Brasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Friday, October 9, 2026, 01:30 (UK time)
Fluminense vs Coritiba: 4-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Fluminense 4-0 Coritiba. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Fluminense was the model's favourite outcome (67%). The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.3%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): correct.
Match analysis
Fluminense vs Coritiba was played on Friday, October 9, 2026 (Brasileirão Série A, matchday 29). Venue: Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro. Before kick-off, our model gave Fluminense a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Coritiba 13%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.7%), ahead of 1-0 (12.5%) and 2-1 (9.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Fluminense have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Coritiba have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 13. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Fluminense score 1.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Coritiba score 1.80 and concede 2.60. In the table, Fluminense sit 5th with 48 points from 28 games, Coritiba 9th with 38 points from 28. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Fluminense have averaged 2.38 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.25 for Coritiba.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Fluminense, 2 for Coritiba and 1 draw. The most recent ended Coritiba 1-1 Fluminense (Apr 5, 2026). Fluminense out or doubtful: Alisson, G. Cano, A. Canobbio (suspended), John Kennedy, Matheus Reis, Nonato (suspended), Ignacio (doubtful) and Rene (doubtful). Coritiba: Joao Pedro Chermont, Keno, J. Lavega, Lucas Ronier, Lucas Taverna, Pedro Morisco, Tiago Coser and B. Ocampo (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Fluminense or draw" stands at 87%, "Coritiba or draw" at 33% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Fluminense are tipped by our AI model in this Fluminense v Coritiba (67%). On recent form, Fluminense have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Coritiba have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Fluminense – Coritiba. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 53% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Fluminense 2-0 Coritiba | 12.7% |
| Fluminense 1-0 Coritiba | 12.5% |
| Fluminense 2-1 Coritiba | 9.6% |
| Fluminense 1-1 Coritiba | 9.5% |
| Fluminense 3-0 Coritiba | 8.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.79 goals in total (2.03 for Fluminense, 0.76 for Coritiba): over 2.5 goals has a 53% probability and both teams to score 46%. Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 47% of scenarios, Coritiba in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Fluminense expected goals | 2.03 |
| Coritiba expected goals | 0.76 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% |
| Fluminense clean sheet | 47% |
| Coritiba clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Fluminense
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Corinthians · Brasileirão Série A | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Platense · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atletico-MG · Brasileirão Série A | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Platense · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama · Brasileirão Série A | 1-0 | W |
Coritiba
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama · Brasileirão Série A | 0-5 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense · Brasileirão Série A | 3-3 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Mirassol · Brasileirão Série A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Remo · Brasileirão Série A | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Corinthians · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 5 | 48 | 28 |
| Coritiba | 9 | 38 | 28 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Coritiba 1-1 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Nov 26, 2023 | Fluminense 2-1 Coritiba | Serie A |
| Jul 24, 2023 | Coritiba 2-0 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Aug 20, 2022 | Fluminense 5-2 Coritiba | Serie A |
| May 1, 2022 | Coritiba 3-2 Fluminense | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Fluminense
- Alisson (out)
- G. Cano (out)
- A. Canobbio (suspended)
- John Kennedy (out)
- Matheus Reis (out)
- Nonato (suspended)
- Ignacio (doubtful)
- Rene (doubtful)
Coritiba
- Joao Pedro Chermont (out)
- Keno (out)
- J. Lavega (out)
- Lucas Ronier (out)
- Lucas Taverna (out)
- Pedro Morisco (out)
- Tiago Coser (out)
- B. Ocampo (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Fluminense
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Canobbio4/5
- Hulk4/5
- Martinelli4/5
- Nonato4/5
- Fabio3/5
- Guga3/5
- PH Ganso3/5
- Thiago Silva3/5
- Y. Soteldo3/5
- Fábio2/5
- J. Millan2/5
Coritiba
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Bruno Melo5/5
- J. Lavega5/5
- Pedro Rocha5/5
- Breno Lopes4/5
- Jacy4/5
- Joao Pedro Chermont4/5
- Pedro Morisco4/5
- S. Gomez4/5
- Thiago Santos4/5
- Tiago Coser3/5
- Fabinho2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Remo 1-1 GremioOct 7, 2026
- Internacional 2-1 CorinthiansOct 7, 2026
- RB Bragantino 1-1 MirassolOct 7, 2026
- Vitoria 4-0 Chapecoense-scOct 8, 2026
- Botafogo 1-2 Vasco DA GamaOct 8, 2026
- Cruzeiro 2-0 Sao PauloOct 8, 2026
- Santos 2-2 FlamengoOct 8, 2026
- Atletico Paranaense 2-2 Atletico-MGOct 9, 2026
- Palmeiras 1-0 BahiaOct 9, 2026
- Vasco DA Gama 0-0 RemoOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Fluminense vs Coritiba prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Fluminense a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Coritiba 13%. Fluminense are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Fluminense vs Coritiba?
2-0 (12.7%), followed by 1-0 (12.5%), 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.5%) and 3-0 (8.6%).
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Coritiba?
The probability that both Fluminense and Coritiba score is 46%. Fluminense have a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Coritiba 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Fluminense vs Coritiba?
The model expects 2.79 goals (2.03 for Fluminense, 0.76 for Coritiba). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 53%, over 3.5 goals 31%.
When and where is Fluminense vs Coritiba played?
Friday, October 9, 2026 at 01:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 29. Venue: Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro.
What form are Fluminense and Coritiba in?
Fluminense: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded). Coritiba: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 13 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Coritiba?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Fluminense, 2 for Coritiba and 1 draw. The most recent ended Coritiba 1-1 Fluminense (Apr 5, 2026).
What was the Fluminense vs Coritiba result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Fluminense 4-0 Coritiba. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Fluminense was the model's favourite outcome (67%). The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.3%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): correct.
How is the Fluminense vs Coritiba prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.03 for Fluminense, 0.76 for Coritiba) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Fluminense predictions
- All Coritiba predictions
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology