UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, October 2, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Poland vs Romania: 6-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Poland 6-0 Romania. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Poland at 62%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (45%): missed.
Match analysis
Poland and Romania met on Friday, October 2, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: National Stadium Warsaw, Warsaw. Before kick-off, our model gave Poland a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Romania 15%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (14.8%), followed by 2-0 (13.0%) and 1-1 (10.7%).
Poland have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 10. Romania have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 10. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Poland score 1.00 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Romania score 1.20 and concede 2.00. In the table, Poland sit 3rd with 1 points from 2 games, Romania 4th with 0 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Poland, 0 for Romania and 0 draws. The most recent ended Poland 3-1 Romania (Jun 10, 2017). In double chance terms, "Poland or draw" stands at 85%, "Romania or draw" at 38% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Poland are favourites for this Poland v Romania, with a 62% win probability from our model. On recent form, Poland have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5 while Romania have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Poland – Romania. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 56% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Poland 1-0 Romania | 14.8% |
| Poland 2-0 Romania | 13.0% |
| Poland 1-1 Romania | 10.7% |
| Poland 2-1 Romania | 9.3% |
| Poland 0-0 Romania | 8.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.75 expected goals for Poland and 0.72 for Romania, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 45% and "both teams to score" at 42%. Poland keep a clean sheet in 49% of scenarios, Romania in 17%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Poland expected goals | 1.75 |
| Romania expected goals | 0.72 |
| Both teams to score | 42% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% |
| Poland clean sheet | 49% |
| Romania clean sheet | 17% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Poland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Sweden · UEFA Nations League | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Nigeria · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| May 31, 2026 | Ukraine · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sweden · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-3 | L |
Romania
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · UEFA Nations League | 2-4 | L |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Sweden · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Wales · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Georgia · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Slovakia · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Romania | 4 | 0 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2017 | Poland 3-1 Romania | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 11, 2016 | Romania 0-3 Poland | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
Out and doubtful
Poland
No absences reported.
Romania
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Poland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Bednarek4/5
- J. Kiwior4/5
- N. Zalewski4/5
- R. Lewandowski4/5
- M. Cash3/5
- P. Wisniewski3/5
- P. Zielinski3/5
- S. Szymanski3/5
- B. Slisz2/5
- J. Kaminski2/5
- K. Grabara2/5
Romania
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- I. Radu3/5
- N. Stanciu3/5
- V. Dragomir3/5
- A. Coubiș2/5
- D. Man2/5
- D. Olaru2/5
- I. Hagi2/5
- L. Eissat2/5
- L. Munteanu2/5
- M. Ilie2/5
- N. Bancu2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Kazakhstan 1-2 MoldovaOct 2, 2026
- Cyprus 2-0 ArmeniaOct 2, 2026
- Latvia 1-2 MontenegroOct 2, 2026
- Belgium 3-0 TürkiyeOct 2, 2026
- Faroe Islands 1-1 SlovakiaOct 2, 2026
- Ukraine 0-3 Northern IrelandOct 2, 2026
- Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-1 SwedenOct 2, 2026
- France 1-1 ItalyOct 2, 2026
- Finland 2-1 AlbaniaOct 3, 2026
- Croatia 0-7 EnglandOct 3, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Poland vs Romania prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Poland a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Romania 15%. Poland are therefore favourites. Final score: 6-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Poland vs Romania?
1-0 (14.8%), followed by 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.3%) and 0-0 (8.5%).
Will both teams score in Poland vs Romania?
The probability that both Poland and Romania score is 42%. Poland have a 49% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Romania 17%.
How many goals should we expect in Poland vs Romania?
The model expects 2.47 goals (1.75 for Poland, 0.72 for Romania). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 71%, over 2.5 goals 45%, over 3.5 goals 24%.
When and where is Poland vs Romania played?
Friday, October 2, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: National Stadium Warsaw, Warsaw.
What form are Poland and Romania in?
Poland: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 10 conceded). Romania: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Poland and Romania?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Poland, 0 for Romania and 0 draws. The most recent ended Poland 3-1 Romania (Jun 10, 2017).
What was the Poland vs Romania result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Poland 6-0 Romania. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Poland at 62%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (45%): missed.
How is the Poland vs Romania prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.75 for Poland, 0.72 for Romania) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Poland predictions
- All Romania predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology