Brasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Friday, October 9, 2026, 00:00 (UK time)
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Brasileirão Série A, matchday 29: the Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG match is scheduled on Friday, October 9, 2026 at 00:00 (UK time). Venue: Arena da Baixada, Curitiba. With a 65% win probability, Atletico Paranaense go in as strong favourites against Atletico-MG (11%), with the draw rated at 24%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (18.6%), ahead of 2-0 (15.4%) and 0-0 (11.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Paranaense have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 12. Over their last 5 matches, Atletico-MG have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Atletico Paranaense score 2.40 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Atletico-MG score 1.60 and concede 1.60. In the table, Atletico Paranaense sit 3rd with 49 points from 28 games, Atletico-MG 7th with 40 points from 27. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Atletico Paranaense have averaged 1.35 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.65 for Atletico-MG.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Atletico Paranaense, 3 for Atletico-MG and 1 draw. The most recent ended Atletico-MG 2-1 Atletico Paranaense (Apr 5, 2026). Atletico Paranaense out or doubtful: G. Benavidez, Claudinho, Joao Cruz (suspended) and K. Viveros (suspended). Atletico-MG: Everson, Reinier and Ruan Tressoldi. In double chance terms, "Atletico Paranaense or draw" stands at 89%, "Atletico-MG or draw" at 35% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Atletico Paranaense are favourites for this Atletico Paranaense v Atletico-MG, with a 65% win probability from our model. In the table, Atletico Paranaense (3rd, 49 pts) host Atletico-MG (7th, 40 pts). One to watch: Atletico Paranaense will be without G. Benavidez and Claudinho.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Atletico Paranaense – Atletico-MG. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (18.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 63% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Atletico-MG | 18.6% |
| Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Atletico-MG | 15.4% |
| Atletico Paranaense 0-0 Atletico-MG | 11.2% |
| Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Atletico-MG | 9.8% |
| Atletico Paranaense 3-0 Atletico-MG | 8.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.19 goals in total (1.66 for Atletico Paranaense, 0.53 for Atletico-MG): over 2.5 goals has a 38% probability and both teams to score 33%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 59% of scenarios, Atletico-MG in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense expected goals | 1.66 |
| Atletico-MG expected goals | 0.53 |
| Both teams to score | 33% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% |
| Atletico Paranaense clean sheet | 59% |
| Atletico-MG clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Atletico Paranaense
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bahia · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Coritiba · Brasileirão Série A | 3-3 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Cruzeiro · Brasileirão Série A | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Fluminense · Brasileirão Série A | 3-3 | D |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Botafogo · Brasileirão Série A | 3-2 | W |
Atletico-MG
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc · Brasileirão Série A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Santos · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 4-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fluminense · Brasileirão Série A | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Santos · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sao Paulo · Brasileirão Série A | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 3 | 49 | 28 |
| Atletico-MG | 7 | 40 | 27 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Atletico-MG 2-1 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Atletico-MG 1-0 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| May 23, 2023 | Atletico-MG 2-1 Atletico Paranaense | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
Out and doubtful
Atletico Paranaense
- G. Benavidez (out)
- Claudinho (out)
- Joao Cruz (suspended)
- K. Viveros (suspended)
Atletico-MG
- Everson (out)
- Reinier (out)
- Ruan Tressoldi (out)
Most regular starters
Atletico Paranaense
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Arthur Dias5/5
- Dantas5/5
- Luiz Gustavo5/5
- S. Mendoza5/5
- F. Aguirre4/5
- Jadson4/5
- Joao Cruz4/5
- K. Viveros4/5
- Leozinho4/5
- G. Benavidez3/5
- Mycael3/5
Atletico-MG
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Bernard5/5
- Gabriel Delfim5/5
- A. Franco4/5
- Fred4/5
- K. Castano3/5
- Maycon3/5
- Natanael3/5
- Reinier3/5
- Vitor Hugo3/5
- Alexsander2/5
- Cuello2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Remo – GremioOct 7, 2026
- Internacional – CorinthiansOct 7, 2026
- RB Bragantino – MirassolOct 7, 2026
- Vitoria – Chapecoense-scOct 8, 2026
- Botafogo – Vasco DA GamaOct 8, 2026
- Cruzeiro – Sao PauloOct 8, 2026
- Santos – FlamengoOct 8, 2026
- Fluminense – CoritibaOct 9, 2026
- Palmeiras – BahiaOct 9, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG prediction?
Our AI gives Atletico Paranaense a 65% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico-MG 11%. Atletico Paranaense are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
1-0 (18.6%), followed by 2-0 (15.4%), 0-0 (11.2%), 1-1 (9.8%) and 3-0 (8.5%).
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
The probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG score is 33%. Atletico Paranaense have a 59% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atletico-MG 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
The model expects 2.19 goals (1.66 for Atletico Paranaense, 0.53 for Atletico-MG). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 64%, over 2.5 goals 38%, over 3.5 goals 18%.
When and where is Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG played?
Friday, October 9, 2026 at 00:00 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 29. Venue: Arena da Baixada, Curitiba.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG in?
Atletico Paranaense: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 12 conceded). Atletico-MG: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Atletico Paranaense, 3 for Atletico-MG and 1 draw. The most recent ended Atletico-MG 2-1 Atletico Paranaense (Apr 5, 2026).
How is the Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.66 for Atletico Paranaense, 0.53 for Atletico-MG) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Atletico Paranaense predictions
- All Atletico-MG predictions
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology