Brasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Friday, October 9, 2026, 00:00 (UK time)
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Atletico Paranaense 2-2 Atletico-MG. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Atletico Paranaense (66%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (28%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (33%): missed.
Match analysis
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG was played on Friday, October 9, 2026 (Brasileirão Série A, matchday 29). Venue: Arena da Baixada, Curitiba. Before kick-off, our model gave Atletico Paranaense a 66% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico-MG 10%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (21.2%), ahead of 2-0 (16.7%) and 0-0 (13.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Paranaense have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 12. Over their last 5 matches, Atletico-MG have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Atletico Paranaense score 2.40 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Atletico-MG score 1.80 and concede 1.20. In the table, Atletico Paranaense sit 3rd with 49 points from 28 games, Atletico-MG 7th with 43 points from 28. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Atletico Paranaense have averaged 1.35 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.50 for Atletico-MG.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Atletico Paranaense, 3 for Atletico-MG and 1 draw. The most recent ended Atletico-MG 2-1 Atletico Paranaense (Apr 5, 2026). Atletico Paranaense out or doubtful: F. Aguirre (suspended), G. Benavidez, Dantas, Claudinho (doubtful) and K. Viveros (doubtful). Atletico-MG: M. Cassierra, Everson, A. Franco, Gustavo Scarpa, A. Minda, A. Preciado, Ruan Tressoldi and K. Castano (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Atletico Paranaense or draw" stands at 90%, "Atletico-MG or draw" at 34% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Atletico Paranaense are favourites for this Atletico Paranaense v Atletico-MG, with a 66% win probability from our model. In the table, Atletico Paranaense (3rd, 49 pts) host Atletico-MG (7th, 43 pts). One to watch: Atletico-MG will be without M. Cassierra and Everson.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Atletico Paranaense – Atletico-MG. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (21.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 69% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Atletico-MG | 21.2% |
| Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Atletico-MG | 16.7% |
| Atletico Paranaense 0-0 Atletico-MG | 13.4% |
| Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Atletico-MG | 9.1% |
| Atletico Paranaense 3-0 Atletico-MG | 8.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.01 goals in total (1.58 for Atletico Paranaense, 0.43 for Atletico-MG): over 2.5 goals has a 33% probability and both teams to score 28%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 65% of scenarios, Atletico-MG in 21%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense expected goals | 1.58 |
| Atletico-MG expected goals | 0.43 |
| Both teams to score | 28% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% |
| Atletico Paranaense clean sheet | 65% |
| Atletico-MG clean sheet | 21% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Atletico Paranaense
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bahia · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Coritiba · Brasileirão Série A | 3-3 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Cruzeiro · Brasileirão Série A | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Fluminense · Brasileirão Série A | 3-3 | D |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Botafogo · Brasileirão Série A | 3-2 | W |
Atletico-MG
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | RB Bragantino · Brasileirão Série A | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc · Brasileirão Série A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Santos · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 4-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fluminense · Brasileirão Série A | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Santos · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 3 | 49 | 28 |
| Atletico-MG | 7 | 43 | 28 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Atletico-MG 2-1 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Atletico-MG 1-0 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| May 23, 2023 | Atletico-MG 2-1 Atletico Paranaense | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
Out and doubtful
Atletico Paranaense
- F. Aguirre (suspended)
- G. Benavidez (out)
- Dantas (out)
- Claudinho (doubtful)
- K. Viveros (doubtful)
Atletico-MG
- M. Cassierra (out)
- Everson (out)
- A. Franco (out)
- Gustavo Scarpa (out)
- A. Minda (out)
- A. Preciado (out)
- Ruan Tressoldi (out)
- K. Castano (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Atletico Paranaense
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Arthur Dias5/5
- Dantas5/5
- Luiz Gustavo5/5
- S. Mendoza5/5
- F. Aguirre4/5
- Jadson4/5
- Joao Cruz4/5
- K. Viveros4/5
- Leozinho4/5
- G. Benavidez3/5
- Mycael3/5
Atletico-MG
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Bernard5/5
- Fred5/5
- Gabriel Delfim5/5
- Maycon4/5
- Vitor Hugo4/5
- Lyanco3/5
- Natanael3/5
- Reinier3/5
- Vitão3/5
- A. Franco2/5
- Kauã Pascini2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Remo 1-1 GremioOct 7, 2026
- Internacional 2-1 CorinthiansOct 7, 2026
- RB Bragantino 1-1 MirassolOct 7, 2026
- Vitoria 4-0 Chapecoense-scOct 8, 2026
- Botafogo 1-2 Vasco DA GamaOct 8, 2026
- Cruzeiro 2-0 Sao PauloOct 8, 2026
- Santos 2-2 FlamengoOct 8, 2026
- Fluminense 4-0 CoritibaOct 9, 2026
- Palmeiras 1-0 BahiaOct 9, 2026
- Vasco DA Gama 0-0 RemoOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Atletico Paranaense a 66% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico-MG 10%. Atletico Paranaense are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
1-0 (21.2%), followed by 2-0 (16.7%), 0-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (9.1%) and 3-0 (8.8%).
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
The probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG score is 28%. Atletico Paranaense have a 65% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atletico-MG 21%.
How many goals should we expect in Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
The model expects 2.01 goals (1.58 for Atletico Paranaense, 0.43 for Atletico-MG). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 60%, over 2.5 goals 33%, over 3.5 goals 15%.
When and where is Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG played?
Friday, October 9, 2026 at 00:00 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 29. Venue: Arena da Baixada, Curitiba.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG in?
Atletico Paranaense: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 12 conceded). Atletico-MG: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Atletico Paranaense, 3 for Atletico-MG and 1 draw. The most recent ended Atletico-MG 2-1 Atletico Paranaense (Apr 5, 2026).
What was the Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Atletico Paranaense 2-2 Atletico-MG. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Atletico Paranaense (66%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (28%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (33%): missed.
How is the Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.58 for Atletico Paranaense, 0.43 for Atletico-MG) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Atletico Paranaense predictions
- All Atletico-MG predictions
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology