UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 1, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Greece vs Netherlands: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Greece 2-2 Netherlands. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Netherlands (45%), while a draw was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.5%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (43%): missed.
Match analysis
Greece vs Netherlands was played on Thursday, October 1, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki. Before kick-off, our model gave Greece a 28% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Netherlands 45%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.8%), ahead of 0-1 (12.4%) and 1-0 (9.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Greece have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 5 and conceding 4. Netherlands are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 12 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Netherlands. On average Greece score 1.00 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Netherlands score 2.40 and concede 1.00. In the table, Greece sit 1st with 6 points from 2 games, Netherlands 2nd with 4 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Greece, 2 for Netherlands and 0 draws. The most recent ended Greece 0-1 Netherlands (Oct 16, 2023). In double chance terms, "Greece or draw" stands at 55%, "Netherlands or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Netherlands are favourites for this Greece v Netherlands, with a 45% win probability from our model. In the table, Greece (1st, 6 pts) host Netherlands (2nd, 4 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Greece – Netherlands. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Greece 1-1 Netherlands | 12.8% |
| Greece 0-1 Netherlands | 12.4% |
| Greece 1-0 Netherlands | 9.3% |
| Greece 0-0 Netherlands | 9.0% |
| Greece 1-2 Netherlands | 8.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.41 goals in total (1.03 for Greece, 1.38 for Netherlands): over 2.5 goals has a 43% probability and both teams to score 48%. Greece keep a clean sheet in 25% of scenarios, Netherlands in 36%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Greece expected goals | 1.03 |
| Netherlands expected goals | 1.38 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% |
| Greece clean sheet | 25% |
| Netherlands clean sheet | 36% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Greece
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Germany · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Serbia · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Italy · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Sweden · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Hungary · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
Netherlands
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Serbia · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Germany · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Morocco · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Tunisia · FIFA World Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Sweden · FIFA World Cup | 5-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greece | 1 | 6 | 2 |
| Netherlands | 2 | 4 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2023 | Greece 0-1 Netherlands | Euro Championship - Qualification |
| Sep 7, 2023 | Netherlands 3-0 Greece | Euro Championship - Qualification |
Out and doubtful
Greece
No absences reported.
Netherlands
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Greece
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Tzolis5/5
- P. Retsos5/5
- G. Vagiannidis4/5
- K. Tsimikas4/5
- K. Tzolakis4/5
- V. Pavlidis4/5
- C. Zafeiris3/5
- D. Kourbelis3/5
- K. Koulierakis3/5
- K. Mavropanos3/5
- A. Tetteh2/5
Netherlands
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Verbruggen5/5
- C. Gakpo5/5
- D. Dumfries5/5
- R. Gravenberch5/5
- V. van Dijk5/5
- B. Brobbey4/5
- M. van de Ven4/5
- T. Reijnders4/5
- C. Summerville3/5
- F. de Jong3/5
- J. P. van Hecke3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Azerbaijan 0-0 LiechtensteinOct 1, 2026
- Denmark 2-4 PortugalOct 1, 2026
- Malta 1-1 GibraltarOct 1, 2026
- Israel 0-0 KosovoOct 1, 2026
- Ireland 2-2 AustriaOct 1, 2026
- Germany 2-0 SerbiaOct 1, 2026
- Wales 2-1 NorwayOct 1, 2026
- Kazakhstan 1-2 MoldovaOct 2, 2026
- Cyprus 2-0 ArmeniaOct 2, 2026
- Latvia 1-2 MontenegroOct 2, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Greece vs Netherlands prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Greece a 28% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Netherlands 45%. Netherlands are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Greece vs Netherlands?
1-1 (12.8%), followed by 0-1 (12.4%), 1-0 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.0%) and 1-2 (8.8%).
Will both teams score in Greece vs Netherlands?
The probability that both Greece and Netherlands score is 48%. Greece have a 25% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Netherlands 36%.
How many goals should we expect in Greece vs Netherlands?
The model expects 2.41 goals (1.03 for Greece, 1.38 for Netherlands). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 69%, over 2.5 goals 43%, over 3.5 goals 22%.
When and where is Greece vs Netherlands played?
Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki.
What form are Greece and Netherlands in?
Greece: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 4 conceded). Netherlands: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Greece and Netherlands?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Greece, 2 for Netherlands and 0 draws. The most recent ended Greece 0-1 Netherlands (Oct 16, 2023).
What was the Greece vs Netherlands result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Greece 2-2 Netherlands. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Netherlands (45%), while a draw was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.5%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (43%): missed.
How is the Greece vs Netherlands prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.03 for Greece, 1.38 for Netherlands) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Greece predictions
- All Netherlands predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology