UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, October 2, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Poland vs Romania prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Poland take on Romania on Friday, October 2, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. Poland start as favourites with a 51% chance of victory; Romania are given 24% and the draw 25%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Poland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, Romania have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Poland score 1.80 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Romania score 2.00 and concede 1.20.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Poland and Romania: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Poland or draw" stands at 76%, "Romania or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Poland are favourites for this Poland v Romania, with a 51% win probability from our model. On recent form, Poland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Romania have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Poland – Romania. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Poland 1-1 Romania | 11.8% |
| Poland 1-0 Romania | 11.4% |
| Poland 2-1 Romania | 9.5% |
| Poland 2-0 Romania | 9.3% |
| Poland 0-1 Romania | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.62 expected goals for Poland and 1.03 for Romania, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Poland keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Romania in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Poland expected goals | 1.62 |
| Romania expected goals | 1.03 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Poland clean sheet | 36% |
| Romania clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Poland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2026 | Nigeria · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| May 31, 2026 | Ukraine · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sweden · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-3 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Albania · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-1 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Malta · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 3-2 | W |
Romania
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Wales · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Georgia · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Slovakia · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Türkiye · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-1 | L |
| Nov 18, 2025 | San Marino · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 7-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Romania | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Poland and Romania: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Poland
No absences reported.
Romania
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Poland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- P. Zielinski5/5
- R. Lewandowski5/5
- J. Kaminski4/5
- J. Kiwior4/5
- N. Zalewski4/5
- P. Wisniewski4/5
- S. Szymanski4/5
- J. Bednarek3/5
- K. Grabara3/5
- T. Kedziora3/5
- B. Slisz2/5
Romania
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- V. Dragomir4/5
- A. Ratiu3/5
- D. Birligea3/5
- D. Man3/5
- N. Bancu3/5
- R. Dragusin3/5
- S. Baiaram3/5
- V. Ghita3/5
- A. Burca2/5
- F. Tanase2/5
- I. Hagi2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Kazakhstan – MoldovaOct 2, 2026
- Cyprus – ArmeniaOct 2, 2026
- Latvia – MontenegroOct 2, 2026
- Belgium – TürkiyeOct 2, 2026
- Faroe Islands – SlovakiaOct 2, 2026
- Ukraine – Northern IrelandOct 2, 2026
- Bosnia & Herzegovina – SwedenOct 2, 2026
- France – ItalyOct 2, 2026
- Finland – AlbaniaOct 3, 2026
- Croatia – EnglandOct 3, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Poland vs Romania prediction?
Our AI gives Poland a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Romania 24%. Poland are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Poland vs Romania?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.3%) and 0-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Poland vs Romania?
The probability that both Poland and Romania score is 52%. Poland have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Romania 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Poland vs Romania?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.62 for Poland, 1.03 for Romania). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Poland vs Romania played?
Friday, October 2, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Poland and Romania in?
Poland: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 10 conceded). Romania: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded).
How is the Poland vs Romania prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.62 for Poland, 1.03 for Romania) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Poland predictions
- All Romania predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology