UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 1, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Wales vs Norway prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: Wales vs Norway kicks off on Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). Our model makes Norway clear favourites: a 68% chance of winning, against 18% for the draw and 14% for Wales. On the correct score, 0-2 comes out on top (10.7%), followed by 1-2 (9.8%) and 0-1 (9.4%).
Wales have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Norway have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Norway therefore arrive in far better shape than Wales. On average Wales score 0.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Norway score 1.80 and concede 2.00. In the table, Wales sit 4th with 0 points from 1 games, Norway 1st with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Wales have averaged 1.52 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.36 for Norway.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Wales and Norway: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Wales or draw" stands at 32%, "Norway or draw" at 86% and "no draw" at 82%.
In short : Norway are favourites for this Wales v Norway, with a 68% win probability from our model. On recent form, Wales have 0 win, 3 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Norway have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Wales – Norway. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (10.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 47% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wales 0-2 Norway | 10.7% |
| Wales 1-2 Norway | 9.8% |
| Wales 0-1 Norway | 9.4% |
| Wales 1-1 Norway | 8.6% |
| Wales 0-3 Norway | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.91 expected goals for Wales and 2.27 for Norway, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 62% and "both teams to score" at 54%. Goals look likely in this one. Wales keep a clean sheet in 10% of scenarios, Norway in 40%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Wales expected goals | 0.91 |
| Norway expected goals | 2.27 |
| Both teams to score | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% |
| Wales clean sheet | 10% |
| Norway clean sheet | 40% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Wales
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Portugal · UEFA Nations League | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Romania · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Ghana · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Northern Ireland · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 | D |
Norway
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Denmark · UEFA Nations League | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 11, 2026 | England · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Brazil · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Ivory Coast · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 26, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 1-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wales | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Norway | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Wales and Norway: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Wales
No absences reported.
Norway
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Wales
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- N. Williams5/5
- D. Brooks4/5
- E. Ampadu4/5
- J. Dasilva4/5
- J. Rodon4/5
- J. Sheehan4/5
- B. Johnson3/5
- D. James3/5
- K. Darlow3/5
- B. Cabango2/5
- D. Lawlor2/5
Norway
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- P. Berg5/5
- E. Haaland4/5
- K. Ajer4/5
- S. Berge4/5
- T. Heggem4/5
- A. Nusa3/5
- A. Sorloth3/5
- D. Wolfe3/5
- J. Ryerson3/5
- M. Odegaard3/5
- O. Nyland3/5
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Wales vs Norway prediction?
Our AI gives Wales a 14% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Norway 68%. Norway are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Wales vs Norway?
0-2 (10.7%), followed by 1-2 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.6%) and 0-3 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Wales vs Norway?
The probability that both Wales and Norway score is 54%. Wales have a 10% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Norway 40%.
How many goals should we expect in Wales vs Norway?
The model expects 3.18 goals (0.91 for Wales, 2.27 for Norway). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 83%, over 2.5 goals 62%, over 3.5 goals 39%.
When and where is Wales vs Norway played?
Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Wales and Norway in?
Wales: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded). Norway: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 10 conceded).
How is the Wales vs Norway prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.91 for Wales, 2.27 for Norway) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Wales predictions
- All Norway predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology