UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, October 2, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden match is scheduled on Friday, October 2, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). Our model makes Sweden clear favourites: a 60% chance of winning, against 29% for the draw and 11% for Bosnia & Herzegovina. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (24.3%), followed by 0-0 (19.0%) and 0-2 (15.6%).
Bosnia & Herzegovina have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Sweden have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 11. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Bosnia & Herzegovina score 1.20 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Sweden score 1.80 and concede 2.20. In the table, Bosnia & Herzegovina sit 3rd with 1 points from 1 games, Sweden 1st with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Bosnia & Herzegovina have averaged 0.53 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.91 for Sweden.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Bosnia & Herzegovina or draw" stands at 40%, "Sweden or draw" at 89% and "no draw" at 71%.
In short : Our model backs Sweden to edge Bosnia & Herzegovina (60% probability). In the table, Bosnia & Herzegovina (3rd, 1 pts) host Sweden (1st, 3 pts). The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Bosnia & Herzegovina – Sweden. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (24.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 75% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bosnia & Herzegovina 0-1 Sweden | 24.3% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina 0-0 Sweden | 19.0% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina 0-2 Sweden | 15.6% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-1 Sweden | 9.2% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 Sweden | 7.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.38 expected goals for Bosnia & Herzegovina and 1.28 for Sweden, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 23% and "both teams to score" at 23%. Few goals are expected here. Bosnia & Herzegovina keep a clean sheet in 28% of scenarios, Sweden in 68%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Bosnia & Herzegovina expected goals | 0.38 |
| Sweden expected goals | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | 23% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 23% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina clean sheet | 28% |
| Sweden clean sheet | 68% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Bosnia & Herzegovina
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | United States · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Qatar · FIFA World Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Switzerland · FIFA World Cup | 1-4 | L |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Canada · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Panama · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Sweden
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Romania · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 30, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 0-3 | L |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Japan · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Netherlands · FIFA World Cup | 1-5 | L |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Tunisia · FIFA World Cup | 5-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Sweden | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Bosnia & Herzegovina
No absences reported.
Sweden
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Demirovic5/5
- N. Katic5/5
- N. Vasilj5/5
- S. Kolasinac5/5
- A. Dedic4/5
- K. Alajbegovic4/5
- T. Muharemovic4/5
- B. Tahirovic3/5
- E. Bajraktarevic3/5
- E. Dzeko3/5
- I. Basic3/5
Sweden
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Isak5/5
- V. Gyökeres5/5
- Y. Ayari5/5
- A. Bernhardsson4/5
- G. Gudmundsson4/5
- G. Lagerbielke4/5
- V. Lindelof4/5
- E. Stroud3/5
- I. Hien3/5
- A. Elanga2/5
- B. Nygren2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Kazakhstan – MoldovaOct 2, 2026
- Cyprus – ArmeniaOct 2, 2026
- Latvia – MontenegroOct 2, 2026
- Belgium – TürkiyeOct 2, 2026
- Faroe Islands – SlovakiaOct 2, 2026
- Ukraine – Northern IrelandOct 2, 2026
- France – ItalyOct 2, 2026
- Finland – AlbaniaOct 3, 2026
- Croatia – EnglandOct 3, 2026
- Estonia – LuxembourgOct 3, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden prediction?
Our AI gives Bosnia & Herzegovina a 11% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Sweden 60%. Sweden are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden?
0-1 (24.3%), followed by 0-0 (19.0%), 0-2 (15.6%), 1-1 (9.2%) and 1-0 (7.2%).
Will both teams score in Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden?
The probability that both Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden score is 23%. Bosnia & Herzegovina have a 28% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sweden 68%.
How many goals should we expect in Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden?
The model expects 1.66 goals (0.38 for Bosnia & Herzegovina, 1.28 for Sweden). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 49%, over 2.5 goals 23%, over 3.5 goals 9%.
When and where is Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden played?
Friday, October 2, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden in?
Bosnia & Herzegovina: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 9 conceded). Sweden: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 11 conceded).
How is the Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.38 for Bosnia & Herzegovina, 1.28 for Sweden) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Bosnia & Herzegovina predictions
- All Sweden predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology