgium predictions
- All Türkiye predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology