UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, October 2, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Ukraine vs Northern Ireland: 0-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Ukraine 0-3 Northern Ireland. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Ukraine (51%), while victory for Northern Ireland was rated at only 21%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.9%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (36%): missed.
Match analysis
Ukraine and Northern Ireland met on Friday, October 2, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Štadión Antona Malatinského, Trnava. Before kick-off, our model gave Ukraine a 51% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Northern Ireland 21%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (16.3%), followed by 1-1 (12.4%) and 0-0 (12.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Ukraine have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 5 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, Northern Ireland have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Ukraine score 1.00 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Northern Ireland score 0.80 and concede 0.80. In the table, Ukraine sit 1st with 4 points from 2 games, Northern Ireland 2nd with 4 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Ukraine, 1 for Northern Ireland and 0 draws. The most recent ended Ukraine 1-0 Northern Ireland (Jun 3, 2021). In double chance terms, "Ukraine or draw" stands at 79%, "Northern Ireland or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : Our model backs Ukraine to edge Northern Ireland (51% probability). In the table, Ukraine (1st, 4 pts) host Northern Ireland (2nd, 4 pts). The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Ukraine – Northern Ireland. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (16.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 61% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ukraine 1-0 Northern Ireland | 16.3% |
| Ukraine 1-1 Northern Ireland | 12.4% |
| Ukraine 0-0 Northern Ireland | 12.0% |
| Ukraine 2-0 Northern Ireland | 11.1% |
| Ukraine 0-1 Northern Ireland | 9.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.36 expected goals for Ukraine and 0.76 for Northern Ireland, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 36% and "both teams to score" at 40%. Few goals are expected here. Ukraine keep a clean sheet in 47% of scenarios, Northern Ireland in 26%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Ukraine expected goals | 1.36 |
| Northern Ireland expected goals | 0.76 |
| Both teams to score | 40% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% |
| Ukraine clean sheet | 47% |
| Northern Ireland clean sheet | 26% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Ukraine
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Georgia · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Hungary · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Denmark · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Poland · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Albania · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
Northern Ireland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Hungary · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Georgia · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 8, 2026 | France · International Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Guinea · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Wales · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| Northern Ireland | 2 | 4 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2021 | Ukraine 1-0 Northern Ireland | International Friendlies |
| Jun 16, 2016 | Ukraine 0-2 Northern Ireland | Euro Championship |
Out and doubtful
Ukraine
No absences reported.
Northern Ireland
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Ukraine
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Sarapiy4/5
- A. Trubin3/5
- I. Zabarnyi3/5
- O. Ocheretko3/5
- R. Yaremchuk3/5
- V. Mykolenko3/5
- V. Tsygankov3/5
- D. Riznyk2/5
- G. Sudakov2/5
- M. Matviienko2/5
- R. Malinovskyi2/5
Northern Ireland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Brown3/5
- E. Galbraith3/5
- I. Price3/5
- J. Devenny3/5
- J. Donley3/5
- Patrick Kelly3/5
- Ruairi McConville3/5
- S. Charles3/5
- T. Hume3/5
- Tom Atcheson3/5
- Ciaron Brown2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Kazakhstan 1-2 MoldovaOct 2, 2026
- Cyprus 2-0 ArmeniaOct 2, 2026
- Latvia 1-2 MontenegroOct 2, 2026
- Belgium 3-0 TürkiyeOct 2, 2026
- Faroe Islands 1-1 SlovakiaOct 2, 2026
- Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-1 SwedenOct 2, 2026
- France 1-1 ItalyOct 2, 2026
- Finland 2-1 AlbaniaOct 3, 2026
- Croatia 0-7 EnglandOct 3, 2026
- Estonia 1-0 LuxembourgOct 3, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Ukraine vs Northern Ireland prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Ukraine a 51% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Northern Ireland 21%. Ukraine are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?
1-0 (16.3%), followed by 1-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.1%) and 0-1 (9.1%).
Will both teams score in Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?
The probability that both Ukraine and Northern Ireland score is 40%. Ukraine have a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Northern Ireland 26%.
How many goals should we expect in Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?
The model expects 2.12 goals (1.36 for Ukraine, 0.76 for Northern Ireland). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 63%, over 2.5 goals 36%, over 3.5 goals 17%.
When and where is Ukraine vs Northern Ireland played?
Friday, October 2, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Štadión Antona Malatinského, Trnava.
What form are Ukraine and Northern Ireland in?
Ukraine: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 2 conceded). Northern Ireland: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Ukraine and Northern Ireland?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Ukraine, 1 for Northern Ireland and 0 draws. The most recent ended Ukraine 1-0 Northern Ireland (Jun 3, 2021).
What was the Ukraine vs Northern Ireland result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Ukraine 0-3 Northern Ireland. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Ukraine (51%), while victory for Northern Ireland was rated at only 21%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.9%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (36%): missed.
How is the Ukraine vs Northern Ireland prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.36 for Ukraine, 0.76 for Northern Ireland) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Ukraine predictions
- All Northern Ireland predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology