Brasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 23:30 (UK time)
Bahia vs Mirassol: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Bahia 1-0 Mirassol. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Bahia at 75%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (4.8%), behind 3-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (64%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (78%): missed.
Match analysis
Bahia and Mirassol met on Sunday, October 11, 2026, a Brasileirão Série A, matchday 30 fixture. Venue: Arena Fonte Nova, El Salvador. Before kick-off, our model gave Bahia a 75% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Mirassol 11%. On the correct score, 3-1 comes out on top (8.2%), followed by 2-1 (8.2%) and 3-0 (7.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Bahia have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Mirassol are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 4. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Bahia score 1.80 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Mirassol score 2.20 and concede 0.80. In the table, Bahia sit 6th with 46 points from 29 games, Mirassol 15th with 33 points from 29. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Bahia have averaged 2.32 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.46 for Mirassol.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Bahia, 1 for Mirassol and 1 draw. The most recent ended Mirassol 1-2 Bahia (Apr 11, 2026). Bahia out or doubtful: Leo Vieira and Nicolas Acevedo (suspended). Mirassol: Jose Aldo, Negueba and Joao Victor (suspended). In double chance terms, "Bahia or draw" stands at 89%, "Mirassol or draw" at 25% and "no draw" at 86%.
In short : Our model backs Bahia to edge Mirassol (75% probability). In the table, Bahia (6th, 46 pts) host Mirassol (15th, 33 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 78%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Bahia – Mirassol. 3-1 is the single most likely scoreline (8.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 37% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bahia 3-1 Mirassol | 8.2% |
| Bahia 2-1 Mirassol | 8.2% |
| Bahia 3-0 Mirassol | 7.2% |
| Bahia 2-0 Mirassol | 7.2% |
| Bahia 4-1 Mirassol | 6.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 3.01 expected goals for Bahia and 1.13 for Mirassol, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 78% and "both teams to score" at 64%. Goals look likely in this one. Bahia keep a clean sheet in 32% of scenarios, Mirassol in 5%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Bahia expected goals | 3.01 |
| Mirassol expected goals | 1.13 |
| Both teams to score | 64% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 59% |
| Bahia clean sheet | 32% |
| Mirassol clean sheet | 5% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Bahia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Palmeiras · Brasileirão Série A | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense · Brasileirão Série A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Remo · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | RB Bragantino · Brasileirão Série A | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Internacional · Brasileirão Série A | 3-2 | W |
Mirassol
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | RB Bragantino · Brasileirão Série A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Uberlandia · Club Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Botafogo · Brasileirão Série A | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Vitoria · Brasileirão Série A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Coritiba · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 6 | 46 | 29 |
| Mirassol | 15 | 33 | 29 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Mirassol 1-2 Bahia | Serie A |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Mirassol 5-1 Bahia | Serie A |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Bahia 1-1 Mirassol | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Bahia
- Leo Vieira (out)
- Nicolas Acevedo (suspended)
Mirassol
- Jose Aldo (out)
- Negueba (out)
- Joao Victor (suspended)
Most regular starters
Bahia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- David Duarte5/5
- Erick Pulga5/5
- Luciano Juba5/5
- Rodrigo Nestor4/5
- Ronaldo4/5
- Alejo Véliz3/5
- Erick3/5
- Kanu3/5
- Nicolás Acevedo3/5
- C. Olivera2/5
- Cristian Olivera2/5
Mirassol
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- Bruno Santos4/4
- Eduardo4/4
- Igor Formiga4/4
- Reinaldo4/4
- Willian Machado4/4
- Chico3/4
- Denilson3/4
- João Victor3/4
- Alesson2/4
- Alex Muralha2/4
- Gustavo Silva2/4
Other matches in this competition
- Fluminense 4-0 CoritibaOct 9, 2026
- Vasco DA Gama 0-0 RemoOct 10, 2026
- Sao Paulo 2-1 VitoriaOct 11, 2026
- Atletico-MG 2-1 SantosOct 11, 2026
- Flamengo 1-0 FluminenseOct 11, 2026
- Gremio 1-1 InternacionalOct 11, 2026
- Palmeiras 4-1 CorinthiansOct 11, 2026
- Coritiba 1-1 BotafogoOct 12, 2026
- Chapecoense-sc 1-4 Atletico ParanaenseOct 12, 2026
- RB Bragantino 4-2 CruzeiroOct 13, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bahia vs Mirassol prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Bahia a 75% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Mirassol 11%. Bahia are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Bahia vs Mirassol?
3-1 (8.2%), followed by 2-1 (8.2%), 3-0 (7.2%), 2-0 (7.2%) and 4-1 (6.2%).
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Mirassol?
The probability that both Bahia and Mirassol score is 64%. Bahia have a 32% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Mirassol 5%.
How many goals should we expect in Bahia vs Mirassol?
The model expects 4.14 goals (3.01 for Bahia, 1.13 for Mirassol). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 92%, over 2.5 goals 78%, over 3.5 goals 59%.
When and where is Bahia vs Mirassol played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 23:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 30. Venue: Arena Fonte Nova, El Salvador.
What form are Bahia and Mirassol in?
Bahia: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 8 conceded). Mirassol: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Mirassol?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Bahia, 1 for Mirassol and 1 draw. The most recent ended Mirassol 1-2 Bahia (Apr 11, 2026).
What was the Bahia vs Mirassol result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Bahia 1-0 Mirassol. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Bahia at 75%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (4.8%), behind 3-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (64%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (78%): missed.
How is the Bahia vs Mirassol prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.01 for Bahia, 1.13 for Mirassol) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Bahia predictions
- All Mirassol predictions
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Bahia cards
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology