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UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, October 2, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

Belgium vs Türkiye: 3-0 result and AI prediction review

BelgiumBelgium3 – 0TürkiyeTürkiye

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-1

Final score: Belgium 3-0 Türkiye. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Belgium was the model's favourite outcome (59%). The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.3%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (67%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (71%): correct.

Match analysis

Belgium vs Türkiye was played on Friday, October 2, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Liege. Before kick-off, our model gave Belgium a 59% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Türkiye 22%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (9.3%), ahead of 1-1 (8.0%) and 3-1 (7.1%).

Over their last 5 matches, Belgium have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Türkiye have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 10. Recent momentum is clearly with Belgium. On average Belgium score 2.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Türkiye score 0.80 and concede 2.00. In the table, Belgium sit 2nd with 3 points from 2 games, Türkiye 4th with 0 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Belgium have averaged 1.39 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.25 for Türkiye.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Belgium and Türkiye: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Belgium or draw" stands at 78%, "Türkiye or draw" at 41% and "no draw" at 81%.

In short : Our model backs Belgium to edge Türkiye (59% probability). On recent form, Belgium have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Türkiye are struggling (4 losses in 5). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 71%).

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

59%
Belgium (Win)
19%
Draw
22%
Türkiye (Win)

Double chance

78%
Belgium or draw
41%
Türkiye or draw
81%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Belgium – Türkiye. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Belgium 2-1 Türkiye9.3%
Belgium 1-1 Türkiye8.0%
Belgium 3-1 Türkiye7.1%
Belgium 2-0 Türkiye6.9%
Belgium 2-2 Türkiye6.3%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.66 goals in total (2.31 for Belgium, 1.35 for Türkiye): over 2.5 goals has a 71% probability and both teams to score 67%. Everything points to an open game. Belgium keep a clean sheet in 26% of scenarios, Türkiye in 10%.

Probability
Belgium expected goals2.31
Türkiye expected goals1.35
Both teams to score67%
Over 1.5 goals88%
Over 2.5 goals71%
Over 3.5 goals50%
Belgium clean sheet26%
Türkiye clean sheet10%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Belgium

DateOpponentScore
Sep 28, 2026France · UEFA Nations League0-1L
Sep 25, 2026Italy · UEFA Nations League2-0W
Jul 10, 2026Spain · FIFA World Cup1-2L
Jul 7, 2026United States · FIFA World Cup4-1W
Jul 1, 2026Senegal · FIFA World Cup3-2W

Türkiye

DateOpponentScore
Sep 28, 2026Italy · UEFA Nations League1-4L
Sep 25, 2026France · UEFA Nations League0-1L
Jun 26, 2026United States · FIFA World Cup3-2W
Jun 20, 2026Paraguay · FIFA World Cup0-1L
Jun 14, 2026Australia · FIFA World Cup0-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Belgium232
Türkiye402

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Belgium and Türkiye: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Belgium

No absences reported.

Türkiye

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Belgium

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • B. Mechele5/5
  • C. De Ketelaere5/5
  • T. Castagne5/5
  • K. De Bruyne4/5
  • M. De Cuyper4/5
  • N. Ngoy4/5
  • Y. Tielemans4/5
  • L. Trossard3/5
  • N. Raskin3/5
  • T. Courtois3/5
  • Diego Moreira2/5

Türkiye

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • M. Demiral4/5
  • A. Bardakci3/5
  • A. Guler3/5
  • U. Cakir3/5
  • A. Güler2/5
  • B. Yilmaz2/5
  • B. Yılmaz2/5
  • C. Uzun2/5
  • F. Kadioglu2/5
  • H. Calhanoglu2/5
  • I. Yuksek2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Belgium vs Türkiye prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Belgium a 59% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Türkiye 22%. Belgium are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Belgium vs Türkiye?

2-1 (9.3%), followed by 1-1 (8.0%), 3-1 (7.1%), 2-0 (6.9%) and 2-2 (6.3%).

Will both teams score in Belgium vs Türkiye?

The probability that both Belgium and Türkiye score is 67%. Belgium have a 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Türkiye 10%.

How many goals should we expect in Belgium vs Türkiye?

The model expects 3.66 goals (2.31 for Belgium, 1.35 for Türkiye). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 88%, over 2.5 goals 71%, over 3.5 goals 50%.

When and where is Belgium vs Türkiye played?

Friday, October 2, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Liege.

What form are Belgium and Türkiye in?

Belgium: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded). Türkiye: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 10 conceded).

What was the Belgium vs Türkiye result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Belgium 3-0 Türkiye. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Belgium was the model's favourite outcome (59%). The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.3%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (67%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (71%): correct.

How is the Belgium vs Türkiye prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.31 for Belgium, 1.35 for Türkiye) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained