Brasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 21:30 (UK time)
Gremio vs Internacional: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Gremio 1-1 Internacional. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Internacional (51%), while a draw was rated at only 31%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (11.9%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (28%): correct.
Match analysis
Gremio vs Internacional was played on Sunday, October 11, 2026 (Brasileirão Série A, matchday 30). Venue: Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre. Before kick-off, our model gave Gremio a 18% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Internacional 51%. The most likely correct score is 0-1 (19.8%), ahead of 0-0 (16.2%) and 0-2 (12.1%).
Gremio have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Internacional have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with Internacional. On average Gremio score 0.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Internacional score 1.40 and concede 1.80. In the table, Gremio sit 18th with 30 points from 29 games, Internacional 17th with 31 points from 29. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Gremio have averaged 0.57 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.29 for Internacional.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Gremio, 0 for Internacional and 3 draws. The most recent ended Gremio 3-1 Internacional (Sep 4, 2026). Gremio out or doubtful: J. Cabral, Diego Caito, Gustavo Martins (suspended), Marlon, Matheus Nascimento, E. Noriega (suspended), Pedro Gabriel and Dodi (suspended). Internacional: Kayky, S. Rochet, A. Sanabria, F. Torres, Victor Gabriel (suspended) and Juninho (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Gremio or draw" stands at 49%, "Internacional or draw" at 82% and "no draw" at 69%.
In short : Our model backs Internacional to edge Gremio (51% probability). On recent form, Gremio have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5 while Internacional have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Gremio – Internacional. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (19.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 70% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Gremio 0-1 Internacional | 19.8% |
| Gremio 0-0 Internacional | 16.2% |
| Gremio 0-2 Internacional | 12.1% |
| Gremio 1-1 Internacional | 11.9% |
| Gremio 1-0 Internacional | 9.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 1.82 goals in total (0.60 for Gremio, 1.22 for Internacional): over 2.5 goals has a 28% probability and both teams to score 32%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Gremio keep a clean sheet in 30% of scenarios, Internacional in 55%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Gremio expected goals | 0.60 |
| Internacional expected goals | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | 32% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% |
| Gremio clean sheet | 30% |
| Internacional clean sheet | 55% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Gremio
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Remo · Brasileirão Série A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Palmeiras · Brasileirão Série A | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Botafogo · Brasileirão Série A | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama · Brasileirão Série A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Vitoria · Brasileirão Série A | 0-1 | L |
Internacional
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Corinthians · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sao Paulo · Brasileirão Série A | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Santos · Brasileirão Série A | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Gremio · Copa do Brasil | 1-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio | 18 | 30 | 29 |
| Internacional | 17 | 31 | 29 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | Gremio 3-1 Internacional | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Internacional 0-0 Gremio | Copa Do Brasil |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Internacional 0-0 Gremio | Serie A |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Internacional 1-1 Gremio | Gaúcho - 1 |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Gremio 3-0 Internacional | Gaúcho - 1 |
Out and doubtful
Gremio
- J. Cabral (out)
- Diego Caito (out)
- Gustavo Martins (suspended)
- Marlon (out)
- Matheus Nascimento (out)
- E. Noriega (suspended)
- Pedro Gabriel (out)
- Dodi (suspended)
Internacional
- Kayky (out)
- S. Rochet (out)
- A. Sanabria (out)
- F. Torres (out)
- Victor Gabriel (suspended)
- Juninho (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Gremio
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Wallace5/5
- Weverton5/5
- M. Villasanti4/5
- Carlos Vinicius3/5
- Diego Caito3/5
- E. Noriega3/5
- Gustavo Martins3/5
- Pedro Gabriel3/5
- C. Pavon2/5
- Caio Paulista2/5
- Carlos Vinícius2/5
Internacional
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Alan Patrick5/5
- Bruno Gomes5/5
- Vitinho4/5
- Bruno Henrique3/5
- G. Mercado3/5
- Matheus Bahia3/5
- Matheus Cunha3/5
- Thiago Maia3/5
- A. Bernabéi2/5
- Anthoni2/5
- Gabriel Mercado2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Fluminense 4-0 CoritibaOct 9, 2026
- Vasco DA Gama 0-0 RemoOct 10, 2026
- Sao Paulo 2-1 VitoriaOct 11, 2026
- Atletico-MG 2-1 SantosOct 11, 2026
- Flamengo 1-0 FluminenseOct 11, 2026
- Palmeiras 4-1 CorinthiansOct 11, 2026
- Bahia 1-0 MirassolOct 11, 2026
- Coritiba 1-1 BotafogoOct 12, 2026
- Chapecoense-sc 1-4 Atletico ParanaenseOct 12, 2026
- RB Bragantino 4-2 CruzeiroOct 13, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Gremio vs Internacional prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Gremio a 18% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Internacional 51%. Internacional are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Gremio vs Internacional?
0-1 (19.8%), followed by 0-0 (16.2%), 0-2 (12.1%), 1-1 (11.9%) and 1-0 (9.7%).
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Internacional?
The probability that both Gremio and Internacional score is 32%. Gremio have a 30% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Internacional 55%.
How many goals should we expect in Gremio vs Internacional?
The model expects 1.82 goals (0.60 for Gremio, 1.22 for Internacional). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 54%, over 2.5 goals 28%, over 3.5 goals 11%.
When and where is Gremio vs Internacional played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 21:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 30. Venue: Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre.
What form are Gremio and Internacional in?
Gremio: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 7 conceded). Internacional: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Internacional?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Gremio, 0 for Internacional and 3 draws. The most recent ended Gremio 3-1 Internacional (Sep 4, 2026).
What was the Gremio vs Internacional result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Gremio 1-1 Internacional. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Internacional (51%), while a draw was rated at only 31%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (11.9%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (28%): correct.
How is the Gremio vs Internacional prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.60 for Gremio, 1.22 for Internacional) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Gremio predictions
- All Internacional predictions
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Gremio cards
- Internacional cards
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology