UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 1, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Denmark vs Portugal: 2-4 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Denmark 2-4 Portugal. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Portugal at 41%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (55%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
Match analysis
Denmark and Portugal met on Thursday, October 1, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Parken Stadium, Copenhagen. Before kick-off, our model gave Denmark a 33% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Portugal 41%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.2%), followed by 0-1 (9.7%) and 1-2 (8.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Denmark have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Portugal have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Denmark score 1.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Portugal score 1.00 and concede 0.60. In the table, Denmark sit 3rd with 3 points from 2 games, Portugal 1st with 6 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Denmark, 2 for Portugal and 0 draws. The most recent ended Portugal 5-2 Denmark (Mar 23, 2025). In double chance terms, "Denmark or draw" stands at 59%, "Portugal or draw" at 67% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : An evenly-matched game between Denmark and Portugal: our model sees no clear favourite. On recent form, Denmark have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Portugal have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 55%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Denmark – Portugal. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 47% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Denmark 1-1 Portugal | 12.2% |
| Denmark 0-1 Portugal | 9.7% |
| Denmark 1-2 Portugal | 8.7% |
| Denmark 1-0 Portugal | 8.6% |
| Denmark 2-1 Portugal | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.26 expected goals for Denmark and 1.43 for Portugal, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 55%. Denmark keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Portugal in 28%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Denmark expected goals | 1.26 |
| Portugal expected goals | 1.43 |
| Both teams to score | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Denmark clean sheet | 24% |
| Portugal clean sheet | 28% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Denmark
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Wales · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Norway · UEFA Nations League | 2-3 | L |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Ukraine · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | DR Congo · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Czechia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 | D |
Portugal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Norway · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Wales · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Spain · FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Croatia · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Colombia · FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Portugal | 1 | 6 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2025 | Portugal 5-2 Denmark | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 20, 2025 | Denmark 1-0 Portugal | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 13, 2012 | Denmark 2-3 Portugal | Euro Championship |
Out and doubtful
Denmark
No absences reported.
Portugal
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Denmark
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Andersen4/5
- P. Dorgu4/5
- J. Maehle3/5
- M. Damsgaard3/5
- M. Hjulmand3/5
- O. Provstgaard3/5
- P. Hojbjerg3/5
- R. Kristensen3/5
- A. Bah2/5
- A. Christensen2/5
- C. Eriksen2/5
Portugal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Vitinha4/5
- B. Fernandes3/5
- C. Ronaldo3/5
- D. Costa3/5
- J. Cancelo3/5
- N. Mendes3/5
- P. Neto3/5
- R. Dias3/5
- R. Veiga3/5
- Diogo Costa2/5
- J. Neves2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Azerbaijan 0-0 LiechtensteinOct 1, 2026
- Malta 1-1 GibraltarOct 1, 2026
- Israel 0-0 KosovoOct 1, 2026
- Greece 2-2 NetherlandsOct 1, 2026
- Ireland 2-2 AustriaOct 1, 2026
- Germany 2-0 SerbiaOct 1, 2026
- Wales 2-1 NorwayOct 1, 2026
- Kazakhstan 1-2 MoldovaOct 2, 2026
- Cyprus 2-0 ArmeniaOct 2, 2026
- Latvia 1-2 MontenegroOct 2, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Denmark vs Portugal prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Denmark a 33% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Portugal 41%. Portugal are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-4.
What is the most likely correct score for Denmark vs Portugal?
1-1 (12.2%), followed by 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (8.7%), 1-0 (8.6%) and 2-1 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Denmark vs Portugal?
The probability that both Denmark and Portugal score is 55%. Denmark have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Portugal 28%.
How many goals should we expect in Denmark vs Portugal?
The model expects 2.69 goals (1.26 for Denmark, 1.43 for Portugal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Denmark vs Portugal played?
Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Parken Stadium, Copenhagen.
What form are Denmark and Portugal in?
Denmark: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded). Portugal: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Denmark and Portugal?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Denmark, 2 for Portugal and 0 draws. The most recent ended Portugal 5-2 Denmark (Mar 23, 2025).
What was the Denmark vs Portugal result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Denmark 2-4 Portugal. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Portugal at 41%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (55%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
How is the Denmark vs Portugal prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.26 for Denmark, 1.43 for Portugal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Denmark predictions
- All Portugal predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology