Brasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Thursday, October 8, 2026, 23:30 (UK time)
Santos vs Flamengo prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Brasileirão Série A, matchday 29: the Santos vs Flamengo match is scheduled on Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 23:30 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Santos. Our model makes Flamengo clear favourites: a 67% chance of winning, against 17% for the draw and 16% for Santos. On the correct score, 1-2 comes out on top (9.0%), followed by 1-3 (7.9%) and 0-2 (7.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Santos have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 8. Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 8 and conceding 3. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Santos score 2.20 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Flamengo score 1.60 and concede 0.60. In the table, Santos sit 8th with 38 points from 27 games, Flamengo 1st with 60 points from 28. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Santos have averaged 1.36 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.36 for Flamengo.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Santos, 1 for Flamengo and 0 draws. The most recent ended Flamengo 3-1 Santos (Apr 5, 2026). Santos out or doubtful: A. Barreal, Coutinho, Everton (suspended), Gabriel Brazao, Neymar, Vinicius Lira and Willian Arao. Flamengo: Evertton Araujo, Lucas Paqueta (suspended), E. Pulgar (suspended) and Samuel Lino (suspended). In double chance terms, "Santos or draw" stands at 33%, "Flamengo or draw" at 84% and "no draw" at 83%.
In short : Flamengo are tipped by our AI model in this Santos v Flamengo (67%). In the table, Santos (8th, 38 pts) host Flamengo (1st, 60 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Santos – Flamengo. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Santos 1-2 Flamengo | 9.0% |
| Santos 1-3 Flamengo | 7.9% |
| Santos 0-2 Flamengo | 7.4% |
| Santos 1-1 Flamengo | 6.9% |
| Santos 0-3 Flamengo | 6.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.22 expected goals for Santos and 2.62 for Flamengo, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 74% and "both teams to score" at 65%. Goals look likely in this one. Santos keep a clean sheet in 7% of scenarios, Flamengo in 30%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Santos expected goals | 1.22 |
| Flamengo expected goals | 2.62 |
| Both teams to score | 65% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% |
| Santos clean sheet | 7% |
| Flamengo clean sheet | 30% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Santos
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Remo · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Atletico-MG · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2-4 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Cruzeiro · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Atletico-MG · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Internacional · Brasileirão Série A | 3-2 | W |
Flamengo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | RB Bragantino · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Independiente del Valle · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Corinthians · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Independiente del Valle · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Remo · Brasileirão Série A | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | 8 | 38 | 27 |
| Flamengo | 1 | 60 | 28 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Flamengo 3-1 Santos | Brasileirão Série A |
Out and doubtful
Santos
- A. Barreal (out)
- Coutinho (out)
- Everton (suspended)
- Gabriel Brazao (out)
- Neymar (out)
- Vinicius Lira (out)
- Willian Arao (out)
Flamengo
- Evertton Araujo (out)
- Lucas Paqueta (suspended)
- E. Pulgar (suspended)
- Samuel Lino (suspended)
Most regular starters
Santos
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Gabriel Bontempo5/5
- Luan Peres5/5
- B. Rollheiser4/5
- G. Escobar4/5
- Gabriel Barbosa4/5
- Rodinei4/5
- C. Oliva3/5
- Gabriel Brazao3/5
- Gustavo Henrique3/5
- Rony3/5
- Willian Arao3/5
Flamengo
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Rossi5/5
- Ayrton Lucas5/5
- G. de Arrascaeta4/5
- J. Carrascal4/5
- Jorginho4/5
- Samuel Lino4/5
- E. Pulgar3/5
- Emerson Royal3/5
- Léo Ortiz3/5
- Léo Pereira3/5
- Pedro3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Remo – GremioOct 7, 2026
- Internacional – CorinthiansOct 7, 2026
- RB Bragantino – MirassolOct 7, 2026
- Vitoria – Chapecoense-scOct 8, 2026
- Botafogo – Vasco DA GamaOct 8, 2026
- Cruzeiro – Sao PauloOct 8, 2026
- Atletico Paranaense – Atletico-MGOct 9, 2026
- Fluminense – CoritibaOct 9, 2026
- Palmeiras – BahiaOct 9, 2026
- Vasco DA Gama – RemoOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Santos vs Flamengo prediction?
Our AI gives Santos a 16% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Flamengo 67%. Flamengo are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Santos vs Flamengo?
1-2 (9.0%), followed by 1-3 (7.9%), 0-2 (7.4%), 1-1 (6.9%) and 0-3 (6.4%).
Will both teams score in Santos vs Flamengo?
The probability that both Santos and Flamengo score is 65%. Santos have a 7% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Flamengo 30%.
How many goals should we expect in Santos vs Flamengo?
The model expects 3.84 goals (1.22 for Santos, 2.62 for Flamengo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 90%, over 2.5 goals 74%, over 3.5 goals 54%.
When and where is Santos vs Flamengo played?
Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 23:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 29. Venue: Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Santos.
What form are Santos and Flamengo in?
Santos: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 8 conceded). Flamengo: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Flamengo?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Santos, 1 for Flamengo and 0 draws. The most recent ended Flamengo 3-1 Santos (Apr 5, 2026).
How is the Santos vs Flamengo prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.22 for Santos, 2.62 for Flamengo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Santos predictions
- All Flamengo predictions
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology