UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, October 2, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
France vs Italy: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: France 1-1 Italy. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for France (83%), while a draw was rated at only 11%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.7%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (54%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (77%): missed.
Match analysis
France vs Italy was played on Friday, October 2, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Stade de France, Paris. Before kick-off, our model gave France a 83% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Italy 6%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (9.8%), ahead of 2-0 (9.2%) and 3-1 (8.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, France have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Italy have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average France score 1.60 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Italy score 1.40 and concede 0.80. In the table, France sit 1st with 6 points from 2 games, Italy 3rd with 3 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for France, 2 for Italy and 0 draws. The most recent ended Italy 1-3 France (Nov 17, 2024). In double chance terms, "France or draw" stands at 94%, "Italy or draw" at 17% and "no draw" at 89%.
In short : Our model backs France to edge Italy (83% probability). In the table, France (1st, 6 pts) host Italy (3rd, 3 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 77%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as France – Italy. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (9.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 42% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| France 3-0 Italy | 9.8% |
| France 2-0 Italy | 9.2% |
| France 3-1 Italy | 8.0% |
| France 4-0 Italy | 7.8% |
| France 2-1 Italy | 7.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.02 goals in total (3.20 for France, 0.82 for Italy): over 2.5 goals has a 77% probability and both teams to score 54%. Everything points to an open game. France keep a clean sheet in 44% of scenarios, Italy in 4%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| France expected goals | 3.20 |
| Italy expected goals | 0.82 |
| Both teams to score | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 57% |
| France clean sheet | 44% |
| Italy clean sheet | 4% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
France
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Belgium · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Türkiye · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 18, 2026 | England · FIFA World Cup | 4-6 | L |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Spain · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Morocco · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
Italy
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Türkiye · UEFA Nations League | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Belgium · UEFA Nations League | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Greece · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Luxembourg · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 1 | 6 | 2 |
| Italy | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | Italy 1-3 France | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 6, 2024 | France 1-3 Italy | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 1, 2018 | France 3-1 Italy | International Friendlies |
| Jun 17, 2008 | France 0-2 Italy | Euro Championship |
Out and doubtful
France
No absences reported.
Italy
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
France
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Maignan5/5
- A. Rabiot4/5
- M. Olise4/5
- D. Upamecano3/5
- K. Mbappe3/5
- M. Lacroix3/5
- B. Barcola2/5
- D. Doue2/5
- J. Kounde2/5
- L. Digne2/5
- O. Dembele2/5
Italy
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Donnarumma4/5
- F. Esposito3/5
- S. Tonali3/5
- A. Bastoni2/5
- G. Mancini2/5
- M. Kean2/5
- N. Barella2/5
- R. Calafiori2/5
- A. Romano1/5
- C. Favasuli1/5
- C. Ndour1/5
Other matches in this competition
- Kazakhstan 1-2 MoldovaOct 2, 2026
- Cyprus 2-0 ArmeniaOct 2, 2026
- Latvia 1-2 MontenegroOct 2, 2026
- Belgium 3-0 TürkiyeOct 2, 2026
- Faroe Islands 1-1 SlovakiaOct 2, 2026
- Ukraine 0-3 Northern IrelandOct 2, 2026
- Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-1 SwedenOct 2, 2026
- Finland 2-1 AlbaniaOct 3, 2026
- Croatia 0-7 EnglandOct 3, 2026
- Estonia 1-0 LuxembourgOct 3, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the France vs Italy prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave France a 83% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Italy 6%. France are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for France vs Italy?
3-0 (9.8%), followed by 2-0 (9.2%), 3-1 (8.0%), 4-0 (7.8%) and 2-1 (7.5%).
Will both teams score in France vs Italy?
The probability that both France and Italy score is 54%. France have a 44% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Italy 4%.
How many goals should we expect in France vs Italy?
The model expects 4.02 goals (3.20 for France, 0.82 for Italy). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 91%, over 2.5 goals 77%, over 3.5 goals 57%.
When and where is France vs Italy played?
Friday, October 2, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Stade de France, Paris.
What form are France and Italy in?
France: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded). Italy: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between France and Italy?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for France, 2 for Italy and 0 draws. The most recent ended Italy 1-3 France (Nov 17, 2024).
What was the France vs Italy result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: France 1-1 Italy. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for France (83%), while a draw was rated at only 11%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.7%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (54%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (77%): missed.
How is the France vs Italy prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.20 for France, 0.82 for Italy) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All France predictions
- All Italy predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology