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Brasileirão Série ABrasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Monday, October 12, 2026, 23:30 (UK time)

Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense: 1-4 result and AI prediction review

Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc1 – 4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-2

Final score: Chapecoense-sc 1-4 Atletico Paranaense. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Atletico Paranaense was the model's favourite outcome (71%). The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (5.4%), behind 1-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (61%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (72%): correct.

Match analysis

Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense was played on Monday, October 12, 2026 (Brasileirão Série A, matchday 30). Venue: Arena Condá, Chapeco. Before kick-off, our model gave Chapecoense-sc a 13% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Atletico Paranaense 71%. The most likely correct score is 1-2 (9.1%), ahead of 0-2 (8.5%) and 1-3 (8.1%).

Chapecoense-sc have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 9. Atletico Paranaense have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 11 and conceding 12. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Chapecoense-sc score 1.00 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Atletico Paranaense score 2.20 and concede 2.40. In the table, Chapecoense-sc sit 20th with 18 points from 28 games, Atletico Paranaense 4th with 50 points from 29. 16 places separate the two sides.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Chapecoense-sc, 2 for Atletico Paranaense and 3 draws. The most recent ended Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Chapecoense-sc (Apr 12, 2026). Chapecoense-sc out or doubtful: Heitor, Max Alves, Rafael Carvalheira, Robert Conceicao, Vinicius Balieiro and Fernando (suspended). Atletico Paranaense: F. Aguirre (suspended), G. Benavidez and Dantas. In double chance terms, "Chapecoense-sc or draw" stands at 29%, "Atletico Paranaense or draw" at 87% and "no draw" at 84%.

In short : Our model backs Atletico Paranaense to edge Chapecoense-sc (71% probability). In the table, Chapecoense-sc (20th, 18 pts) host Atletico Paranaense (4th, 50 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 72%).

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

13%
Chapecoense-sc (Win)
16%
Draw
71%
Atletico Paranaense (Win)

Double chance

29%
Chapecoense-sc or draw
87%
Atletico Paranaense or draw
84%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Chapecoense-sc – Atletico Paranaense. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 40% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Chapecoense-sc 1-2 Atletico Paranaense9.1%
Chapecoense-sc 0-2 Atletico Paranaense8.5%
Chapecoense-sc 1-3 Atletico Paranaense8.1%
Chapecoense-sc 0-3 Atletico Paranaense7.5%
Chapecoense-sc 1-1 Atletico Paranaense6.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.73 goals in total (1.07 for Chapecoense-sc, 2.66 for Atletico Paranaense): over 2.5 goals has a 72% probability and both teams to score 61%. Everything points to an open game. Chapecoense-sc keep a clean sheet in 7% of scenarios, Atletico Paranaense in 34%.

Probability
Chapecoense-sc expected goals1.07
Atletico Paranaense expected goals2.66
Both teams to score61%
Over 1.5 goals89%
Over 2.5 goals72%
Over 3.5 goals51%
Chapecoense-sc clean sheet7%
Atletico Paranaense clean sheet34%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Chapecoense-sc

DateOpponentScore
Oct 8, 2026Vitoria · Brasileirão Série A0-4L
Sep 26, 2026Atletico Nacional · Club Friendlies1-1D
Sep 19, 2026Atletico-MG · Brasileirão Série A1-1D
Sep 12, 2026Internacional · Brasileirão Série A1-2L
Sep 6, 2026Corinthians · Brasileirão Série A2-1W

Atletico Paranaense

DateOpponentScore
Oct 9, 2026Atletico-MG · Brasileirão Série A2-2D
Sep 20, 2026Bahia · Brasileirão Série A2-1W
Sep 12, 2026Coritiba · Brasileirão Série A3-3D
Sep 6, 2026Cruzeiro · Brasileirão Série A1-3L
Aug 30, 2026Fluminense · Brasileirão Série A3-3D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Chapecoense-sc201828
Atletico Paranaense45029

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 12, 2026Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Chapecoense-scSerie A
Sep 17, 2025Chapecoense-sc 2-3 Atletico ParanaenseSerie B
May 9, 2025Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Chapecoense-scSerie B
Oct 13, 2021Chapecoense-sc 1-1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
Jun 28, 2021Atletico Paranaense 2-2 Chapecoense-scSerie A

Out and doubtful

Chapecoense-sc

  • Heitor (out)
  • Max Alves (out)
  • Rafael Carvalheira (out)
  • Robert Conceicao (out)
  • Vinicius Balieiro (out)
  • Fernando (suspended)

Atletico Paranaense

  • F. Aguirre (suspended)
  • G. Benavidez (out)
  • Dantas (out)

Most regular starters

Chapecoense-sc

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Anderson5/5
  • Yago Felipe5/5
  • Camilo4/5
  • Kauan4/5
  • Marcinho4/5
  • Bruno Pacheco3/5
  • Eduardo Doma3/5
  • Giovanni Augusto3/5
  • Maurício Garcez3/5
  • Tulio Eduardo3/5
  • Fernando2/5

Atletico Paranaense

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Arthur Dias5/5
  • Luiz Gustavo5/5
  • Dantas4/5
  • Jádson4/5
  • Mycael4/5
  • Gilberto3/5
  • João Cruz3/5
  • Juan Felipe Aguirre3/5
  • Leozinho3/5
  • Steven Mendoza3/5
  • K. Viveros2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Chapecoense-sc a 13% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Atletico Paranaense 71%. Atletico Paranaense are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-4.

What is the most likely correct score for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?

1-2 (9.1%), followed by 0-2 (8.5%), 1-3 (8.1%), 0-3 (7.5%) and 1-1 (6.8%).

Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?

The probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Atletico Paranaense score is 61%. Chapecoense-sc have a 7% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atletico Paranaense 34%.

How many goals should we expect in Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?

The model expects 3.73 goals (1.07 for Chapecoense-sc, 2.66 for Atletico Paranaense). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 89%, over 2.5 goals 72%, over 3.5 goals 51%.

When and where is Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense played?

Monday, October 12, 2026 at 23:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 30. Venue: Arena Condá, Chapeco.

What form are Chapecoense-sc and Atletico Paranaense in?

Chapecoense-sc: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 9 conceded). Atletico Paranaense: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 12 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Atletico Paranaense?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Chapecoense-sc, 2 for Atletico Paranaense and 3 draws. The most recent ended Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Chapecoense-sc (Apr 12, 2026).

What was the Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Chapecoense-sc 1-4 Atletico Paranaense. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Atletico Paranaense was the model's favourite outcome (71%). The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (5.4%), behind 1-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (61%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (72%): correct.

How is the Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.07 for Chapecoense-sc, 2.66 for Atletico Paranaense) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained