UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, October 2, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Ukraine vs Northern Ireland prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: Ukraine vs Northern Ireland kicks off on Friday, October 2, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). It is a tight call: 36% for Ukraine, 26% for the draw and 38% for Northern Ireland. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.6%), followed by 0-1 (9.9%) and 1-0 (9.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Ukraine have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Northern Ireland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Ukraine score 1.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Northern Ireland score 0.80 and concede 1.20.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ukraine and Northern Ireland: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Ukraine or draw" stands at 62%, "Northern Ireland or draw" at 64% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : An evenly-matched game between Ukraine and Northern Ireland: our model sees no clear favourite. On recent form, Ukraine have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Northern Ireland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 53%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Ukraine – Northern Ireland. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ukraine 1-1 Northern Ireland | 12.6% |
| Ukraine 0-1 Northern Ireland | 9.9% |
| Ukraine 1-0 Northern Ireland | 9.6% |
| Ukraine 1-2 Northern Ireland | 8.3% |
| Ukraine 2-1 Northern Ireland | 8.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.27 expected goals for Ukraine and 1.31 for Northern Ireland, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 53%. Ukraine keep a clean sheet in 27% of scenarios, Northern Ireland in 28%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Ukraine expected goals | 1.27 |
| Northern Ireland expected goals | 1.31 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| Ukraine clean sheet | 27% |
| Northern Ireland clean sheet | 28% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Ukraine
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Denmark · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Poland · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Albania · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Sweden · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-3 | L |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Iceland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-0 | W |
Northern Ireland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | France · International Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Guinea · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Wales · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Italy · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-2 | L |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Luxembourg · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Northern Ireland | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ukraine and Northern Ireland: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Ukraine
No absences reported.
Northern Ireland
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Ukraine
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Trubin4/5
- I. Zabarnyi4/5
- V. Mykolenko4/5
- V. Tsygankov4/5
- E. Sarapiy3/5
- G. Sudakov3/5
- M. Matviienko3/5
- R. Malinovskyi3/5
- R. Yaremchuk3/5
- Y. Yarmolyuk3/5
- I. Kaliuzhnyi2/5
Northern Ireland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Galbraith3/5
- I. Price3/5
- J. Donley3/5
- C. Brown2/5
- C. Hazard2/5
- Ciaron Brown2/5
- Isaac Price2/5
- J. Devenny2/5
- Jamie Donley2/5
- Justin Devenny2/5
- P. McNair2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Latvia – MontenegroOct 2, 2026
- Belgium – TürkiyeOct 2, 2026
- Faroe Islands – SlovakiaOct 2, 2026
- Bosnia & Herzegovina – SwedenOct 2, 2026
- France – ItalyOct 2, 2026
- Finland – AlbaniaOct 3, 2026
- Croatia – EnglandOct 3, 2026
- Estonia – LuxembourgOct 3, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Ukraine vs Northern Ireland prediction?
Our AI gives Ukraine a 36% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Northern Ireland 38%. Northern Ireland are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?
1-1 (12.6%), followed by 0-1 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.6%), 1-2 (8.3%) and 2-1 (8.0%).
Will both teams score in Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?
The probability that both Ukraine and Northern Ireland score is 53%. Ukraine have a 27% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Northern Ireland 28%.
How many goals should we expect in Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?
The model expects 2.58 goals (1.27 for Ukraine, 1.31 for Northern Ireland). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is Ukraine vs Northern Ireland played?
Friday, October 2, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Ukraine and Northern Ireland in?
Ukraine: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded). Northern Ireland: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded).
How is the Ukraine vs Northern Ireland prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.27 for Ukraine, 1.31 for Northern Ireland) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Ukraine predictions
- All Northern Ireland predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology