Brasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 21:30 (UK time)
Flamengo vs Fluminense: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Flamengo 1-0 Fluminense. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Flamengo at 65%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (82%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (89%): missed.
Match analysis
Flamengo and Fluminense met on Sunday, October 11, 2026, a Brasileirão Série A, matchday 30 fixture. Venue: Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro. Before kick-off, our model gave Flamengo a 65% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Fluminense 20%. On the correct score, 3-1 comes out on top (6.3%), followed by 3-2 (6.0%) and 2-1 (5.7%).
Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Fluminense have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Flamengo score 1.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Fluminense score 2.20 and concede 1.20. In the table, Flamengo sit 1st with 61 points from 29 games, Fluminense 3rd with 51 points from 29. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Flamengo have averaged 2.62 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.38 for Fluminense.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Flamengo, 2 for Fluminense and 1 draw. The most recent ended Fluminense 1-2 Flamengo (Apr 12, 2026). Flamengo out or doubtful: Ayrton Lucas, Evertton Araujo, Leo Ortiz, G. Varela, G. de Arrascaeta and Jorginho (suspended). Fluminense: Alisson, G. Cano, A. Canobbio (suspended), John Kennedy, Matheus Reis, Nonato (suspended) and Rene (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Flamengo or draw" stands at 80%, "Fluminense or draw" at 35% and "no draw" at 85%.
In short : Flamengo are tipped by our AI model in this Flamengo v Fluminense (65%). In the table, Flamengo (1st, 61 pts) host Fluminense (3rd, 51 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 3-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Flamengo – Fluminense. 3-1 is the single most likely scoreline (6.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 29% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Flamengo 3-1 Fluminense | 6.3% |
| Flamengo 3-2 Fluminense | 6.0% |
| Flamengo 2-1 Fluminense | 5.7% |
| Flamengo 2-2 Fluminense | 5.5% |
| Flamengo 4-1 Fluminense | 5.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 3.27 expected goals for Flamengo and 1.91 for Fluminense, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 89% and "both teams to score" at 82%. Goals look likely in this one. Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 15% of scenarios, Fluminense in 4%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Flamengo expected goals | 3.27 |
| Fluminense expected goals | 1.91 |
| Both teams to score | 82% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 97% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 89% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 76% |
| Flamengo clean sheet | 15% |
| Fluminense clean sheet | 4% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Flamengo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Santos · Brasileirão Série A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | RB Bragantino · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Independiente del Valle · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Corinthians · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Independiente del Valle · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2-0 | W |
Fluminense
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Coritiba · Brasileirão Série A | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Corinthians · Brasileirão Série A | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Platense · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atletico-MG · Brasileirão Série A | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Platense · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 1 | 61 | 29 |
| Fluminense | 3 | 51 | 29 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Fluminense 1-2 Flamengo | Serie A |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Fluminense 0-0 Flamengo | Carioca - 1 |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Fluminense 2-1 Flamengo | Carioca - 1 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Fluminense 2-1 Flamengo | Serie A |
| Jul 20, 2025 | Flamengo 1-0 Fluminense | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Flamengo
- Ayrton Lucas (out)
- Evertton Araujo (out)
- Leo Ortiz (out)
- G. Varela (out)
- G. de Arrascaeta (out)
- Jorginho (suspended)
Fluminense
- Alisson (out)
- G. Cano (out)
- A. Canobbio (suspended)
- John Kennedy (out)
- Matheus Reis (out)
- Nonato (suspended)
- Rene (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Flamengo
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Rossi4/5
- Ayrton Lucas4/5
- J. Carrascal4/5
- Jorginho4/5
- Samuel Lino4/5
- E. Pulgar3/5
- Emerson Royal3/5
- Léo Ortiz3/5
- Léo Pereira3/5
- Lucas Paquetá3/5
- Bruno Henrique2/5
Fluminense
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Fábio4/5
- Hulk4/5
- Martinelli4/5
- Thiago Silva4/5
- Guga3/5
- Nonato3/5
- PH Ganso3/5
- Agustín Canobbio2/5
- Guilherme Arana2/5
- Hércules2/5
- J. Millán2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Fluminense 4-0 CoritibaOct 9, 2026
- Vasco DA Gama 0-0 RemoOct 10, 2026
- Sao Paulo 2-1 VitoriaOct 11, 2026
- Atletico-MG 2-1 SantosOct 11, 2026
- Gremio 1-1 InternacionalOct 11, 2026
- Palmeiras 4-1 CorinthiansOct 11, 2026
- Bahia 1-0 MirassolOct 11, 2026
- Coritiba 1-1 BotafogoOct 12, 2026
- Chapecoense-sc 1-4 Atletico ParanaenseOct 12, 2026
- RB Bragantino 4-2 CruzeiroOct 13, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Flamengo vs Fluminense prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Flamengo a 65% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Fluminense 20%. Flamengo are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Flamengo vs Fluminense?
3-1 (6.3%), followed by 3-2 (6.0%), 2-1 (5.7%), 2-2 (5.5%) and 4-1 (5.1%).
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
The probability that both Flamengo and Fluminense score is 82%. Flamengo have a 15% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Fluminense 4%.
How many goals should we expect in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
The model expects 5.18 goals (3.27 for Flamengo, 1.91 for Fluminense). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 97%, over 2.5 goals 89%, over 3.5 goals 76%.
When and where is Flamengo vs Fluminense played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 21:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 30. Venue: Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro.
What form are Flamengo and Fluminense in?
Flamengo: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded). Fluminense: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Fluminense?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Flamengo, 2 for Fluminense and 1 draw. The most recent ended Fluminense 1-2 Flamengo (Apr 12, 2026).
What was the Flamengo vs Fluminense result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Flamengo 1-0 Fluminense. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Flamengo at 65%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (82%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (89%): missed.
How is the Flamengo vs Fluminense prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.27 for Flamengo, 1.91 for Fluminense) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Flamengo predictions
- All Fluminense predictions
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
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- Our methodology