Brasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Friday, October 9, 2026, 01:30 (UK time)
Fluminense vs Coritiba prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Brasileirão Série A, matchday 29: Fluminense vs Coritiba kicks off on Friday, October 9, 2026 at 01:30 (UK time). Venue: Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro. With a 79% win probability, Fluminense go in as strong favourites against Coritiba (9%), with the draw rated at 12%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (8.5%), ahead of 2-0 (8.3%) and 3-1 (8.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Fluminense have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Coritiba have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 13. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Fluminense score 1.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Coritiba score 1.80 and concede 2.60. In the table, Fluminense sit 4th with 48 points from 28 games, Coritiba 9th with 38 points from 28. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Fluminense have averaged 2.38 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.25 for Coritiba.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Fluminense, 0 for Coritiba and 1 draw. The most recent ended Coritiba 1-1 Fluminense (Apr 5, 2026). Fluminense out or doubtful: Alisson, G. Cano, Guga, Ignacio, John Kennedy and Matheus Reis. Coritiba: Breno Lopes (suspended), Jacy, Joao Pedro Chermont, Keno, Lucas Ronier, B. Ocampo and Tinga. In double chance terms, "Fluminense or draw" stands at 91%, "Coritiba or draw" at 21% and "no draw" at 88%.
In short : Fluminense are tipped by our AI model in this Fluminense v Coritiba (79%). On recent form, Fluminense have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Coritiba have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 3-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Fluminense – Coritiba. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (8.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 40% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Fluminense 3-0 Coritiba | 8.5% |
| Fluminense 2-0 Coritiba | 8.3% |
| Fluminense 3-1 Coritiba | 8.2% |
| Fluminense 2-1 Coritiba | 8.1% |
| Fluminense 4-0 Coritiba | 6.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.03 goals in total (3.06 for Fluminense, 0.97 for Coritiba): over 2.5 goals has a 77% probability and both teams to score 59%. Everything points to an open game. Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Coritiba in 5%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Fluminense expected goals | 3.06 |
| Coritiba expected goals | 0.97 |
| Both teams to score | 59% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 57% |
| Fluminense clean sheet | 38% |
| Coritiba clean sheet | 5% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Fluminense
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Corinthians · Brasileirão Série A | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Platense · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atletico-MG · Brasileirão Série A | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Platense · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama · Brasileirão Série A | 1-0 | W |
Coritiba
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama · Brasileirão Série A | 0-5 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense · Brasileirão Série A | 3-3 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Mirassol · Brasileirão Série A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Remo · Brasileirão Série A | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Corinthians · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 4 | 48 | 28 |
| Coritiba | 9 | 38 | 28 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Coritiba 1-1 Fluminense | Brasileirão Série A |
Out and doubtful
Fluminense
- Alisson (out)
- G. Cano (out)
- Guga (out)
- Ignacio (out)
- John Kennedy (out)
- Matheus Reis (out)
Coritiba
- Breno Lopes (suspended)
- Jacy (out)
- Joao Pedro Chermont (out)
- Keno (out)
- Lucas Ronier (out)
- B. Ocampo (out)
- Tinga (out)
Most regular starters
Fluminense
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Canobbio4/5
- Hulk4/5
- Martinelli4/5
- Nonato4/5
- Fabio3/5
- Guga3/5
- PH Ganso3/5
- Thiago Silva3/5
- Y. Soteldo3/5
- Fábio2/5
- J. Millan2/5
Coritiba
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Bruno Melo5/5
- J. Lavega5/5
- Pedro Rocha5/5
- Breno Lopes4/5
- Jacy4/5
- Joao Pedro Chermont4/5
- Pedro Morisco4/5
- S. Gomez4/5
- Thiago Santos4/5
- Tiago Coser3/5
- Fabinho2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Remo – GremioOct 7, 2026
- Internacional – CorinthiansOct 7, 2026
- RB Bragantino – MirassolOct 7, 2026
- Vitoria – Chapecoense-scOct 8, 2026
- Botafogo – Vasco DA GamaOct 8, 2026
- Cruzeiro – Sao PauloOct 8, 2026
- Santos – FlamengoOct 8, 2026
- Atletico Paranaense – Atletico-MGOct 9, 2026
- Palmeiras – BahiaOct 9, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Fluminense vs Coritiba prediction?
Our AI gives Fluminense a 79% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Coritiba 9%. Fluminense are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Fluminense vs Coritiba?
3-0 (8.5%), followed by 2-0 (8.3%), 3-1 (8.2%), 2-1 (8.1%) and 4-0 (6.5%).
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Coritiba?
The probability that both Fluminense and Coritiba score is 59%. Fluminense have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Coritiba 5%.
How many goals should we expect in Fluminense vs Coritiba?
The model expects 4.03 goals (3.06 for Fluminense, 0.97 for Coritiba). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 91%, over 2.5 goals 77%, over 3.5 goals 57%.
When and where is Fluminense vs Coritiba played?
Friday, October 9, 2026 at 01:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 29. Venue: Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro.
What form are Fluminense and Coritiba in?
Fluminense: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded). Coritiba: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 13 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Coritiba?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Fluminense, 0 for Coritiba and 1 draw. The most recent ended Coritiba 1-1 Fluminense (Apr 5, 2026).
How is the Fluminense vs Coritiba prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.06 for Fluminense, 0.97 for Coritiba) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Fluminense predictions
- All Coritiba predictions
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology