UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 1, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Malta vs Gibraltar: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Malta 1-1 Gibraltar. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Malta (77%), while a draw was rated at only 17%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.0%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (29%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (45%): correct.
Match analysis
Malta vs Gibraltar was played on Thursday, October 1, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Ta'Qali National Stadium, Takali. Before kick-off, our model gave Malta a 77% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Gibraltar 6%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (18.1%), ahead of 1-0 (17.5%) and 3-0 (12.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Malta have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Gibraltar have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 2. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Malta score 1.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Gibraltar score 1.60 and concede 0.40. In the table, Malta sit 1st with 3 points from 1 games, Gibraltar 2nd with 1 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Malta, 0 for Gibraltar and 0 draws. The most recent ended Malta 1-0 Gibraltar (Sep 6, 2023). In double chance terms, "Malta or draw" stands at 94%, "Gibraltar or draw" at 23% and "no draw" at 83%.
In short : Malta are favourites for this Malta v Gibraltar, with a 77% win probability from our model. In the table, Malta (1st, 3 pts) host Gibraltar (2nd, 1 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Malta – Gibraltar. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (18.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 64% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Malta 2-0 Gibraltar | 18.1% |
| Malta 1-0 Gibraltar | 17.5% |
| Malta 3-0 Gibraltar | 12.5% |
| Malta 0-0 Gibraltar | 8.5% |
| Malta 2-1 Gibraltar | 7.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.47 goals in total (2.07 for Malta, 0.40 for Gibraltar): over 2.5 goals has a 45% probability and both teams to score 29%. Malta keep a clean sheet in 67% of scenarios, Gibraltar in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Malta expected goals | 2.07 |
| Gibraltar expected goals | 0.40 |
| Both teams to score | 29% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% |
| Malta clean sheet | 67% |
| Gibraltar clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Malta
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Liechtenstein · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Andorra · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Azerbaijan · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Slovakia · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Luxembourg · UEFA Nations League | 0-3 | L |
Gibraltar
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Andorra · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 23, 2026 | São Tomé & Príncipe · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Cayman Islands · International Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | British Virgin Islands · International Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Latvia · UEFA Nations League | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malta | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Gibraltar | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2023 | Malta 1-0 Gibraltar | International Friendlies |
| Oct 7, 2020 | Malta 2-0 Gibraltar | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Malta
No absences reported.
Gibraltar
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Malta
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. C. Corbalan3/5
- K. Ewurum3/5
- A. Satariano2/5
- Alexander Satariano2/5
- Enrico Pepe2/5
- Henry Bonello2/5
- Irvin Cardona2/5
- J. Mbong2/5
- K. Shaw2/5
- M. Guillaumier2/5
- Matthew Guillaumier2/5
Gibraltar
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Banda4/5
- B. Lopes4/5
- J. Scanlon4/5
- J. Valarino4/5
- L. Mason4/5
- N. Pozo4/5
- D. Bent3/5
- E. Jolley3/5
- K. Ronan3/5
- T. De Barr3/5
- D. Borge2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Azerbaijan 0-0 LiechtensteinOct 1, 2026
- Denmark 2-4 PortugalOct 1, 2026
- Israel 0-0 KosovoOct 1, 2026
- Greece 2-2 NetherlandsOct 1, 2026
- Ireland 2-2 AustriaOct 1, 2026
- Germany 2-0 SerbiaOct 1, 2026
- Wales 2-1 NorwayOct 1, 2026
- Kazakhstan 1-2 MoldovaOct 2, 2026
- Cyprus 2-0 ArmeniaOct 2, 2026
- Latvia 1-2 MontenegroOct 2, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Malta vs Gibraltar prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Malta a 77% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Gibraltar 6%. Malta are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Malta vs Gibraltar?
2-0 (18.1%), followed by 1-0 (17.5%), 3-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (8.5%) and 2-1 (7.2%).
Will both teams score in Malta vs Gibraltar?
The probability that both Malta and Gibraltar score is 29%. Malta have a 67% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Gibraltar 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Malta vs Gibraltar?
The model expects 2.47 goals (2.07 for Malta, 0.40 for Gibraltar). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 71%, over 2.5 goals 45%, over 3.5 goals 24%.
When and where is Malta vs Gibraltar played?
Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Ta'Qali National Stadium, Takali.
What form are Malta and Gibraltar in?
Malta: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded). Gibraltar: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 2 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Malta and Gibraltar?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Malta, 0 for Gibraltar and 0 draws. The most recent ended Malta 1-0 Gibraltar (Sep 6, 2023).
What was the Malta vs Gibraltar result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Malta 1-1 Gibraltar. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Malta (77%), while a draw was rated at only 17%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.0%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (29%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (45%): correct.
How is the Malta vs Gibraltar prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.07 for Malta, 0.40 for Gibraltar) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Malta predictions
- All Gibraltar predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology