UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, October 2, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-1 Sweden. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated a draw at 42%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.5%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (17%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (11%): correct.
Match analysis
Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden met on Friday, October 2, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Stadion Bilino Polje, Zenica. Before kick-off, our model gave Bosnia & Herzegovina a 18% chance of winning, the draw 42% and Sweden 40%. On the correct score, 0-0 comes out on top (31.7%), followed by 0-1 (23.7%) and 1-0 (12.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Bosnia & Herzegovina have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Sweden have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 11. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Bosnia & Herzegovina score 1.60 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Sweden score 1.40 and concede 2.20. In the table, Bosnia & Herzegovina sit 2nd with 4 points from 2 games, Sweden 1st with 6 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Bosnia & Herzegovina have averaged 0.39 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.77 for Sweden.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Bosnia & Herzegovina or draw" stands at 60%, "Sweden or draw" at 82% and "no draw" at 58%.
In short : Our model backs Sweden to edge Bosnia & Herzegovina (40% probability). In the table, Bosnia & Herzegovina (2nd, 4 pts) host Sweden (1st, 6 pts). The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Bosnia & Herzegovina – Sweden. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (31.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 87% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bosnia & Herzegovina 0-0 Sweden | 31.7% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina 0-1 Sweden | 23.7% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 Sweden | 12.7% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-1 Sweden | 9.5% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina 0-2 Sweden | 8.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.40 expected goals for Bosnia & Herzegovina and 0.75 for Sweden, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 11% and "both teams to score" at 17%. Few goals are expected here. Bosnia & Herzegovina keep a clean sheet in 47% of scenarios, Sweden in 67%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Bosnia & Herzegovina expected goals | 0.40 |
| Sweden expected goals | 0.75 |
| Both teams to score | 17% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 32% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 11% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina clean sheet | 47% |
| Sweden clean sheet | 67% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Bosnia & Herzegovina
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Romania · UEFA Nations League | 4-2 | W |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Poland · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Jul 2, 2026 | United States · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Qatar · FIFA World Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Switzerland · FIFA World Cup | 1-4 | L |
Sweden
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Poland · UEFA Nations League | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Romania · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 30, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 0-3 | L |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Japan · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Netherlands · FIFA World Cup | 1-5 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Sweden | 1 | 6 | 2 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Bosnia & Herzegovina
No absences reported.
Sweden
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Bajraktarevic3/5
- E. Demirovic3/5
- E. Dzeko3/5
- I. Sunjic3/5
- K. Alajbegovic3/5
- N. Katic3/5
- N. Vasilj3/5
- S. Kolasinac3/5
- A. Dedic2/5
- H. Tabaković2/5
- I. Bašić2/5
Sweden
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- V. Gyökeres5/5
- Y. Ayari5/5
- A. Isak4/5
- G. Gudmundsson4/5
- A. Bernhardsson3/5
- E. Stroud3/5
- G. Lagerbielke3/5
- L. Bergvall3/5
- V. Lindelof3/5
- A. Elanga2/5
- B. Nygren2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Kazakhstan 1-2 MoldovaOct 2, 2026
- Cyprus 2-0 ArmeniaOct 2, 2026
- Latvia 1-2 MontenegroOct 2, 2026
- Belgium 3-0 TürkiyeOct 2, 2026
- Faroe Islands 1-1 SlovakiaOct 2, 2026
- Ukraine 0-3 Northern IrelandOct 2, 2026
- France 1-1 ItalyOct 2, 2026
- Finland 2-1 AlbaniaOct 3, 2026
- Croatia 0-7 EnglandOct 3, 2026
- Estonia 1-0 LuxembourgOct 3, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Bosnia & Herzegovina a 18% chance of winning, the draw 42% and Sweden 40%. A draw is therefore the most likely outcome. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden?
0-0 (31.7%), followed by 0-1 (23.7%), 1-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (9.5%) and 0-2 (8.9%).
Will both teams score in Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden?
The probability that both Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden score is 17%. Bosnia & Herzegovina have a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sweden 67%.
How many goals should we expect in Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden?
The model expects 1.15 goals (0.40 for Bosnia & Herzegovina, 0.75 for Sweden). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 32%, over 2.5 goals 11%, over 3.5 goals 3%.
When and where is Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden played?
Friday, October 2, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Stadion Bilino Polje, Zenica.
What form are Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden in?
Bosnia & Herzegovina: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded). Sweden: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 11 conceded).
What was the Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-1 Sweden. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated a draw at 42%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.5%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (17%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (11%): correct.
How is the Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.40 for Bosnia & Herzegovina, 0.75 for Sweden) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Bosnia & Herzegovina predictions
- All Sweden predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology