Brasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Atletico-MG vs Santos: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Atletico-MG 2-1 Santos. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Atletico-MG was the model's favourite outcome (43%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (8.5%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): missed.
Match analysis
Atletico-MG vs Santos was played on Sunday, October 11, 2026 (Brasileirão Série A, matchday 30). Venue: Arena MRV, Bello Harisanta. Before kick-off, our model gave Atletico-MG a 43% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Santos 29%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (13.2%), ahead of 1-1 (13.0%) and 0-0 (10.1%).
Atletico-MG are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Santos have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 9. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Atletico-MG score 2.20 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Santos score 2.00 and concede 1.80. In the table, Atletico-MG sit 7th with 44 points from 29 games, Santos 8th with 42 points from 29. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Atletico-MG, 3 for Santos and 1 draw. The most recent ended Atletico-MG 4-2 Santos (Sep 16, 2026). Atletico-MG out or doubtful: M. Cassierra, Everson, A. Franco, Gustavo Scarpa, A. Minda, A. Preciado, Ruan Tressoldi and Cuello (suspended). Santos: Arthur Melo, Everton, Gabriel Brazao and Vinicius Lira. In double chance terms, "Atletico-MG or draw" stands at 71%, "Santos or draw" at 57% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : Our model backs Atletico-MG to edge Santos (43% probability). In the table, Atletico-MG (7th, 44 pts) host Santos (8th, 42 pts). The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Atletico-MG – Santos. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 55% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atletico-MG 1-0 Santos | 13.2% |
| Atletico-MG 1-1 Santos | 13.0% |
| Atletico-MG 0-0 Santos | 10.1% |
| Atletico-MG 0-1 Santos | 10.0% |
| Atletico-MG 2-0 Santos | 8.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.29 goals in total (1.30 for Atletico-MG, 0.99 for Santos): over 2.5 goals has a 40% probability and both teams to score 46%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Atletico-MG keep a clean sheet in 37% of scenarios, Santos in 27%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Atletico-MG expected goals | 1.30 |
| Santos expected goals | 0.99 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% |
| Atletico-MG clean sheet | 37% |
| Santos clean sheet | 27% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Atletico-MG
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense · Brasileirão Série A | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 3, 2026 | RB Bragantino · Brasileirão Série A | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc · Brasileirão Série A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Santos · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 4-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fluminense · Brasileirão Série A | 3-1 | W |
Santos
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Flamengo · Brasileirão Série A | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Sao Paulo · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Remo · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Atletico-MG · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2-4 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Cruzeiro · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | 7 | 44 | 29 |
| Santos | 8 | 42 | 29 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Atletico-MG 4-2 Santos | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Santos 2-0 Atletico-MG | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Santos 1-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Atletico-MG 1-1 Santos | Serie A |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Santos 2-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Atletico-MG
- M. Cassierra (out)
- Everson (out)
- A. Franco (out)
- Gustavo Scarpa (out)
- A. Minda (out)
- A. Preciado (out)
- Ruan Tressoldi (out)
- Cuello (suspended)
Santos
- Arthur Melo (out)
- Everton (out)
- Gabriel Brazao (out)
- Vinicius Lira (out)
Most regular starters
Atletico-MG
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Bernard5/5
- Fred5/5
- Gabriel Delfim5/5
- Maycon4/5
- Natanael4/5
- Reinier4/5
- Vitão4/5
- Lyanco3/5
- Vitor Hugo3/5
- Kauã Pascini2/5
- Renan Lodi2/5
Santos
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Rodinei5/5
- Gabriel Barbosa4/5
- Gabriel Bontempo4/5
- G. Escobar3/5
- Luan Peres3/5
- Rony3/5
- Willian Arão3/5
- C. Oliva2/5
- Diogenes2/5
- Gabriel Brazão2/5
- Gustavinho2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Fluminense 4-0 CoritibaOct 9, 2026
- Vasco DA Gama 0-0 RemoOct 10, 2026
- Sao Paulo 2-1 VitoriaOct 11, 2026
- Flamengo 1-0 FluminenseOct 11, 2026
- Gremio 1-1 InternacionalOct 11, 2026
- Palmeiras 4-1 CorinthiansOct 11, 2026
- Bahia 1-0 MirassolOct 11, 2026
- Coritiba 1-1 BotafogoOct 12, 2026
- Chapecoense-sc 1-4 Atletico ParanaenseOct 12, 2026
- RB Bragantino 4-2 CruzeiroOct 13, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Atletico-MG vs Santos prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Atletico-MG a 43% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Santos 29%. Atletico-MG are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Atletico-MG vs Santos?
1-0 (13.2%), followed by 1-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (10.0%) and 2-0 (8.6%).
Will both teams score in Atletico-MG vs Santos?
The probability that both Atletico-MG and Santos score is 46%. Atletico-MG have a 37% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Santos 27%.
How many goals should we expect in Atletico-MG vs Santos?
The model expects 2.29 goals (1.30 for Atletico-MG, 0.99 for Santos). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 67%, over 2.5 goals 40%, over 3.5 goals 20%.
When and where is Atletico-MG vs Santos played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 30. Venue: Arena MRV, Bello Harisanta.
What form are Atletico-MG and Santos in?
Atletico-MG: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 6 conceded). Santos: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Santos?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Atletico-MG, 3 for Santos and 1 draw. The most recent ended Atletico-MG 4-2 Santos (Sep 16, 2026).
What was the Atletico-MG vs Santos result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Atletico-MG 2-1 Santos. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Atletico-MG was the model's favourite outcome (43%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (8.5%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): missed.
How is the Atletico-MG vs Santos prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.30 for Atletico-MG, 0.99 for Santos) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Atletico-MG predictions
- All Santos predictions
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Santos cards
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology