UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 1, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Denmark vs Portugal prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Denmark take on Portugal on Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. Our model makes Portugal clear favourites: a 73% chance of winning, against 16% for the draw and 11% for Denmark. On the correct score, 0-2 comes out on top (10.2%), followed by 1-2 (9.3%) and 0-3 (8.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Denmark have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Portugal have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 2. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Denmark score 1.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Portugal score 1.60 and concede 0.40. In the table, Denmark sit 3rd with 0 points from 1 games, Portugal 2nd with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Denmark and Portugal: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Denmark or draw" stands at 27%, "Portugal or draw" at 89% and "no draw" at 84%.
In short : Our model backs Portugal to edge Denmark (73% probability). On recent form, Denmark have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Portugal have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 67%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Denmark – Portugal. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (10.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Denmark 0-2 Portugal | 10.2% |
| Denmark 1-2 Portugal | 9.3% |
| Denmark 0-3 Portugal | 8.7% |
| Denmark 0-1 Portugal | 8.1% |
| Denmark 1-3 Portugal | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.91 expected goals for Denmark and 2.54 for Portugal, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 67% and "both teams to score" at 55%. Goals look likely in this one. Denmark keep a clean sheet in 8% of scenarios, Portugal in 40%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Denmark expected goals | 0.91 |
| Portugal expected goals | 2.54 |
| Both teams to score | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% |
| Denmark clean sheet | 8% |
| Portugal clean sheet | 40% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Denmark
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Norway · UEFA Nations League | 2-3 | L |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Ukraine · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | DR Congo · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Czechia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 26, 2026 | North Macedonia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 4-0 | W |
Portugal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Wales · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Spain · FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Croatia · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Colombia · FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | D |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Uzbekistan · FIFA World Cup | 5-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Portugal | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Denmark and Portugal: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Denmark
No absences reported.
Portugal
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Denmark
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Maehle4/5
- P. Hojbjerg4/5
- A. Bah3/5
- J. Andersen3/5
- M. Damsgaard3/5
- M. Hermansen3/5
- M. Hjulmand3/5
- P. Dorgu3/5
- R. Hojlund3/5
- V. Froholdt3/5
- A. Christensen2/5
Portugal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Vitinha5/5
- B. Fernandes4/5
- C. Ronaldo4/5
- D. Costa4/5
- J. Cancelo4/5
- N. Mendes4/5
- P. Neto4/5
- R. Dias4/5
- R. Veiga4/5
- J. Neves3/5
- Joao Felix3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Denmark vs Portugal prediction?
Our AI gives Denmark a 11% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Portugal 73%. Portugal are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Denmark vs Portugal?
0-2 (10.2%), followed by 1-2 (9.3%), 0-3 (8.7%), 0-1 (8.1%) and 1-3 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Denmark vs Portugal?
The probability that both Denmark and Portugal score is 55%. Denmark have a 8% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Portugal 40%.
How many goals should we expect in Denmark vs Portugal?
The model expects 3.45 goals (0.91 for Denmark, 2.54 for Portugal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 67%, over 3.5 goals 45%.
When and where is Denmark vs Portugal played?
Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Denmark and Portugal in?
Denmark: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded). Portugal: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 2 conceded).
How is the Denmark vs Portugal prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.91 for Denmark, 2.54 for Portugal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Denmark predictions
- All Portugal predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology