Brasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 01:00 (UK time)
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Sao Paulo take on Vitoria on Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 01:00 (UK time), a Brasileirão Série A, matchday 30 fixture. Venue: Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo. Our model makes Sao Paulo clear favourites: a 63% chance of winning, against 21% for the draw and 16% for Vitoria. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (10.7%), followed by 1-0 (10.4%) and 2-1 (9.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Sao Paulo have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 5. Vitoria have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 9. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Sao Paulo score 1.00 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Vitoria score 1.00 and concede 1.80. In the table, Sao Paulo sit 11th with 36 points from 27 games, Vitoria 13th with 33 points from 28. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Sao Paulo have averaged 1.67 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.14 for Vitoria.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sao Paulo, 1 for Vitoria and 0 draws. The most recent ended Vitoria 2-0 Sao Paulo (Apr 11, 2026). Sao Paulo out or doubtful: D. Bobadilla, Lucas Moura, Lucca Marques, Luis Osorio (suspended) and Pablo Maia (suspended). Vitoria: Anderson, Baralhas, Camutanga, Dudu, Edu, Fabiano, Nathan Mendes and Ramon. In double chance terms, "Sao Paulo or draw" stands at 84%, "Vitoria or draw" at 37% and "no draw" at 79%.
In short : Sao Paulo are favourites for this Sao Paulo v Vitoria, with a 63% win probability from our model. In the table, Sao Paulo (11th, 36 pts) host Vitoria (13th, 33 pts). One to watch: Vitoria will be without Anderson and Baralhas.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sao Paulo – Vitoria. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (10.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sao Paulo 2-0 Vitoria | 10.7% |
| Sao Paulo 1-0 Vitoria | 10.4% |
| Sao Paulo 2-1 Vitoria | 9.9% |
| Sao Paulo 1-1 Vitoria | 9.7% |
| Sao Paulo 3-0 Vitoria | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.05 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 0.93 for Vitoria, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 57% and "both teams to score" at 53%. Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Vitoria in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sao Paulo expected goals | 2.05 |
| Vitoria expected goals | 0.93 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% |
| Sao Paulo clean sheet | 40% |
| Vitoria clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Sao Paulo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Boca Juniors · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Palmeiras · Brasileirão Série A | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Boca Juniors · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Atletico-MG · Brasileirão Série A | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | RB Bragantino · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
Vitoria
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cruzeiro · Brasileirão Série A | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Mirassol · Brasileirão Série A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Gremio · Brasileirão Série A | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama · Copa do Brasil | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Atletico-MG · Brasileirão Série A | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 11 | 36 | 27 |
| Vitoria | 13 | 33 | 28 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Vitoria 2-0 Sao Paulo | Brasileirão Série A |
Out and doubtful
Sao Paulo
- D. Bobadilla (out)
- Lucas Moura (out)
- Lucca Marques (out)
- Luis Osorio (suspended)
- Pablo Maia (suspended)
Vitoria
- Anderson (out)
- Baralhas (out)
- Camutanga (out)
- Dudu (out)
- Edu (out)
- Fabiano (out)
- Nathan Mendes (out)
- Ramon (out)
Most regular starters
Sao Paulo
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Artur4/5
- Luciano4/5
- Rafael4/5
- Sabino4/5
- Danielzinho3/5
- Domingos Duarte3/5
- Lucas Ramon3/5
- Marcos Antônio3/5
- Robert Arboleda3/5
- Gustavo Santana2/5
- Iago Borduchi2/5
Vitoria
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Tarzia5/5
- Lucas Arcanjo5/5
- Erick4/5
- Jamerson4/5
- Caique Goncalves3/5
- E. Britez3/5
- Luan Candido3/5
- Matheuzinho3/5
- Rene3/5
- Caca2/5
- Cacá2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Remo – GremioOct 7, 2026
- Internacional – CorinthiansOct 7, 2026
- Vitoria – Chapecoense-scOct 8, 2026
- Botafogo – Vasco DA GamaOct 8, 2026
- Cruzeiro – Sao PauloOct 8, 2026
- Santos – FlamengoOct 8, 2026
- Atletico Paranaense – Atletico-MGOct 9, 2026
- Fluminense – CoritibaOct 9, 2026
- Palmeiras – BahiaOct 9, 2026
- Vasco DA Gama – RemoOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sao Paulo vs Vitoria prediction?
Our AI gives Sao Paulo a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Vitoria 16%. Sao Paulo are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
2-0 (10.7%), followed by 1-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%), 1-1 (9.7%) and 3-0 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
The probability that both Sao Paulo and Vitoria score is 53%. Sao Paulo have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Vitoria 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
The model expects 2.98 goals (2.05 for Sao Paulo, 0.93 for Vitoria). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 80%, over 2.5 goals 57%, over 3.5 goals 35%.
When and where is Sao Paulo vs Vitoria played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 01:00 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 30. Venue: Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo.
What form are Sao Paulo and Vitoria in?
Sao Paulo: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 5 conceded). Vitoria: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Vitoria?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sao Paulo, 1 for Vitoria and 0 draws. The most recent ended Vitoria 2-0 Sao Paulo (Apr 11, 2026).
How is the Sao Paulo vs Vitoria prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.05 for Sao Paulo, 0.93 for Vitoria) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sao Paulo predictions
- All Vitoria predictions
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology