UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, October 2, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Latvia vs Montenegro prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Latvia vs Montenegro match is scheduled on Friday, October 2, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time). Latvia start as favourites with a 51% chance of victory; Montenegro are given 24% and the draw 25%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Latvia have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Montenegro have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Latvia score 0.80 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Montenegro score 1.80 and concede 1.60.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Latvia and Montenegro: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Latvia or draw" stands at 76%, "Montenegro or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Our model backs Latvia to edge Montenegro (51% probability). On recent form, Latvia have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Montenegro have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 52%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Latvia – Montenegro. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Latvia 1-1 Montenegro | 11.8% |
| Latvia 1-0 Montenegro | 11.4% |
| Latvia 2-1 Montenegro | 9.5% |
| Latvia 2-0 Montenegro | 9.3% |
| Latvia 0-1 Montenegro | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.62 expected goals for Latvia and 1.03 for Montenegro, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Latvia keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Montenegro in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Latvia expected goals | 1.62 |
| Montenegro expected goals | 1.03 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Latvia clean sheet | 36% |
| Montenegro clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Latvia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Faroe Islands · Baltic Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Lithuania · Baltic Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Gibraltar · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Gibraltar · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Serbia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-2 | L |
Montenegro
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Slovakia · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Bulgaria · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Slovenia · International Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Andorra · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Croatia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latvia | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Montenegro | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Latvia and Montenegro: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Latvia
No absences reported.
Montenegro
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Latvia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Vapne3/5
- R. Jurkovskis3/5
- R. Savalnieks3/5
- A. Cernomordijs2/5
- A. Ciganiks2/5
- Andrejs Cigaņiks2/5
- Antonijs Černomordijs2/5
- D. Melniks2/5
- Dmitrijs Zelenkovs2/5
- E. Emsis2/5
- F. Orols2/5
Montenegro
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Bulatovic3/5
- A. Marusic3/5
- M. Jankovic3/5
- M. Osmajic3/5
- Balša Popović2/5
- I. Vujacic2/5
- Igor Vujačić2/5
- Milan Vukotić2/5
- N. Krstovic2/5
- S. Haksabanovic2/5
- S. Loncar2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Latvia vs Montenegro prediction?
Our AI gives Latvia a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Montenegro 24%. Latvia are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Latvia vs Montenegro?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.3%) and 0-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Latvia vs Montenegro?
The probability that both Latvia and Montenegro score is 52%. Latvia have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Montenegro 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Latvia vs Montenegro?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.62 for Latvia, 1.03 for Montenegro). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Latvia vs Montenegro played?
Friday, October 2, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Latvia and Montenegro in?
Latvia: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 4 conceded). Montenegro: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 8 conceded).
How is the Latvia vs Montenegro prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.62 for Latvia, 1.03 for Montenegro) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Latvia predictions
- All Montenegro predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology