Brasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 21:30 (UK time)
Palmeiras vs Corinthians: 4-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Palmeiras 4-1 Corinthians. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Palmeiras was the model's favourite outcome (73%). The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (4.6%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (63%): correct.
Match analysis
Palmeiras vs Corinthians was played on Sunday, October 11, 2026 (Brasileirão Série A, matchday 30). Venue: Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo. Before kick-off, our model gave Palmeiras a 73% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Corinthians 11%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (11.5%), ahead of 1-0 (9.5%) and 3-0 (9.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Palmeiras have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Corinthians have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with Palmeiras. On average Palmeiras score 1.20 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Corinthians score 0.80 and concede 1.80. In the table, Palmeiras sit 2nd with 60 points from 29 games, Corinthians 16th with 32 points from 29. 14 places separate the two sides.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Palmeiras, 2 for Corinthians and 2 draws. The most recent ended Corinthians 0-0 Palmeiras (Apr 12, 2026). Palmeiras out or doubtful: Jefte and Paulinho. Corinthians: Andre Ramalho (doubtful), A. Carrillo, Dieguinho, Joao Pedro, Kayke, Z. Labyad, R. Garro (suspended) and Kaio Cesar (suspended). In double chance terms, "Palmeiras or draw" stands at 89%, "Corinthians or draw" at 27% and "no draw" at 84%.
In short : Our model backs Palmeiras to edge Corinthians (73% probability). On recent form, Palmeiras have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Corinthians are struggling (4 losses in 5). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 63%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Palmeiras – Corinthians. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 47% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Palmeiras 2-0 Corinthians | 11.5% |
| Palmeiras 1-0 Corinthians | 9.5% |
| Palmeiras 3-0 Corinthians | 9.4% |
| Palmeiras 2-1 Corinthians | 9.3% |
| Palmeiras 1-1 Corinthians | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.25 goals in total (2.44 for Palmeiras, 0.81 for Corinthians): over 2.5 goals has a 63% probability and both teams to score 51%. Everything points to an open game. Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Corinthians in 9%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Palmeiras expected goals | 2.44 |
| Corinthians expected goals | 0.81 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% |
| Palmeiras clean sheet | 45% |
| Corinthians clean sheet | 9% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Palmeiras
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Bahia · Brasileirão Série A | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Gremio · Brasileirão Série A | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | LDU de Quito · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Sao Paulo · Brasileirão Série A | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | LDU de Quito · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-0 | W |
Corinthians
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Internacional · Brasileirão Série A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fluminense · Brasileirão Série A | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P. · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Flamengo · Brasileirão Série A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P. · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 2 | 60 | 29 |
| Corinthians | 16 | 32 | 29 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Corinthians 0-0 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Corinthians 0-1 Palmeiras | Paulista - A1 |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Corinthians 1-1 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Palmeiras 0-2 Corinthians | Copa Do Brasil |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Corinthians 1-0 Palmeiras | Copa Do Brasil |
Out and doubtful
Palmeiras
- Jefte (out)
- Paulinho (out)
Corinthians
- Andre Ramalho (doubtful)
- A. Carrillo (out)
- Dieguinho (out)
- Joao Pedro (out)
- Kayke (out)
- Z. Labyad (out)
- R. Garro (suspended)
- Kaio Cesar (suspended)
Most regular starters
Palmeiras
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Carlos Miguel5/5
- Lucas Evangelista5/5
- A. Barboza4/5
- Andreas Pereira4/5
- Marlon Freitas4/5
- Murilo4/5
- Vitor Roque4/5
- A. Giay3/5
- J. Arias3/5
- J. Piquerez3/5
- Bruno Fuchs2/5
Corinthians
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Hugo Souza5/5
- Gustavo Henrique4/5
- Matheus Bidu4/5
- Matheuzinho4/5
- Gabriel Paulista3/5
- Kaio César3/5
- M. Depay3/5
- R. Garro3/5
- Raniele3/5
- A. Carrillo2/5
- Allan2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Fluminense 4-0 CoritibaOct 9, 2026
- Vasco DA Gama 0-0 RemoOct 10, 2026
- Sao Paulo 2-1 VitoriaOct 11, 2026
- Atletico-MG 2-1 SantosOct 11, 2026
- Flamengo 1-0 FluminenseOct 11, 2026
- Gremio 1-1 InternacionalOct 11, 2026
- Bahia 1-0 MirassolOct 11, 2026
- Coritiba 1-1 BotafogoOct 12, 2026
- Chapecoense-sc 1-4 Atletico ParanaenseOct 12, 2026
- RB Bragantino 4-2 CruzeiroOct 13, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Palmeiras vs Corinthians prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Palmeiras a 73% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Corinthians 11%. Palmeiras are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
2-0 (11.5%), followed by 1-0 (9.5%), 3-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.3%) and 1-1 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
The probability that both Palmeiras and Corinthians score is 51%. Palmeiras have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Corinthians 9%.
How many goals should we expect in Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
The model expects 3.25 goals (2.44 for Palmeiras, 0.81 for Corinthians). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 84%, over 2.5 goals 63%, over 3.5 goals 41%.
When and where is Palmeiras vs Corinthians played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 21:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 30. Venue: Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo.
What form are Palmeiras and Corinthians in?
Palmeiras: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 3 conceded). Corinthians: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Corinthians?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Palmeiras, 2 for Corinthians and 2 draws. The most recent ended Corinthians 0-0 Palmeiras (Apr 12, 2026).
What was the Palmeiras vs Corinthians result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Palmeiras 4-1 Corinthians. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Palmeiras was the model's favourite outcome (73%). The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (4.6%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (63%): correct.
How is the Palmeiras vs Corinthians prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.44 for Palmeiras, 0.81 for Corinthians) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Palmeiras predictions
- All Corinthians predictions
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Palmeiras cards
- Corinthians cards
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology