UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, October 2, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
France vs Italy prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the France vs Italy match is scheduled on Friday, October 2, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). With a 70% win probability, France go in as strong favourites against Italy (13%), with the draw rated at 17%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (9.3%), ahead of 2-0 (9.0%) and 3-1 (7.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, France have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Italy have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average France score 2.00 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Italy score 1.20 and concede 1.00.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for France, 2 for Italy and 0 draws. The most recent ended Italy 1-3 France (Nov 17, 2024). In double chance terms, "France or draw" stands at 87%, "Italy or draw" at 30% and "no draw" at 83%.
In short : Our model backs France to edge Italy (70% probability). On recent form, France have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Italy have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 70%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as France – Italy. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 41% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| France 2-1 Italy | 9.3% |
| France 2-0 Italy | 9.0% |
| France 3-1 Italy | 7.9% |
| France 3-0 Italy | 7.6% |
| France 1-1 Italy | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.59 goals in total (2.55 for France, 1.04 for Italy): over 2.5 goals has a 70% probability and both teams to score 60%. Everything points to an open game. France keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Italy in 8%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| France expected goals | 2.55 |
| Italy expected goals | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | 60% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% |
| France clean sheet | 35% |
| Italy clean sheet | 8% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
France
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | England · FIFA World Cup | 4-6 | L |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Spain · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Morocco · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Paraguay · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Sweden · FIFA World Cup | 3-0 | W |
Italy
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Greece · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Luxembourg · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Northern Ireland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-0 | W |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Norway · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Italy | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | Italy 1-3 France | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 6, 2024 | France 1-3 Italy | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 1, 2018 | France 3-1 Italy | International Friendlies |
| Jun 17, 2008 | France 0-2 Italy | Euro Championship |
Out and doubtful
France
No absences reported.
Italy
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
France
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Rabiot4/5
- D. Upamecano4/5
- J. Kounde4/5
- K. Mbappe4/5
- L. Digne4/5
- M. Maignan4/5
- M. Olise4/5
- O. Dembele4/5
- W. Saliba4/5
- B. Barcola3/5
- A. Tchouameni2/5
Italy
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Donnarumma5/5
- A. Bastoni3/5
- F. Dimarco3/5
- F. Esposito3/5
- G. Mancini3/5
- M. Locatelli3/5
- M. Politano3/5
- M. Retegui3/5
- N. Barella3/5
- C. Ndour2/5
- D. Bartesaghi2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the France vs Italy prediction?
Our AI gives France a 70% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Italy 13%. France are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for France vs Italy?
2-1 (9.3%), followed by 2-0 (9.0%), 3-1 (7.9%), 3-0 (7.6%) and 1-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in France vs Italy?
The probability that both France and Italy score is 60%. France have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Italy 8%.
How many goals should we expect in France vs Italy?
The model expects 3.59 goals (2.55 for France, 1.04 for Italy). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 87%, over 2.5 goals 70%, over 3.5 goals 48%.
When and where is France vs Italy played?
Friday, October 2, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are France and Italy in?
France: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 8 conceded). Italy: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between France and Italy?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for France, 2 for Italy and 0 draws. The most recent ended Italy 1-3 France (Nov 17, 2024).
How is the France vs Italy prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.55 for France, 1.04 for Italy) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All France predictions
- All Italy predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology