UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 1, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Greece vs Netherlands prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Greece vs Netherlands match is scheduled on Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). With a 71% win probability, Greece go in as strong favourites against Netherlands (12%), with the draw rated at 17%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (11.4%), ahead of 1-0 (9.6%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Greece have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 5. Netherlands are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 13 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Netherlands. On average Greece score 0.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Netherlands score 2.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, Greece sit 1st with 3 points from 1 games, Netherlands 3rd with 1 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Greece and Netherlands: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Greece or draw" stands at 88%, "Netherlands or draw" at 29% and "no draw" at 83%.
In short : Greece are favourites for this Greece v Netherlands, with a 71% win probability from our model. In the table, Greece (1st, 3 pts) host Netherlands (3rd, 1 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Greece – Netherlands. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Greece 2-0 Netherlands | 11.4% |
| Greece 1-0 Netherlands | 9.6% |
| Greece 2-1 Netherlands | 9.5% |
| Greece 3-0 Netherlands | 8.9% |
| Greece 1-1 Netherlands | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.20 goals in total (2.36 for Greece, 0.84 for Netherlands): over 2.5 goals has a 62% probability and both teams to score 52%. Everything points to an open game. Greece keep a clean sheet in 43% of scenarios, Netherlands in 9%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Greece expected goals | 2.36 |
| Netherlands expected goals | 0.84 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% |
| Greece clean sheet | 43% |
| Netherlands clean sheet | 9% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Greece
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Serbia · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Italy · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Sweden · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Hungary · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Paraguay · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
Netherlands
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2026 | Morocco · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Tunisia · FIFA World Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Sweden · FIFA World Cup | 5-1 | W |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Japan · FIFA World Cup | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Uzbekistan · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greece | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Netherlands | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Greece and Netherlands: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Greece
No absences reported.
Netherlands
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Greece
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Tzolis5/5
- D. Kourbelis4/5
- P. Retsos4/5
- G. Vagiannidis3/5
- K. Koulierakis3/5
- K. Mavropanos3/5
- K. Tsimikas3/5
- K. Tzolakis3/5
- V. Pavlidis3/5
- A. Bakasetas2/5
- A. Douvikas2/5
Netherlands
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Verbruggen5/5
- C. Gakpo5/5
- D. Dumfries5/5
- F. de Jong5/5
- J. P. van Hecke5/5
- R. Gravenberch5/5
- V. van Dijk5/5
- D. Malen4/5
- M. van de Ven4/5
- T. Reijnders4/5
- B. Brobbey3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Greece vs Netherlands prediction?
Our AI gives Greece a 71% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Netherlands 12%. Greece are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Greece vs Netherlands?
2-0 (11.4%), followed by 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.5%), 3-0 (8.9%) and 1-1 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Greece vs Netherlands?
The probability that both Greece and Netherlands score is 52%. Greece have a 43% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Netherlands 9%.
How many goals should we expect in Greece vs Netherlands?
The model expects 3.20 goals (2.36 for Greece, 0.84 for Netherlands). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 83%, over 2.5 goals 62%, over 3.5 goals 40%.
When and where is Greece vs Netherlands played?
Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Greece and Netherlands in?
Greece: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 5 conceded). Netherlands: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 6 conceded).
How is the Greece vs Netherlands prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.36 for Greece, 0.84 for Netherlands) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Greece predictions
- All Netherlands predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology