UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 1, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Germany vs Serbia prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Germany take on Serbia on Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. With a 78% win probability, Germany go in as strong favourites against Serbia (8%), with the draw rated at 14%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (10.2%), ahead of 3-0 (9.6%) and 2-1 (8.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Germany have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 6. Serbia have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 14. Recent momentum is clearly with Germany. On average Germany score 2.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Serbia score 0.80 and concede 2.80. In the table, Germany sit 2nd with 1 points from 1 games, Serbia 4th with 0 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Germany, 1 for Serbia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Germany 1-1 Serbia (Mar 20, 2019). In double chance terms, "Germany or draw" stands at 92%, "Serbia or draw" at 22% and "no draw" at 86%.
In short : Germany are favourites for this Germany v Serbia, with a 78% win probability from our model. In the table, Germany (2nd, 1 pts) host Serbia (4th, 0 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Germany – Serbia. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (10.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Germany 2-0 Serbia | 10.2% |
| Germany 3-0 Serbia | 9.6% |
| Germany 2-1 Serbia | 8.6% |
| Germany 3-1 Serbia | 8.1% |
| Germany 1-0 Serbia | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.66 goals in total (2.82 for Germany, 0.84 for Serbia): over 2.5 goals has a 71% probability and both teams to score 53%. Everything points to an open game. Germany keep a clean sheet in 43% of scenarios, Serbia in 6%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Germany expected goals | 2.82 |
| Serbia expected goals | 0.84 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% |
| Germany clean sheet | 43% |
| Serbia clean sheet | 6% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Germany
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 2026 | Paraguay · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Ecuador · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Ivory Coast · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Curaçao · FIFA World Cup | 7-1 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | United States · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Serbia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Greece · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Mexico · International Friendlies | 1-5 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Cape Verde · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Saudi Arabia · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Spain · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Serbia | 4 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2019 | Germany 1-1 Serbia | International Friendlies |
| Jun 18, 2010 | Germany 0-1 Serbia | FIFA World Cup |
Out and doubtful
Germany
No absences reported.
Serbia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Germany
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Pavlovic5/5
- F. Nmecha5/5
- F. Wirtz5/5
- J. Kimmich5/5
- J. Tah5/5
- K. Havertz5/5
- L. Sane5/5
- J. Musiala4/5
- M. Neuer4/5
- N. Brown4/5
- N. Schlotterbeck3/5
Serbia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Stankovic4/5
- S. Erakovic3/5
- S. Pavlovic3/5
- V. Birmancevic3/5
- A. Terzic2/5
- F. Stankovic2/5
- N. Milenkovic2/5
- S. Milinkovic-Savic2/5
- A. Avdic1/5
- A. Mitrovic1/5
- A. Zivkovic1/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Germany vs Serbia prediction?
Our AI gives Germany a 78% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Serbia 8%. Germany are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Germany vs Serbia?
2-0 (10.2%), followed by 3-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (8.6%), 3-1 (8.1%) and 1-0 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Germany vs Serbia?
The probability that both Germany and Serbia score is 53%. Germany have a 43% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Serbia 6%.
How many goals should we expect in Germany vs Serbia?
The model expects 3.66 goals (2.82 for Germany, 0.84 for Serbia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 88%, over 2.5 goals 71%, over 3.5 goals 50%.
When and where is Germany vs Serbia played?
Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Germany and Serbia in?
Germany: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 6 conceded). Serbia: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 14 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Germany and Serbia?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Germany, 1 for Serbia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Germany 1-1 Serbia (Mar 20, 2019).
How is the Germany vs Serbia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.82 for Germany, 0.84 for Serbia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Germany predictions
- All Serbia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology