Brasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Thursday, October 8, 2026, 00:30 (UK time)
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Botafogo take on Vasco DA Gama on Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 00:30 (UK time), a Brasileirão Série A, matchday 29 fixture. Venue: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro. It is a tight call: 39% for Botafogo, 32% for the draw and 29% for Vasco DA Gama. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (15.7%), followed by 0-0 (15.3%) and 1-1 (13.4%).
Botafogo have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Vasco DA Gama have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 2. Vasco DA Gama therefore arrive in far better shape than Botafogo. On average Botafogo score 0.80 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Vasco DA Gama score 1.80 and concede 0.40. In the table, Botafogo sit 12th with 35 points from 28 games, Vasco DA Gama 16th with 31 points from 27. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Botafogo have averaged 0.93 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.94 for Vasco DA Gama.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Botafogo, 1 for Vasco DA Gama and 0 draws. The most recent ended Vasco DA Gama 1-2 Botafogo (Apr 5, 2026). Botafogo out or doubtful: J. Barrera, K. Barria, Kaio Pantaleao and Matheus Martins. Vasco DA Gama: Brenner, Mateus Carvalho and Tche Tche (suspended). In double chance terms, "Botafogo or draw" stands at 71%, "Vasco DA Gama or draw" at 61% and "no draw" at 68%.
In short : Our model backs Botafogo to edge Vasco DA Gama (39% probability). On recent form, Botafogo have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Vasco DA Gama have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Botafogo – Vasco DA Gama. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (15.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 66% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Botafogo 1-0 Vasco DA Gama | 15.7% |
| Botafogo 0-0 Vasco DA Gama | 15.3% |
| Botafogo 1-1 Vasco DA Gama | 13.4% |
| Botafogo 0-1 Vasco DA Gama | 13.0% |
| Botafogo 2-0 Vasco DA Gama | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.03 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.85 for Vasco DA Gama, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 29% and "both teams to score" at 37%. Few goals are expected here. Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 43% of scenarios, Vasco DA Gama in 36%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Botafogo expected goals | 1.03 |
| Vasco DA Gama expected goals | 0.85 |
| Both teams to score | 37% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% |
| Botafogo clean sheet | 43% |
| Vasco DA Gama clean sheet | 36% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Botafogo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Mirassol · Brasileirão Série A | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Gremio · Brasileirão Série A | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | RB Bragantino · Brasileirão Série A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Palmeiras · Brasileirão Série A | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Flamengo · Brasileirão Série A | 0-3 | L |
Vasco DA Gama
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Coritiba · Brasileirão Série A | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Santa Fe · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Gremio · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Santa Fe · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fluminense · Brasileirão Série A | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 12 | 35 | 28 |
| Vasco DA Gama | 16 | 31 | 27 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama 1-2 Botafogo | Brasileirão Série A |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama 2-0 Botafogo | Brazilian Super Cup |
Out and doubtful
Botafogo
- J. Barrera (out)
- K. Barria (out)
- Kaio Pantaleao (out)
- Matheus Martins (out)
Vasco DA Gama
- Brenner (out)
- Mateus Carvalho (out)
- Tche Tche (suspended)
Most regular starters
Botafogo
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Danilo Santos5/5
- Gabriel Batista5/5
- Huguinho5/5
- Vitinho5/5
- A. Montoro4/5
- Alex Telles4/5
- Arthur Cabral4/5
- N. Ferraresi4/5
- L. Monzon3/5
- Danilo Pereira2/5
- Edenilson2/5
Vasco DA Gama
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Robert Renan4/5
- S. Sosa4/5
- A. Saldivia3/5
- Bruno Duarte3/5
- F. Colidio3/5
- Leo Jardim3/5
- Lucas Piton3/5
- Paulo Henrique3/5
- Thiago Mendes3/5
- A. Gomez2/5
- Adson2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Remo – GremioOct 7, 2026
- Internacional – CorinthiansOct 7, 2026
- RB Bragantino – MirassolOct 7, 2026
- Vitoria – Chapecoense-scOct 8, 2026
- Cruzeiro – Sao PauloOct 8, 2026
- Santos – FlamengoOct 8, 2026
- Atletico Paranaense – Atletico-MGOct 9, 2026
- Fluminense – CoritibaOct 9, 2026
- Palmeiras – BahiaOct 9, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama prediction?
Our AI gives Botafogo a 39% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Vasco DA Gama 29%. Botafogo are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
1-0 (15.7%), followed by 0-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (13.4%), 0-1 (13.0%) and 2-0 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
The probability that both Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama score is 37%. Botafogo have a 43% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Vasco DA Gama 36%.
How many goals should we expect in Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
The model expects 1.88 goals (1.03 for Botafogo, 0.85 for Vasco DA Gama). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 56%, over 2.5 goals 29%, over 3.5 goals 12%.
When and where is Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama played?
Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 00:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 29. Venue: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro.
What form are Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama in?
Botafogo: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 8 conceded). Vasco DA Gama: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 2 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Botafogo, 1 for Vasco DA Gama and 0 draws. The most recent ended Vasco DA Gama 1-2 Botafogo (Apr 5, 2026).
How is the Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.03 for Botafogo, 0.85 for Vasco DA Gama) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Botafogo predictions
- All Vasco DA Gama predictions
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology