UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 1, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Malta vs Gibraltar prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: Malta vs Gibraltar kicks off on Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). With a 68% win probability, Malta go in as strong favourites against Gibraltar (13%), with the draw rated at 19%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.1%), ahead of 1-0 (11.6%) and 2-1 (9.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Malta have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Gibraltar have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 3. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Malta score 1.00 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Gibraltar score 1.60 and concede 0.60.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Malta and Gibraltar: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Malta or draw" stands at 87%, "Gibraltar or draw" at 32% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Malta are favourites for this Malta v Gibraltar, with a 68% win probability from our model. On recent form, Malta have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Gibraltar have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Malta – Gibraltar. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Malta 2-0 Gibraltar | 12.1% |
| Malta 1-0 Gibraltar | 11.6% |
| Malta 2-1 Gibraltar | 9.7% |
| Malta 1-1 Gibraltar | 9.2% |
| Malta 3-0 Gibraltar | 8.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.90 goals in total (2.10 for Malta, 0.80 for Gibraltar): over 2.5 goals has a 55% probability and both teams to score 48%. Malta keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Gibraltar in 12%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Malta expected goals | 2.10 |
| Gibraltar expected goals | 0.80 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% |
| Malta clean sheet | 45% |
| Gibraltar clean sheet | 12% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Malta
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Andorra · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Azerbaijan · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Slovakia · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Luxembourg · UEFA Nations League | 0-3 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Luxembourg · UEFA Nations League | 0-2 | L |
Gibraltar
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sao Tome and Principe · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Cayman Islands · International Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | British Virgin Islands · International Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Latvia · UEFA Nations League | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Latvia · UEFA Nations League | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malta | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Gibraltar | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Malta and Gibraltar: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Malta
No absences reported.
Gibraltar
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Malta
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Alexander Satariano3/5
- Enrico Pepe3/5
- Henry Bonello3/5
- Irvin Cardona3/5
- Matthew Guillaumier3/5
- Paul Mbong3/5
- Ryan Camenzuli3/5
- Ylyas Chouaref3/5
- Zach Muscat3/5
- A. Satariano2/5
- J. C. Corbalan2/5
Gibraltar
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Bernardo Lopes3/5
- James Scanlon3/5
- Nicholas Pozo3/5
- B. Banda2/5
- B. Lopes2/5
- Carlos Richards2/5
- D. Bent2/5
- Dan Bent2/5
- E. Jolley2/5
- Ethan Jolley2/5
- Graeme Torrilla2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Malta vs Gibraltar prediction?
Our AI gives Malta a 68% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Gibraltar 13%. Malta are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Malta vs Gibraltar?
2-0 (12.1%), followed by 1-0 (11.6%), 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.2%) and 3-0 (8.5%).
Will both teams score in Malta vs Gibraltar?
The probability that both Malta and Gibraltar score is 48%. Malta have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Gibraltar 12%.
How many goals should we expect in Malta vs Gibraltar?
The model expects 2.90 goals (2.10 for Malta, 0.80 for Gibraltar). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 33%.
When and where is Malta vs Gibraltar played?
Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Malta and Gibraltar in?
Malta: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 8 conceded). Gibraltar: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 3 conceded).
How is the Malta vs Gibraltar prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.10 for Malta, 0.80 for Gibraltar) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Malta predictions
- All Gibraltar predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology