Brasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Monday, October 12, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Coritiba vs Botafogo: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Coritiba 1-1 Botafogo. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Botafogo (39%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (54%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
Match analysis
Coritiba and Botafogo met on Monday, October 12, 2026, a Brasileirão Série A, matchday 30 fixture. Venue: Estádio Couto Pereira, Curitiba. Before kick-off, our model gave Coritiba a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Botafogo 39%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.3%), followed by 0-1 (9.6%) and 1-0 (8.9%).
Coritiba have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 16. Botafogo have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Coritiba score 1.40 and concede 3.20 goals per game; Botafogo score 1.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Coritiba sit 10th with 38 points from 29 games, Botafogo 13th with 35 points from 29. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Coritiba have averaged 1.81 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.00 for Botafogo.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Coritiba, 2 for Botafogo and 2 draws. The most recent ended Botafogo 2-2 Coritiba (Apr 12, 2026). Coritiba out or doubtful: Keno, J. Lavega, Lucas Ronier, Lucas Taverna, B. Ocampo (doubtful), Pedro Morisco, Tiago Coser and Bruno Melo (suspended). Botafogo: J. Barrera and Kaio Pantaleao. In double chance terms, "Coritiba or draw" stands at 61%, "Botafogo or draw" at 65% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Coritiba and Botafogo meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 26%). On recent form, Coritiba have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Botafogo have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. One to watch: Coritiba will be without Keno and J. Lavega.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Coritiba – Botafogo. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 47% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Coritiba 1-1 Botafogo | 12.3% |
| Coritiba 0-1 Botafogo | 9.6% |
| Coritiba 1-0 Botafogo | 8.9% |
| Coritiba 1-2 Botafogo | 8.5% |
| Coritiba 2-1 Botafogo | 8.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.29 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.38 for Botafogo, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 54%. Coritiba keep a clean sheet in 25% of scenarios, Botafogo in 28%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Coritiba expected goals | 1.29 |
| Botafogo expected goals | 1.38 |
| Both teams to score | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Coritiba clean sheet | 25% |
| Botafogo clean sheet | 28% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Coritiba
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Fluminense · Brasileirão Série A | 0-4 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama · Brasileirão Série A | 0-5 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense · Brasileirão Série A | 3-3 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Mirassol · Brasileirão Série A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Remo · Brasileirão Série A | 3-2 | W |
Botafogo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama · Brasileirão Série A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Mirassol · Brasileirão Série A | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Gremio · Brasileirão Série A | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | RB Bragantino · Brasileirão Série A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Palmeiras · Brasileirão Série A | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba | 10 | 38 | 29 |
| Botafogo | 13 | 35 | 29 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Botafogo 2-2 Coritiba | Serie A |
| Nov 30, 2023 | Coritiba 1-1 Botafogo | Serie A |
| Jul 30, 2023 | Botafogo 4-1 Coritiba | Serie A |
| Sep 17, 2022 | Botafogo 2-0 Coritiba | Serie A |
| May 29, 2022 | Coritiba 1-0 Botafogo | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Coritiba
- Keno (out)
- J. Lavega (out)
- Lucas Ronier (out)
- Lucas Taverna (out)
- B. Ocampo (doubtful)
- Pedro Morisco (out)
- Tiago Coser (out)
- Bruno Melo (suspended)
Botafogo
- J. Barrera (out)
- Kaio Pantaleao (out)
Most regular starters
Coritiba
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Bruno Melo5/5
- Pedro Rocha5/5
- Breno Lopes4/5
- Pedro Morisco4/5
- Thiago Santos4/5
- Fabinho2/5
- J. Lavega2/5
- Jacy2/5
- Jacy Maranhão2/5
- João Pedro Chermont2/5
- Joaquín Lavega2/5
Botafogo
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Danilo Santos5/5
- Gabriel Batista5/5
- Huguinho5/5
- Vitinho5/5
- Alex Telles4/5
- Arthur Cabral4/5
- Danilo Pereira3/5
- A. Montoro2/5
- Álvaro Montoro2/5
- Arthur Chaves2/5
- L. Monzon2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Fluminense 4-0 CoritibaOct 9, 2026
- Vasco DA Gama 0-0 RemoOct 10, 2026
- Sao Paulo 2-1 VitoriaOct 11, 2026
- Atletico-MG 2-1 SantosOct 11, 2026
- Flamengo 1-0 FluminenseOct 11, 2026
- Gremio 1-1 InternacionalOct 11, 2026
- Palmeiras 4-1 CorinthiansOct 11, 2026
- Bahia 1-0 MirassolOct 11, 2026
- Chapecoense-sc 1-4 Atletico ParanaenseOct 12, 2026
- RB Bragantino 4-2 CruzeiroOct 13, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Coritiba vs Botafogo prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Coritiba a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Botafogo 39%. Botafogo are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Coritiba vs Botafogo?
1-1 (12.3%), followed by 0-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.5%) and 2-1 (8.0%).
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Botafogo?
The probability that both Coritiba and Botafogo score is 54%. Coritiba have a 25% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Botafogo 28%.
How many goals should we expect in Coritiba vs Botafogo?
The model expects 2.67 goals (1.29 for Coritiba, 1.38 for Botafogo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Coritiba vs Botafogo played?
Monday, October 12, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 30. Venue: Estádio Couto Pereira, Curitiba.
What form are Coritiba and Botafogo in?
Coritiba: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 16 conceded). Botafogo: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Botafogo?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Coritiba, 2 for Botafogo and 2 draws. The most recent ended Botafogo 2-2 Coritiba (Apr 12, 2026).
What was the Coritiba vs Botafogo result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Coritiba 1-1 Botafogo. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Botafogo (39%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (54%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
How is the Coritiba vs Botafogo prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.29 for Coritiba, 1.38 for Botafogo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Coritiba predictions
- All Botafogo predictions
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Botafogo cards
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology