Brasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Thursday, October 8, 2026, 01:30 (UK time)
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo: 2-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Cruzeiro 2-0 Sao Paulo. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Cruzeiro was the model's favourite outcome (54%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (11.2%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (41%): correct.
Match analysis
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo was played on Thursday, October 8, 2026 (Brasileirão Série A, matchday 29). Venue: Estádio Mineirão, Belo Horizonte. Before kick-off, our model gave Cruzeiro a 54% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sao Paulo 20%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (14.8%), ahead of 1-1 (12.0%) and 2-0 (11.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Cruzeiro have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Sao Paulo have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Cruzeiro score 1.80 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Sao Paulo score 0.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, Cruzeiro sit 6th with 45 points from 28 games, Sao Paulo 10th with 36 points from 28. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Cruzeiro, 2 for Sao Paulo and 2 draws. The most recent ended Sao Paulo 4-1 Cruzeiro (Apr 4, 2026). Cruzeiro out or doubtful: Fabricio Bruno, Gabriel Pec, L. Sinisterra, K. Arroyo (doubtful), Kenji (doubtful) and N. Villarreal (doubtful). Sao Paulo: N. Bosshardt, Buta, Djhordney, D. Duarte, Jonathan Calleri (suspended), Lucas Moura, Lucca Marques (doubtful) and P. dos Santos. In double chance terms, "Cruzeiro or draw" stands at 80%, "Sao Paulo or draw" at 46% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Cruzeiro are tipped by our AI model in this Cruzeiro v Sao Paulo (54%). In the table, Cruzeiro (6th, 45 pts) host Sao Paulo (10th, 36 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Cruzeiro – Sao Paulo. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 57% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cruzeiro 1-0 Sao Paulo | 14.8% |
| Cruzeiro 1-1 Sao Paulo | 12.0% |
| Cruzeiro 2-0 Sao Paulo | 11.2% |
| Cruzeiro 0-0 Sao Paulo | 9.7% |
| Cruzeiro 2-1 Sao Paulo | 9.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.33 goals in total (1.52 for Cruzeiro, 0.81 for Sao Paulo): over 2.5 goals has a 41% probability and both teams to score 43%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Sao Paulo in 22%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Cruzeiro expected goals | 1.52 |
| Sao Paulo expected goals | 0.81 |
| Both teams to score | 43% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% |
| Cruzeiro clean sheet | 45% |
| Sao Paulo clean sheet | 22% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Cruzeiro
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Vitoria · Brasileirão Série A | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santos · Brasileirão Série A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense · Brasileirão Série A | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Atletico-MG · Copa do Brasil | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama · Brasileirão Série A | 1-3 | L |
Sao Paulo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Santos · Brasileirão Série A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Internacional · Brasileirão Série A | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Boca Juniors · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Palmeiras · Brasileirão Série A | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Boca Juniors · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 6 | 45 | 28 |
| Sao Paulo | 10 | 36 | 28 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Sao Paulo 4-1 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Cruzeiro 1-0 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Sao Paulo 1-1 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| Jan 16, 2025 | Cruzeiro 1-1 Sao Paulo | Club Friendlies |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Cruzeiro 0-1 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Cruzeiro
- Fabricio Bruno (out)
- Gabriel Pec (out)
- L. Sinisterra (out)
- K. Arroyo (doubtful)
- Kenji (doubtful)
- N. Villarreal (doubtful)
Sao Paulo
- N. Bosshardt (out)
- Buta (out)
- Djhordney (out)
- D. Duarte (out)
- Jonathan Calleri (suspended)
- Lucas Moura (out)
- Lucca Marques (doubtful)
- P. dos Santos (out)
Most regular starters
Cruzeiro
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- Fagner3/4
- Gabriel Rojas3/4
- Gerson3/4
- João Marcelo3/4
- Kaio Jorge3/4
- Keny Arroyo3/4
- Matheus Henrique3/4
- Matheus Pereira3/4
- Otávio Costa3/4
- Fabrício Bruno2/4
- Jonathan Jesus2/4
Sao Paulo
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Artur4/5
- Luciano4/5
- Pablo Maia3/5
- Rafael3/5
- Carlos Coronel2/5
- D. Duarte2/5
- Djhordney2/5
- Iago2/5
- Iago Borduchi2/5
- Jonathan Calleri2/5
- Lucas Ramon2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Remo 1-1 GremioOct 7, 2026
- Internacional 2-1 CorinthiansOct 7, 2026
- RB Bragantino 1-1 MirassolOct 7, 2026
- Vitoria 4-0 Chapecoense-scOct 8, 2026
- Botafogo 1-2 Vasco DA GamaOct 8, 2026
- Santos 2-2 FlamengoOct 8, 2026
- Atletico Paranaense 2-2 Atletico-MGOct 9, 2026
- Fluminense 4-0 CoritibaOct 9, 2026
- Palmeiras 1-0 BahiaOct 9, 2026
- Vasco DA Gama 0-0 RemoOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Cruzeiro a 54% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sao Paulo 20%. Cruzeiro are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
1-0 (14.8%), followed by 1-1 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (9.7%) and 2-1 (9.1%).
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
The probability that both Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo score is 43%. Cruzeiro have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sao Paulo 22%.
How many goals should we expect in Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
The model expects 2.33 goals (1.52 for Cruzeiro, 0.81 for Sao Paulo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 68%, over 2.5 goals 41%, over 3.5 goals 21%.
When and where is Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo played?
Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 01:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 29. Venue: Estádio Mineirão, Belo Horizonte.
What form are Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo in?
Cruzeiro: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 9 conceded). Sao Paulo: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Cruzeiro, 2 for Sao Paulo and 2 draws. The most recent ended Sao Paulo 4-1 Cruzeiro (Apr 4, 2026).
What was the Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Cruzeiro 2-0 Sao Paulo. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Cruzeiro was the model's favourite outcome (54%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (11.2%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (41%): correct.
How is the Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.52 for Cruzeiro, 0.81 for Sao Paulo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Cruzeiro predictions
- All Sao Paulo predictions
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology