UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Thursday, October 1, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Wales vs Norway: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Wales 2-1 Norway. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Norway (50%), while victory for Wales was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (6.5%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (55%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): correct.
Match analysis
Wales and Norway met on Thursday, October 1, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff. Before kick-off, our model gave Wales a 26% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Norway 50%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.4%), followed by 0-1 (10.1%) and 1-2 (9.6%).
Wales have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Norway have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Norway therefore arrive in far better shape than Wales. On average Wales score 0.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Norway score 1.80 and concede 1.60. In the table, Wales sit 4th with 0 points from 2 games, Norway 2nd with 3 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Wales have averaged 1.52 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.25 for Norway.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Wales and Norway: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Wales or draw" stands at 50%, "Norway or draw" at 74% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Norway are favourites for this Wales v Norway, with a 50% win probability from our model. On recent form, Wales have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5 while Norway have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Wales – Norway. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 46% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wales 1-1 Norway | 11.4% |
| Wales 0-1 Norway | 10.1% |
| Wales 1-2 Norway | 9.6% |
| Wales 0-2 Norway | 8.5% |
| Wales 1-0 Norway | 6.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.13 expected goals for Wales and 1.68 for Norway, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 53% and "both teams to score" at 55%. Wales keep a clean sheet in 19% of scenarios, Norway in 32%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Wales expected goals | 1.13 |
| Norway expected goals | 1.68 |
| Both teams to score | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% |
| Wales clean sheet | 19% |
| Norway clean sheet | 32% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Wales
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Denmark · UEFA Nations League | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Portugal · UEFA Nations League | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Romania · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Ghana · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Northern Ireland · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Norway
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Portugal · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Denmark · UEFA Nations League | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 11, 2026 | England · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Brazil · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Ivory Coast · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wales | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| Norway | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Wales and Norway: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Wales
No absences reported.
Norway
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Wales
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- N. Williams5/5
- E. Ampadu4/5
- J. Sheehan4/5
- B. Johnson3/5
- D. Brooks3/5
- D. James3/5
- D. Ward3/5
- J. Dasilva3/5
- J. Rodon3/5
- K. Moore3/5
- S. Thomas3/5
Norway
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Haaland5/5
- K. Ajer5/5
- P. Berg5/5
- S. Berge5/5
- T. Heggem5/5
- A. Nusa4/5
- J. Ryerson4/5
- A. Sorloth3/5
- D. Wolfe3/5
- M. Odegaard3/5
- O. Nyland3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Azerbaijan 0-0 LiechtensteinOct 1, 2026
- Denmark 2-4 PortugalOct 1, 2026
- Malta 1-1 GibraltarOct 1, 2026
- Israel 0-0 KosovoOct 1, 2026
- Greece 2-2 NetherlandsOct 1, 2026
- Ireland 2-2 AustriaOct 1, 2026
- Germany 2-0 SerbiaOct 1, 2026
- Kazakhstan 1-2 MoldovaOct 2, 2026
- Cyprus 2-0 ArmeniaOct 2, 2026
- Latvia 1-2 MontenegroOct 2, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Wales vs Norway prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Wales a 26% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Norway 50%. Norway are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Wales vs Norway?
1-1 (11.4%), followed by 0-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.5%) and 1-0 (6.8%).
Will both teams score in Wales vs Norway?
The probability that both Wales and Norway score is 55%. Wales have a 19% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Norway 32%.
How many goals should we expect in Wales vs Norway?
The model expects 2.81 goals (1.13 for Wales, 1.68 for Norway). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 53%, over 3.5 goals 31%.
When and where is Wales vs Norway played?
Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff.
What form are Wales and Norway in?
Wales: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 7 conceded). Norway: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 8 conceded).
What was the Wales vs Norway result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Wales 2-1 Norway. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Norway (50%), while victory for Wales was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (6.5%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (55%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): correct.
How is the Wales vs Norway prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.13 for Wales, 1.68 for Norway) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Wales predictions
- All Norway predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology