Brasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Thursday, October 8, 2026, 01:30 (UK time)
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Brasileirão Série A, matchday 29: Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo kicks off on Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 01:30 (UK time). Venue: Estádio Mineirão, Belo Horizonte. The edge goes to Cruzeiro (56%), ahead of the draw (20%) and a Sao Paulo win (24%). The most likely correct score is 2-1 (9.3%), ahead of 1-1 (8.4%) and 3-1 (6.8%).
Cruzeiro have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Sao Paulo have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Cruzeiro score 1.40 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Sao Paulo score 1.00 and concede 1.00. In the table, Cruzeiro sit 6th with 45 points from 28 games, Sao Paulo 11th with 36 points from 27. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Cruzeiro have averaged 1.85 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.67 for Sao Paulo.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cruzeiro, 1 for Sao Paulo and 0 draws. The most recent ended Sao Paulo 4-1 Cruzeiro (Apr 4, 2026). Cruzeiro out or doubtful: Gabriel Pec, Kenji, L. Romero, L. Sinisterra and N. Villarreal. Sao Paulo: D. Bobadilla, Lucas Moura, Lucca Marques, Luis Osorio (suspended) and Pablo Maia (suspended). In double chance terms, "Cruzeiro or draw" stands at 76%, "Sao Paulo or draw" at 44% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Cruzeiro are tipped by our AI model in this Cruzeiro v Sao Paulo (56%). In the table, Cruzeiro (6th, 45 pts) host Sao Paulo (11th, 36 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Cruzeiro – Sao Paulo. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cruzeiro 2-1 Sao Paulo | 9.3% |
| Cruzeiro 1-1 Sao Paulo | 8.4% |
| Cruzeiro 3-1 Sao Paulo | 6.8% |
| Cruzeiro 2-0 Sao Paulo | 6.6% |
| Cruzeiro 2-2 Sao Paulo | 6.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.60 goals in total (2.20 for Cruzeiro, 1.40 for Sao Paulo): over 2.5 goals has a 70% probability and both teams to score 67%. Everything points to an open game. Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet in 25% of scenarios, Sao Paulo in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Cruzeiro expected goals | 2.20 |
| Sao Paulo expected goals | 1.40 |
| Both teams to score | 67% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% |
| Cruzeiro clean sheet | 25% |
| Sao Paulo clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Cruzeiro
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santos · Brasileirão Série A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense · Brasileirão Série A | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Atletico-MG · Copa do Brasil | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama · Brasileirão Série A | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Atletico-MG · Copa do Brasil | 1-1 | D |
Sao Paulo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Boca Juniors · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Palmeiras · Brasileirão Série A | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Boca Juniors · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Atletico-MG · Brasileirão Série A | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | RB Bragantino · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 6 | 45 | 28 |
| Sao Paulo | 11 | 36 | 27 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Sao Paulo 4-1 Cruzeiro | Brasileirão Série A |
Out and doubtful
Cruzeiro
- Gabriel Pec (out)
- Kenji (out)
- L. Romero (out)
- L. Sinisterra (out)
- N. Villarreal (out)
Sao Paulo
- D. Bobadilla (out)
- Lucas Moura (out)
- Lucca Marques (out)
- Luis Osorio (suspended)
- Pablo Maia (suspended)
Most regular starters
Cruzeiro
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- Otavio Costa4/4
- Fabricio Bruno3/4
- Fagner3/4
- G. Rojas3/4
- Gerson3/4
- Joao Marcelo3/4
- K. Arroyo3/4
- Kaio Jorge3/4
- L. Romero3/4
- Matheus Henrique3/4
- Matheus Pereira3/4
Sao Paulo
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Artur4/5
- Luciano4/5
- Rafael4/5
- Sabino4/5
- Danielzinho3/5
- Domingos Duarte3/5
- Lucas Ramon3/5
- Marcos Antônio3/5
- Robert Arboleda3/5
- Gustavo Santana2/5
- Iago Borduchi2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Remo – GremioOct 7, 2026
- Internacional – CorinthiansOct 7, 2026
- RB Bragantino – MirassolOct 7, 2026
- Vitoria – Chapecoense-scOct 8, 2026
- Botafogo – Vasco DA GamaOct 8, 2026
- Santos – FlamengoOct 8, 2026
- Atletico Paranaense – Atletico-MGOct 9, 2026
- Fluminense – CoritibaOct 9, 2026
- Palmeiras – BahiaOct 9, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo prediction?
Our AI gives Cruzeiro a 56% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sao Paulo 24%. Cruzeiro are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
2-1 (9.3%), followed by 1-1 (8.4%), 3-1 (6.8%), 2-0 (6.6%) and 2-2 (6.5%).
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
The probability that both Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo score is 67%. Cruzeiro have a 25% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sao Paulo 11%.
How many goals should we expect in Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
The model expects 3.60 goals (2.20 for Cruzeiro, 1.40 for Sao Paulo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 87%, over 2.5 goals 70%, over 3.5 goals 49%.
When and where is Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo played?
Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 01:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 29. Venue: Estádio Mineirão, Belo Horizonte.
What form are Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo in?
Cruzeiro: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 9 conceded). Sao Paulo: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cruzeiro, 1 for Sao Paulo and 0 draws. The most recent ended Sao Paulo 4-1 Cruzeiro (Apr 4, 2026).
How is the Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.20 for Cruzeiro, 1.40 for Sao Paulo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Cruzeiro predictions
- All Sao Paulo predictions
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology