UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, October 2, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Kazakhstan vs Moldova prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: Kazakhstan vs Moldova kicks off on Friday, October 2, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time). The edge goes to Kazakhstan (55%), ahead of the draw (24%) and a Moldova win (21%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.7%), ahead of 1-1 (11.4%) and 2-0 (10.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Kazakhstan have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 5. Moldova have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 12. Recent momentum is clearly with Kazakhstan. On average Kazakhstan score 1.00 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Moldova score 1.20 and concede 2.40.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Kazakhstan and Moldova: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Kazakhstan or draw" stands at 79%, "Moldova or draw" at 45% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Our model backs Kazakhstan to edge Moldova (55% probability). On recent form, Kazakhstan have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Moldova have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 51%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Kazakhstan – Moldova. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Kazakhstan 1-0 Moldova | 11.7% |
| Kazakhstan 1-1 Moldova | 11.4% |
| Kazakhstan 2-0 Moldova | 10.0% |
| Kazakhstan 2-1 Moldova | 9.7% |
| Kazakhstan 0-0 Moldova | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.68 goals in total (1.71 for Kazakhstan, 0.97 for Moldova): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 51%. Kazakhstan keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Moldova in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Kazakhstan expected goals | 1.71 |
| Moldova expected goals | 0.97 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Kazakhstan clean sheet | 38% |
| Moldova clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Kazakhstan
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Hungary · International Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Armenia · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Comoros · FIFA Series | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Namibia · FIFA Series | 2-0 | W |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Faroe Islands · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
Moldova
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Armenia · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bulgaria · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Cyprus · International Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Lithuania · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Israel · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Moldova | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Kazakhstan and Moldova: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Kazakhstan
No absences reported.
Moldova
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Kazakhstan
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Kenzhebek4/5
- I. Kuat4/5
- M. Samorodov4/5
- N. Alip4/5
- R. Orazov4/5
- Y. Vorogovskiy4/5
- A. Kasym3/5
- T. Anarbekov3/5
- A. Ashirbek2/5
- A. Mrynskiy2/5
- D. Satpaev2/5
Moldova
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Gherasimencov5/5
- V. Baboglo5/5
- D. Forov4/5
- I. Revenco4/5
- C. Cucos3/5
- P. Popescu3/5
- S. Perciun3/5
- V. Postolachi3/5
- D. Celeadnic2/5
- D. Puscas2/5
- E. Timbur2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Cyprus – ArmeniaOct 2, 2026
- Latvia – MontenegroOct 2, 2026
- Belgium – TürkiyeOct 2, 2026
- Faroe Islands – SlovakiaOct 2, 2026
- Ukraine – Northern IrelandOct 2, 2026
- Bosnia & Herzegovina – SwedenOct 2, 2026
- France – ItalyOct 2, 2026
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Kazakhstan vs Moldova prediction?
Our AI gives Kazakhstan a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Moldova 21%. Kazakhstan are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Kazakhstan vs Moldova?
1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Kazakhstan vs Moldova?
The probability that both Kazakhstan and Moldova score is 51%. Kazakhstan have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Moldova 18%.
How many goals should we expect in Kazakhstan vs Moldova?
The model expects 2.68 goals (1.71 for Kazakhstan, 0.97 for Moldova). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Kazakhstan vs Moldova played?
Friday, October 2, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Kazakhstan and Moldova in?
Kazakhstan: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 5 conceded). Moldova: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 12 conceded).
How is the Kazakhstan vs Moldova prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.71 for Kazakhstan, 0.97 for Moldova) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Kazakhstan predictions
- All Moldova predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology