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Brasileirão Série ABrasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Friday, October 9, 2026, 01:30 (UK time)

Palmeiras vs Bahia prediction: correct score and AI tips

PalmeirasPalmeiras–BahiaBahia

Match analysis

Brasileirão Série A, matchday 29: Palmeiras vs Bahia kicks off on Friday, October 9, 2026 at 01:30 (UK time). Venue: Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo. The edge goes to Bahia (58%), ahead of the draw (20%) and a Palmeiras win (22%). The most likely correct score is 1-2 (9.4%), ahead of 1-1 (8.2%) and 1-3 (7.1%).

Over their last 5 matches, Palmeiras have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Bahia have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with Bahia. On average Palmeiras score 1.00 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Bahia score 2.20 and concede 1.40. In the table, Palmeiras sit 2nd with 57 points from 28 games, Bahia 5th with 46 points from 28. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Palmeiras have averaged 1.11 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.73 for Bahia.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Palmeiras, 0 for Bahia and 0 draws. The most recent ended Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras (Apr 5, 2026). Palmeiras out or doubtful: Jefte, Murilo (suspended) and Paulinho. Bahia: Leo Vieira, Michel Araujo and C. Olivera (suspended). In double chance terms, "Palmeiras or draw" stands at 42%, "Bahia or draw" at 78% and "no draw" at 80%.

In short : Bahia are tipped by our AI model in this Palmeiras v Bahia (58%). On recent form, Palmeiras have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Bahia are in good shape (4 wins in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

22%
Palmeiras (Win)
20%
Draw
58%
Bahia (Win)

Double chance

42%
Palmeiras or draw
78%
Bahia or draw
80%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Palmeiras – Bahia. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Palmeiras 1-2 Bahia9.4%
Palmeiras 1-1 Bahia8.2%
Palmeiras 1-3 Bahia7.1%
Palmeiras 0-2 Bahia7.0%
Palmeiras 2-2 Bahia6.2%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.60 goals in total (1.33 for Palmeiras, 2.27 for Bahia): over 2.5 goals has a 70% probability and both teams to score 66%. Everything points to an open game. Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 10% of scenarios, Bahia in 26%.

Probability
Palmeiras expected goals1.33
Bahia expected goals2.27
Both teams to score66%
Over 1.5 goals87%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Over 3.5 goals49%
Palmeiras clean sheet10%
Bahia clean sheet26%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Palmeiras

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026Gremio · Brasileirão Série A0-0D
Sep 16, 2026LDU de Quito · CONMEBOL Libertadores2-3L
Sep 12, 2026Sao Paulo · Brasileirão Série A2-0W
Sep 9, 2026LDU de Quito · CONMEBOL Libertadores1-0W
Sep 6, 2026Botafogo · Brasileirão Série A0-0D

Bahia

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026Atletico Paranaense · Brasileirão Série A1-2L
Sep 15, 2026Remo · Brasileirão Série A2-1W
Sep 5, 2026RB Bragantino · Brasileirão Série A3-2W
Aug 30, 2026Internacional · Brasileirão Série A3-2W
Aug 23, 2026Vitoria · Brasileirão Série A2-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Palmeiras25728
Bahia54628

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 5, 2026Bahia 1-2 PalmeirasBrasileirão Série A

Out and doubtful

Palmeiras

  • Jefte (out)
  • Murilo (suspended)
  • Paulinho (out)

Bahia

  • Leo Vieira (out)
  • Michel Araujo (out)
  • C. Olivera (suspended)

Most regular starters

Palmeiras

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Giay5/5
  • Carlos Miguel5/5
  • J. Piquerez5/5
  • Lucas Evangelista5/5
  • A. Barboza4/5
  • Andreas Pereira4/5
  • J. Arias4/5
  • Marlon Freitas4/5
  • G. Gomez3/5
  • J. Lopez3/5
  • Murilo3/5

Bahia

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • David Duarte5/5
  • Erick Pulga5/5
  • Luciano Juba5/5
  • A. Veliz4/5
  • C. Olivera4/5
  • Erick4/5
  • Nicolas Acevedo4/5
  • Rodrigo4/5
  • Ronaldo Strada4/5
  • R. Gomez3/5
  • S. Ramos3/5

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See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

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Frequently asked questions

What is the Palmeiras vs Bahia prediction?

Our AI gives Palmeiras a 22% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Bahia 58%. Bahia are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for Palmeiras vs Bahia?

1-2 (9.4%), followed by 1-1 (8.2%), 1-3 (7.1%), 0-2 (7.0%) and 2-2 (6.2%).

Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Bahia?

The probability that both Palmeiras and Bahia score is 66%. Palmeiras have a 10% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bahia 26%.

How many goals should we expect in Palmeiras vs Bahia?

The model expects 3.60 goals (1.33 for Palmeiras, 2.27 for Bahia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 87%, over 2.5 goals 70%, over 3.5 goals 49%.

When and where is Palmeiras vs Bahia played?

Friday, October 9, 2026 at 01:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 29. Venue: Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo.

What form are Palmeiras and Bahia in?

Palmeiras: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 3 conceded). Bahia: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Bahia?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Palmeiras, 0 for Bahia and 0 draws. The most recent ended Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras (Apr 5, 2026).

How is the Palmeiras vs Bahia prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.33 for Palmeiras, 2.27 for Bahia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained