UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 1, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Germany vs Serbia: 2-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Germany 2-0 Serbia. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Germany was the model's favourite outcome (49%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.3%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): correct.
Match analysis
Germany vs Serbia was played on Thursday, October 1, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich. Before kick-off, our model gave Germany a 49% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Serbia 25%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (12.2%), ahead of 1-1 (12.2%) and 2-0 (9.3%).
Germany have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 6. Serbia have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 13. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Germany score 1.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Serbia score 1.00 and concede 2.60. In the table, Germany sit 3rd with 1 points from 2 games, Serbia 4th with 0 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Germany, 1 for Serbia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Germany 1-1 Serbia (Mar 20, 2019). In double chance terms, "Germany or draw" stands at 75%, "Serbia or draw" at 51% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Germany are favourites for this Germany v Serbia, with a 49% win probability from our model. In the table, Germany (3rd, 1 pts) host Serbia (4th, 0 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Germany – Serbia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Germany 1-0 Serbia | 12.2% |
| Germany 1-1 Serbia | 12.2% |
| Germany 2-0 Serbia | 9.3% |
| Germany 2-1 Serbia | 9.3% |
| Germany 0-0 Serbia | 8.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.53 goals in total (1.53 for Germany, 1.00 for Serbia): over 2.5 goals has a 46% probability and both teams to score 50%. Germany keep a clean sheet in 37% of scenarios, Serbia in 22%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Germany expected goals | 1.53 |
| Serbia expected goals | 1.00 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% |
| Germany clean sheet | 37% |
| Serbia clean sheet | 22% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Germany
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Greece · UEFA Nations League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Netherlands · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Paraguay · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Ecuador · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Ivory Coast · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
Serbia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Netherlands · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Greece · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Mexico · International Friendlies | 1-5 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Cape Verde · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Saudi Arabia · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Serbia | 4 | 0 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2019 | Germany 1-1 Serbia | International Friendlies |
| Jun 18, 2010 | Germany 0-1 Serbia | FIFA World Cup |
Out and doubtful
Germany
No absences reported.
Serbia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Germany
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Nmecha5/5
- J. Kimmich5/5
- J. Tah5/5
- K. Havertz4/5
- N. Brown4/5
- A. Pavlovic3/5
- F. Wirtz3/5
- L. Sane3/5
- M. Neuer3/5
- A. Rudiger2/5
- J. Musiala2/5
Serbia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Stankovic3/5
- S. Erakovic3/5
- A. Živković2/5
- F. Stankovic2/5
- S. Milinković-Savić2/5
- S. Pavlovic2/5
- S. Pavlović2/5
- V. Birmancevic2/5
- V. Milinković-Savić2/5
- A. Avdic1/5
- A. Stanković1/5
Other matches in this competition
- Azerbaijan 0-0 LiechtensteinOct 1, 2026
- Denmark 2-4 PortugalOct 1, 2026
- Malta 1-1 GibraltarOct 1, 2026
- Israel 0-0 KosovoOct 1, 2026
- Greece 2-2 NetherlandsOct 1, 2026
- Ireland 2-2 AustriaOct 1, 2026
- Wales 2-1 NorwayOct 1, 2026
- Kazakhstan 1-2 MoldovaOct 2, 2026
- Cyprus 2-0 ArmeniaOct 2, 2026
- Latvia 1-2 MontenegroOct 2, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Germany vs Serbia prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Germany a 49% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Serbia 25%. Germany are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Germany vs Serbia?
1-0 (12.2%), followed by 1-1 (12.2%), 2-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.3%) and 0-0 (8.0%).
Will both teams score in Germany vs Serbia?
The probability that both Germany and Serbia score is 50%. Germany have a 37% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Serbia 22%.
How many goals should we expect in Germany vs Serbia?
The model expects 2.53 goals (1.53 for Germany, 1.00 for Serbia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 46%, over 3.5 goals 25%.
When and where is Germany vs Serbia played?
Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich.
What form are Germany and Serbia in?
Germany: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 6 conceded). Serbia: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 13 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Germany and Serbia?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Germany, 1 for Serbia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Germany 1-1 Serbia (Mar 20, 2019).
What was the Germany vs Serbia result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Germany 2-0 Serbia. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Germany was the model's favourite outcome (49%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.3%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): correct.
How is the Germany vs Serbia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.53 for Germany, 1.00 for Serbia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Germany predictions
- All Serbia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology