UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, October 2, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Latvia vs Montenegro: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Latvia 1-2 Montenegro. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Montenegro at 51%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (8.4%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (36%): missed.
Match analysis
Latvia and Montenegro met on Friday, October 2, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Skonto, Riga. Before kick-off, our model gave Latvia a 21% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Montenegro 51%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (16.3%), followed by 1-1 (12.4%) and 0-0 (12.0%).
Latvia have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Montenegro have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Montenegro therefore arrive in far better shape than Latvia. On average Latvia score 0.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Montenegro score 2.00 and concede 1.60. In the table, Latvia sit 4th with 1 points from 2 games, Montenegro 1st with 6 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Latvia, 1 for Montenegro and 2 draws. The most recent ended Montenegro 0-0 Latvia (Sep 7, 2021). In double chance terms, "Latvia or draw" stands at 49%, "Montenegro or draw" at 79% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : Our model backs Montenegro to edge Latvia (51% probability). In the table, Latvia (4th, 1 pts) host Montenegro (1st, 6 pts). The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Latvia – Montenegro. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (16.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 61% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Latvia 0-1 Montenegro | 16.3% |
| Latvia 1-1 Montenegro | 12.4% |
| Latvia 0-0 Montenegro | 12.0% |
| Latvia 0-2 Montenegro | 11.1% |
| Latvia 1-0 Montenegro | 9.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.76 expected goals for Latvia and 1.36 for Montenegro, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 36% and "both teams to score" at 40%. Few goals are expected here. Latvia keep a clean sheet in 26% of scenarios, Montenegro in 47%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Latvia expected goals | 0.76 |
| Montenegro expected goals | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score | 40% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% |
| Latvia clean sheet | 26% |
| Montenegro clean sheet | 47% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Latvia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Cyprus · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Armenia · UEFA Nations League | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Faroe Islands · Baltic Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Lithuania · Baltic Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Gibraltar · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
Montenegro
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Armenia · UEFA Nations League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Cyprus · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Slovakia · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Bulgaria · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Slovenia · International Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latvia | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Montenegro | 1 | 6 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 2021 | Montenegro 0-0 Latvia | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 24, 2021 | Latvia 1-2 Montenegro | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Oct 7, 2020 | Montenegro 1-1 Latvia | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Latvia
No absences reported.
Montenegro
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Latvia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Vapne4/5
- E. Emsis3/5
- R. Jurkovskis3/5
- A. Cernomordijs2/5
- A. Černomordijs2/5
- A. Ciganiks2/5
- A. Cigaņiks2/5
- D. Cirkin2/5
- D. Meļņiks2/5
- D. Zelenkovs2/5
- F. Orols2/5
Montenegro
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- I. Vujacic3/5
- A. Bulatovic2/5
- A. Bulatović2/5
- A. Marusic2/5
- B. Popović2/5
- D. Camaj2/5
- M. Jankovic2/5
- M. Janković2/5
- M. Osmajic2/5
- M. Osmajić2/5
- M. Roganović2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Denmark 2-4 PortugalOct 1, 2026
- Kazakhstan 1-2 MoldovaOct 2, 2026
- Cyprus 2-0 ArmeniaOct 2, 2026
- Belgium 3-0 TürkiyeOct 2, 2026
- Faroe Islands 1-1 SlovakiaOct 2, 2026
- Ukraine 0-3 Northern IrelandOct 2, 2026
- Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-1 SwedenOct 2, 2026
- France 1-1 ItalyOct 2, 2026
- Hungary 1-0 GeorgiaOct 2, 2026
- Finland 2-1 AlbaniaOct 3, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Latvia vs Montenegro prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Latvia a 21% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Montenegro 51%. Montenegro are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Latvia vs Montenegro?
0-1 (16.3%), followed by 1-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.0%), 0-2 (11.1%) and 1-0 (9.1%).
Will both teams score in Latvia vs Montenegro?
The probability that both Latvia and Montenegro score is 40%. Latvia have a 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Montenegro 47%.
How many goals should we expect in Latvia vs Montenegro?
The model expects 2.12 goals (0.76 for Latvia, 1.36 for Montenegro). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 63%, over 2.5 goals 36%, over 3.5 goals 17%.
When and where is Latvia vs Montenegro played?
Friday, October 2, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Skonto, Riga.
What form are Latvia and Montenegro in?
Latvia: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 4 conceded). Montenegro: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Latvia and Montenegro?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Latvia, 1 for Montenegro and 2 draws. The most recent ended Montenegro 0-0 Latvia (Sep 7, 2021).
What was the Latvia vs Montenegro result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Latvia 1-2 Montenegro. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Montenegro at 51%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (8.4%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (36%): missed.
How is the Latvia vs Montenegro prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.76 for Latvia, 1.36 for Montenegro) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Latvia predictions
- All Montenegro predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology