UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, October 2, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Kazakhstan vs Moldova: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Kazakhstan 1-2 Moldova. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Kazakhstan (58%), while victory for Moldova was rated at only 17%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.2%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (41%): missed.
Match analysis
Kazakhstan vs Moldova was played on Friday, October 2, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Astana Arena, Astana. Before kick-off, our model gave Kazakhstan a 58% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Moldova 17%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (15.6%), ahead of 2-0 (12.4%) and 1-1 (11.4%).
Kazakhstan have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 7. Moldova have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 9. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Kazakhstan score 1.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Moldova score 1.20 and concede 1.80. In the table, Kazakhstan sit 3rd with 1 points from 2 games, Moldova 4th with 1 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Kazakhstan, 1 for Moldova and 0 draws. The most recent ended Kazakhstan 0-1 Moldova (Mar 29, 2022). In double chance terms, "Kazakhstan or draw" stands at 83%, "Moldova or draw" at 42% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Our model backs Kazakhstan to edge Moldova (58% probability). On recent form, Kazakhstan have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Moldova have 0 win, 3 draws and 2 losses in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Kazakhstan – Moldova. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (15.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 58% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Kazakhstan 1-0 Moldova | 15.6% |
| Kazakhstan 2-0 Moldova | 12.4% |
| Kazakhstan 1-1 Moldova | 11.4% |
| Kazakhstan 0-0 Moldova | 9.8% |
| Kazakhstan 2-1 Moldova | 9.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.32 goals in total (1.59 for Kazakhstan, 0.73 for Moldova): over 2.5 goals has a 41% probability and both teams to score 41%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Kazakhstan keep a clean sheet in 48% of scenarios, Moldova in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Kazakhstan expected goals | 1.59 |
| Moldova expected goals | 0.73 |
| Both teams to score | 41% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% |
| Kazakhstan clean sheet | 48% |
| Moldova clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Kazakhstan
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Slovakia · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Faroe Islands · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Hungary · International Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Armenia · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Comoros · FIFA Series | 1-0 | W |
Moldova
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Faroe Islands · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Slovakia · UEFA Nations League | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Armenia · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bulgaria · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Cyprus · International Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kazakhstan | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Moldova | 4 | 1 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2022 | Kazakhstan 0-1 Moldova | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 24, 2022 | Moldova 1-2 Kazakhstan | UEFA Nations League |
| Feb 21, 2019 | Kazakhstan 1-0 Moldova | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Kazakhstan
No absences reported.
Moldova
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Kazakhstan
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- I. Kuat5/5
- N. Alip5/5
- G. Kenzhebek4/5
- Y. Vorogovskiy4/5
- A. Ashirbek3/5
- D. Karaman3/5
- M. Samorodov3/5
- R. Orazov3/5
- Z. Amir3/5
- A. Kasym2/5
- A. Mrynskiy2/5
Moldova
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Gherasimencov5/5
- V. Baboglo5/5
- D. Celeadnic4/5
- D. Forov4/5
- I. Revenco3/5
- C. Cucos2/5
- I. Iovu2/5
- O. Reabciuk2/5
- P. Popescu2/5
- Petru Popescu2/5
- S. Bodisteanu2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Denmark 2-4 PortugalOct 1, 2026
- Malta 1-1 GibraltarOct 1, 2026
- Cyprus 2-0 ArmeniaOct 2, 2026
- Latvia 1-2 MontenegroOct 2, 2026
- Belgium 3-0 TürkiyeOct 2, 2026
- Faroe Islands 1-1 SlovakiaOct 2, 2026
- Ukraine 0-3 Northern IrelandOct 2, 2026
- Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-1 SwedenOct 2, 2026
- France 1-1 ItalyOct 2, 2026
- Hungary 1-0 GeorgiaOct 2, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Kazakhstan vs Moldova prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Kazakhstan a 58% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Moldova 17%. Kazakhstan are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Kazakhstan vs Moldova?
1-0 (15.6%), followed by 2-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (9.8%) and 2-1 (9.1%).
Will both teams score in Kazakhstan vs Moldova?
The probability that both Kazakhstan and Moldova score is 41%. Kazakhstan have a 48% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Moldova 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Kazakhstan vs Moldova?
The model expects 2.32 goals (1.59 for Kazakhstan, 0.73 for Moldova). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 67%, over 2.5 goals 41%, over 3.5 goals 21%.
When and where is Kazakhstan vs Moldova played?
Friday, October 2, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Astana Arena, Astana.
What form are Kazakhstan and Moldova in?
Kazakhstan: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded). Moldova: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Kazakhstan and Moldova?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Kazakhstan, 1 for Moldova and 0 draws. The most recent ended Kazakhstan 0-1 Moldova (Mar 29, 2022).
What was the Kazakhstan vs Moldova result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Kazakhstan 1-2 Moldova. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Kazakhstan (58%), while victory for Moldova was rated at only 17%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.2%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (41%): missed.
How is the Kazakhstan vs Moldova prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.59 for Kazakhstan, 0.73 for Moldova) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Kazakhstan predictions
- All Moldova predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology